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Sunday, February 17, 2013

StockWatch (Feb 18-22, 2013): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 6542    Support: 6470/6400)

The index has moved higher last week, however, RSI was not able to move the same way.  There is a now bearish divergence in the chart between the index and the RSI.  This means put a hold on the buying and start selling portions of your short term positions.

The good side of this is that the Weekly chart does not share the same sentiment with the daily chart.  No bearish divergence is seen on the weekly, which means the upcoming bearish signals in the daily chart maybe for the short term only.

The 10 day moving average is currently providing support. If broken, the next support level would be near 6400.

Sunday, February 10, 2013

StockWatch (Feb 11-15, 2013) : PSEi, CEB

PSEi (Chart : Daily   Resistance: 6490    Support: 6350/6270)

The index moved sideways last week which possibly indicates that the upward momentum is starting to lose strength.

It is now just above an existing resistance line connecting the peaks of Jan-May 2012. This now proves to be a strong resistance considering the sideways movement of the index last week.

For the coming week, watch out for possible bearish divergence where the index continues to move higher, but the RSI or MACD moves lower. If such an event happens, the next support would be around 6350 which is the 10 day moving average and 6270, the support line connecting the peaks of Jul 2012 and Jan 2013.

CEB (Chart: Daily Resistance: 67.50    Support: 66/65)

I have been following CEB for the past months and this might be a very fulfilling stock if a break out happens.   CEB is now in the brim of its resistance line at 67.65. Looking at the chart it is very visible that this is a rounding bottom considering the previous downward trend.

There are 2 possibilities for this stock.  One is that it is possible that this stock might breakout OR second, if the resistance line is strong, this would form a cup and handle formation, bringing the price downwards to form the handle part.  On both cases, breakout point is still the same at around 67.50 and the target price is around 83.

Sunday, January 27, 2013

StockWatch (Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2013): PSEi, PNX

 PSEi Weekly
 PSEi (Chart: Daily  Resistance: 6240  Support: 6080)

In the past 2 weeks the index has been volatile.  We can see in the chart that for the past 2 weeks, the index has been intermittently, for every 2-3 days, having a black(red) candle stick.  If that pattern is reliable, the index is due for another black candle within the week.

Even if we do not base it from the above observed pattern, we can already visibly see a decline of confidence with the market, seeing the RSI, MACD and the Stochastics moving down.

In the weekly chart, a possible hanging man is spotted on the last trading day of last week.  A hanging man is a bearish reversal.  The indicators does not clearly display the same sentiment as all of them are moving upwards, but looking closer, we can see that the RSI is now very much overbought giving credence to the hanging man candle stick.
Right now the index is moving in a tight upward channel between 6080 to 6240.  The 10 day Moving average is also in the same range.  The 10-day moving average has not been breached lower since the start of the year, so we are expecting this to provide strong support.  The index may still move higher next week, but do watch out if the index moves lower than the 10day moving average.  Hold the buying for the moment, and if the index moves lower than the 10 day moving average, start to sell. 

PNX (Chart: Daily  Resistance: 10.40   Support: 9.60)

PNX caught my attention due to its unusual white candle accompanied by large volume.  This seems to be a breakout of a channel, but its target price is already reached.  Plus, the RSI is now overbought.

This does present a possible opportunity, but it is not yet recommendable to buy now given that the RSI is overbought and the target has been reached.  It is possible however that this transforms to a flag pattern, so do watch out for that possibility.

For those who are risk averse, you can buy this stock as long as it does not go below support of 9.60.

Sunday, January 13, 2013

StockWatch (Jan 14-18, 2013) : PSEi, TA, NIKL

 PSEi (Chart: Daily    Resistance: 6100    Support: 5960/ 5860)

The index has once again created a new high last week.   We are generally still on an upward trend, but expect some downward to sideways movement by next week.

Next support is near 5960 which is the 10 day Moving Average.

A rising wedge seems to be forming in the index.  This is a bearish indicator, so keep an eye on other signals that may form in the coming weeks such as bearish divergence from the MACD.

 TA (Chart: Daily  Resistance: 1.50/1.55   Support: 1.40/1.30)

TA has a flag formation, with a target price of near 1.55.   As of current, the stock is now near its target price.  There may still be some push left in this stock and may still reach the 1.50 to 1.55 level by this week.   For those who have this stock, be prepared to get off the ride near 1.50.

NIKL (Chart: Daily  Resistance:  20.65   Support: 19.20)

NIKL has been continuously rising since last week and even showed bullishness by creating a gap up on the last trading day.

A very good thing for this stock is that there is a large amount of volume supporting the upward movement.   So expect the stock to rise further.

This stock is a buy, however,  looking at the RSI, the stock is now very much overbought, so expect downward to sideways movement.

For those who would like to take part of the action, I would recommend buying the dips as long as the stock can keep its price above 18.50.  Sell if it goes lower than 18.50

Sunday, December 16, 2012

StockWatch (Dec 17-21, 2012): PSEi, PX

 PSEi (Chart: Daily    Resistance: 5866   Support: 5650/5511)

Looks like the index has now reached its highest level for the year when it started to fall last week.   The downward action of the index was expected because the market has long been overbought since the last week of November.

The index crossed lower than the 10 day Moving Average, the next support would be near 5650 which is an extension of the previous support since last Sept and then the next support level is at 5511 which is the 50 day Moving Average.

Expect a long sideways movement for the index on January once it finds support because it is unlikely that the index will continue with its recent bullish action, given that the MACD, RSI and Stochastics are all going or opening down.

PX (Chart: Daily   Resistance: 15.30    Support: 14.50/12.50)

Since the mine tailings disaster that PX got involved in, the stock was something to avoid.   But with the recent market activity for this stock,  it seems that there a new lease on this stock’s chances of making some big money.

Recent market activity showed a possible inverse head and shoulder formation. The left shoulder and head is already formed, and with the brewing downward action of the market, it might help with the right shoulder formation. But breakout might not happen until after 2 months, as the left shoulder and head took about 2 months each to be formed.

This is definitely something to watch out for, not just for the possible area formation, but also because of the recent spike in volume since the start of December.

If the inverse head and shoulder materializes, the possible upside target would be somewhere near 18.00.