StockWatch (Apr 02-04, 2007) MEG, MIC, MBT, AJO

MEG (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.45 Support: 3.25 )

MEG earlier had an ascending triangle formation with resistance at 3.30. The stock had a failed breakout from the ascending triangle as price brokeout with low volume. However, a second ascending triangle is still intact with resistance at 3.45. The price movement is currently near the apex of the triangle, if it does not break out, expect either a sideward to down movement. If it does break out from resistance, it has to have above 200M in volume for it to be considered a valid breakout. Target price is 4.30. Recommendation: Buy near support level of 3.20-3.30. Cut loss at 3.0

MIC (Chart :Daily Resistance: 2.70 Support: 2.30/2.40)

MIC previously had a failed breakout from a symmetrical triangle. The volume on the breakout was significant, but insufficient to call it a proper breakout. What the failed breakout did was to further widen the symmetrical triangle. Target price is now at 4.90. This week price may move side to downward. Recommendation: Watch out for support levels at 2.40 and 2.30, increased trading volume at those price levels of around 10M may suggest a good support. Buy at those levels. If incase price moves down cut loss at 2.25

MBT (Chart: Daily Resistance:63.50/ 66/68 Support: 62)

MBT broke out from a very small ascending triangle with resistance at 62. Target price is at 68, but resistance may be encountered along the way up at 63.50 and 66 level. Profit is small, but nonetheless it price is able to break resistance at 68, this means that price is now resuming its upward move. Otherwise, price may consolidate further between 60-68 level. Recommendation: Buy, but watch out if price fall back in the triangle.


AJO (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.075 Support: 0.070)

AJO seems to be forming a head and shoulder pattern. The highest point of the right shoulder has been formed. Now just waiting for the neckline to be breached.

In Retrospect: MERB, MEG, UPM, MIC, AEV

MERB ‘s “looks as if” did not materialize. MACD crossed upward but went back below the signal line while price moved sideways and has touched the support line on the last trading day. On the coming week watch out for the support line at 69 and the resistance line at 72, the symmetrical triangle is intact, but it is now near the apex, so there is a high probability of the symmetrical triangle being invalidated.

MEG had a failed break out from an ascending triangle. Price broke the resistance line at 3.30. Volume only came in when the price pulled back below 3.30. Interestingly, even if the ascending triangle is invalidated, we can expect another ascending triangle in the formation, with resistance at 3.45 and target price at 4.30


UPM also had a failed break out from a symmetrical triangle. Volume was very high on the breakout day, but it failed to sustain the upward move. Price went as high as 0.85 but closed just 1 fluc above the opening price. It is now forming an ascending triangle with reisstance at 0.85. But the volume from the failed break out somehow invalidates the pattern. Who knows maybe the price movement will just inch its way up as MACD is already indicated a buy long signal.

MIC moved sideways before the failed breakout from a symmetrical triangle. Volume was significantly high on breakout point, but was not sufficient enough to indicate a proper break out. Price may still move down to sideways this coming week so watch out for support at 2.40, 2.30, 2.18 and 1.96. Though the previous symmetrical triangle resistance did not hold, we can still expect a symmetrical triangle, but this time with a higher resistance level.
AEV tried to rally on the last day of trading, closing higher but has signs of weakness as it was unable to move above the 65 day MA. We could expect some up to sideways movement this week with the 65 day MA acting as resistance, but if the following trading days is still accompanied with low volume, the descending triangle still holds, the rally just adjusted the resistance level. A chance to cash in on the rally, better to be liquid than sorry.

StockWatch (Mar 26-30, 2007) : MERB, MEG, UPM, MIC, AEV

MERB (Chart: Daily Resistance: 62/73-75 Support: 67.50)

MERB looks as if forming a symmetrical triangle. MACD looks as if it is about to cross over, but all of this is just “looks as if”. Watch out for resistance at 73, if price breaks out, target price is around 85. The breakout has to have a big volume as it has to struggle on its upward move because of the resistance along the way up. Recommendation: Buy only on break out. Watch out for resistance levels 75, 78, 80

MEG (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.30 Support: 3.10/2.95)

MEG is forming an ascending triangle. A gap up with high volume happened last Thursday which suggests the stocks strength. MACD has slightly crossed above signal line. The resistance at 3.30 needs to be broken with high volume, otherwise if there was no volume, the movement might be stopped by another resistance at 3.45 and may probably move back in the triangle. Recommendation: Buy on breakout only. The price movement is very near the apex of the ascending triangle, there is still a high possibility that the formation might be invalidated. The target price is at 4.0. You can still buy this stock at 3.50-3.60 level for a substantial gain if it does move with volume. Volume needs to be higher than 100M trades.

UPM (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.80 Support: 0.69)

UPM is forming a symmetrical triangle. But it currently needs to break out from the 65 day MA. This stock still has a long way to go before breaking out. One good sign though is the MACD crossing over signal line and the upcoming cross above the zero line. Let’s see what would happen in a couple of days. This stock could either move above 65 day MA or trade the range within the 65 day MA and the support line.

MIC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.50 Support: 1.58)

MIC is also forming a symmetrical triangle. At this point, the price may still trade the range. If price does break out of the area pattern, target price is 4.80. Recommendation: Buy only on break out. Buying at this level might be costly as price may still move either sideways or downwards.

AEV( Chart : Daily Resistance: 8.30 Support: 7.80)

AEV is forming a descending triangle. Price movement has respected the resistance line on 2 occasions and on the last 2 trading days; AEV touched resistance for the third time at 8.40 and fell back. At this point, the price movement is squeezed by the resistance line and the 65 day MA. Price may either move sideways if the 65 day MA would hold, otherwise the price may move further down, re-testing support at 7.80 or 7.70. If the descending triangle holds and price breaks down, price may move further down to 6.0 level. Watch out for support at 7.20, the long term support, the 130 and 260 day MA on its way down.

In Retrospect : MBT, LND

MBT

The stock went below 58 on the first day of trading but was able to close at 58, which suggests that 58 is a strong support. Resistance was encountered at 62, the previous high. Currently, the MACD is showing a good sign. Next resistance is at 63.50. If 62 would prove to be a strong resistance, there is a possibility that the stock may move sideways. A small ascending triangle is currently emerging from the price movement with resistance at 62. So the patterns to watch out for this stock are a big symmetrical triangle and a small ascending triangle.

LND

Price breached the 65 day MA on 3 days and MACD, which earlier looked as if a crossover will happen, has started to open downwards. The right shoulder hasn’t formed yet, but it looks like its starting to give a bearish outlook.

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StockWatch (Mar 19-23, 2007): MBT, LND

MBT (Chart: Daily Resistance: 62-64 Support: 58/55)

MBT seems to be forming a symmetrical triangle, but at this point it is still too early to confirm this. It may take 1-2 weeks to further confirm the pattern. Currently 58 seems to be a strong support during the last 3 consecutive trading days, though the bears were successful at preventing the price to go up, it could also be deduced, that they were not successful at pushing the price below 58. The 58 level is also the 65 day MA. Recommendation: This stock is eligible for range trading. Buy at 58 sell at 62. Watch out though if price falls below 58, next support is 55 which is the support line since Nov 2006

LND( Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.92 Support: 0.81)

LND seems to be forming a head and shoulders pattern. Left shoulder formed last Jan, head formed near end of Feb. Volume is diminishing. We just have to wait if the right shoulder will appear. The right shoulder might probably have a high of 0.92 which is the resistance formed by the gap down during the global sell off last Feb. If the price breaks out of the resistance, then H&S pattern will be invalidated. Recommendation: This can be a candidate for range trading. Buy at 0.82 and sell immediately at 0.90-0.92. Watch out for the support at 0.81, which is also the 65 day MA. If it breaks down, from support, sell immediately.

In Retrospect : MWC, MB, IMP

MWC

MWC continued to trade at support level of 8.90. The 65 day MA and the 130 day MA are starting to converge. There may be a possibility of the stock to move up this week, but the MA’s might prevent the price to move above 9.30. Still avoid this stock, any upward movement may just be a short bounce. If the upward movement breaks resistance at 9.50, this maybe a good sign that the impending descending triangle is invalidated.

MB

Still waiting for passengers to board the long haul flight.

IMP

Symmetrical triangle area pattern for IMP is still intact, but illiquid.

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StockWatch (Mar 12-16, 2007): MWC, MB, IMP

MWC(Chart: Daily Resistance: 9.80 Support: 8.90)

MWC is dangerously forming a descending triangle. Recommendation: Avoid for now.

MB (Chart: Weekly Resistance: 1.14/1.24 Support: 1.0)

MB caught my attention because of the divergence between the price movement and the MACD movement. Looks like the bearish sentiment for this stock is slowly being replaced by bullishness. This stock is for those who are comfortable with long haul flight.

IMP (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.021 Support: 0.019)

IMP seems to be forming a symmetrical triangle. Possible upside of up to 0.029. Recommendation: Buy at 0.019. Sell if it goes below 0.019

In Retrospect : ISM, TUNA

ISM

The stock opened high and closed low on the first day of trading for last week. It reached to a high of 0.075 and a low of 0.065. The succeeding days were followed by a sell off with minimal volume. Based on the previous week’s volume a lot are still holding on to the stock even if the price moved back in the triangle. Probably, most have a low average price on this stock or may be a lot are still hopeful for this stock. Who knows what the reason is, but as of current there is still a high probably of this stock trying to go beyond 0.0675. But before doing that, the price may experience resistance along the way up, as those who have jittery hands might sell on the first sign of strength to stay liquid in the current volatile market. Recommendation: Hold. If price still goes below the 65 day moving average, sell. If the price is unable to go beyond 0.0675 and continues to consolidate within the week, sell. The momentum might fizzle out if it continues to consolidate.


TUNA

I never thought this stock could go below 1.92, but in this volatile situation, any thing is possible. Stock went as low as 1.88 and the MACD dived back and went below zero. So much for my expectation of momentum picking up when MACD crosses above zero line.

StockWatch (Mar 05-09, 2007): ISM, TUNA

ISM (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.070/0.0775 Support: 0.0675)

This stock may have broken out of an ascending triangle. But I could not confirm if it is a valid ascending triangle as previous volume has been dwarfed by the increase of volume. If this is a valid break out from an ascending triangle, the target price is 0.085. Recommendation: Buy. Watch out if the price pulls back in the triangle.

TUNA (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.28 /2.36 Support: 2.06/2.04)

TUNA doesn’t have an area pattern, but what could be promising for this stock is the MACD’s recent break above the zero line. Signal for going long. This is a stock to watchout for.



General Analysis:
A lot of stock has started to display short term bearishness in their MACD. For the following days watch out for further consolidation. This would be a chance to spot new area patterns.

In Retrospect : PX, LCB, TBGI

PX

Affected by the global sell off, PX went to as low as 3.85. Price may move further down or sidewards for the coming week. Immediate support level is at P4 level, which is also the 65 day moving overage. A move below the P4 support may indicate that the sell off is not yet finished. Next support level is at 3.90.

LCB

This stock went up for another day before encountering a resistance at 0.42, a day before the sell off. But LCB has had better luck than the other stocks during the sell off as the price did not plunge very deep. As of current, the stock seems to be undecided and has currently formed a neutral ground at 0.35. Next support is at 0.32. Price may still move down or sideward for the week. This stock still has the potential to move up, just watch the volume.

TBGI

This stock started a sell off earlier than the global sell off. The volume on the first trading day of the week was big, which suggests that there was an almost equivalent change of hands for this stock. There were more traders who bought downward than those who bought on the up move. Volume on the succeeding days were very little compared to the first day, which also suggests that there were a lot of traders still stuck due to the global sell off. Currently the 2.30 level, which is also the 130 day moving average provides support for this stock. As long as the 2.30 support level holds, there is still a bigger chance for this stock to move up. Although a couple of sell offs might happen as it moves up as other traders who got stuck might want to get out.