StockWatch (Nov 9-13, 2009): PSEi, BPC, FGEN

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2970/3000 Support: 2905/2850)

The index is still on a sideways movement for the past two weeks and the break of the 3000 that I was expecting did not happen. As of current the index is moving within a small range of 2905 and 2970. The MACD seems to suggest an impending crossover from the signal line and this we’d have to wait and see if it will bring more buying in the market to nudge the index from always moving sideways.


BPC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 4.20/ 4.90 Support: 3.70)

BPC had a breakout from a symmetrical triangle. Target price for this stock is around 4.90/5.00. There was large volume on the breakout, but it was followed by a sell down the following day also with significant volume. There was a lack of follow through buying which is quite bothering. MACD is bullishly opening upwards, but the RSI suggests overbought condition. It is possible that this stock may move down to sideways next week. As long as the stock does not go below support at 3.70, this stock is still good to play.

FGEN (Chart :Daily Resistance: 19 Support: 16.75)

FGEN also brokeout from a symmetrical triangle with a very large volume. Target price for the stock is around 23. Watchout for upcoming resistance at 19.00 which is a previous high.

StockWatch (Feb 16-20, 2009): PSEi, MER,WEB, AP, BPC

PSEi (Chart : Daily Resistance: 1970/2004 Support: 1866/1818)

Nothing much happened with the index last week. The index moved sideways, and this time, its seems that the 65 day MA is providing support. Volume last week was unusually large, but the action last week doesn’t give much of a clue as to where the index would move next week. In the US, Barack’s stimulus plan just got passed in the congress, and I’m not sure how the local market would react with this news. But based only from the stochastics, the index would probably move sideways or down next week.


MER (Chart: Daily Resistance: 85.50 Support: 71)

MER had a very surprising 2 week rally at a time when most of the stocks are taking a beating. From the chart we could see this rally contributed to the breakout from an upward moving channel. But not all good things lasts, and the formation of a black candle last Friday is probably an indicator that a correction to this 2 week rally is coming. Next week expect the stock to correct and re-test support at 71.

WEB (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.037 Support: 0.033)

WEB seems to have broken out of a pennant formation. Target price is nearly reached and RSI is very much overbought, so expect a correction by next week. Price is now above the 260 day MA, which is a very welcome sight. However, the RSI and stochastics are pointing to a correction by next week.

AP (Chart :Daily Resistance: 4.75/5.00 Support: 4.10)

AP had a breakout from what seems like an ascending triangle or probably a symmetrical triangle. Target price is at 5.00, but it seems like a correction is about to happen next week with the RSI very much overbought. Watchout if this breakout transforms into a flag or pennant formation. Also watchout for the volume during the correction. If there is little volume on the correction phase, this is a good sign that a lot are still holding on to this stock and that the continuation of the rally may happen after the correction.

BPC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.32/1.70 Support: 0.95/1.08)

BPC also had a breakout of a vey small and slim symmetrical triangle. Target price is at 1.32 which very near the breakout level. It is not advisable to get this stock as of the moment, since the target price is very near and RSI is on overbought level. Watchout if the stock is able to maintain its position above 130 day MA. This would be a very good sign of strength if it is able to maintain a position above the 130 day MA.

StockWatch (Nov 10-14, 2008): PSEi, JGS, BPC

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2070 Support: 1850/1680)

The index continued its rally Monday last week only to be stopped by the support-turned-resistance line near 2030. Looks like this rally is just a short return move to re-test the resistance line and unfortunately the resistance line held its ground. For the succeeding trading days, the index went down and even creating an island reversal.

Aside from the island reversal, we can see that last Friday’s trading created a short white candle. But unfortunately again, the volume was not that significant. With this, it is highly probable that the index will continue to move further down and may probably close the gap that was created by the rally 2 weeks ago.

Still there is no major sign of a reversal from the current bearish conditions. The MACD, even though it has crossed above the signal line, is still in bearish territory. In a bearish market, the RSI at 50 level is usually a resistance area, which for last week has proven such.
For the coming week watch out for the following: a.) If support at 1850 holds, then this is a very good indication of good things to come as a higher low might be formed if the support holds. b.) Otherwise if the index still moves past 1850, then there is a possibility for a double bottom formation if support at 1680 holds. If this materializes, this might be the reversal sign that we are hoping. c.) If the index still moves past the previous low, then were headed for more selling action.

JGS( Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.15/6.00 Support: 2.55)

JGS just caught my attention due to high volume. I’m not sure what is going on with this stock, but technically it is very much oversold and it hasn’t been able to move significantly with the rally last week. I believe there is still a large potential for a rally in this stock. The MACD is about to cross above the signal line and if it does it may probably spur buy signals for some. Resistance is currently at 6.00, which is the level of the 65 day MA and at the same time, one of the points in the resistance line from Aug of 2007. If you are to get in this stock, recommendation would be to hold only for the short term and sell near 6.00

BPC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.70 Support: 0.96)

BPC is showing characteristics of a double bottom formation or a possible descending triangle. Which of the 2 formations will it be is still left to be seen. The double bottom formation has a neckline of 1.70, while the descending triangle formation has support line of 0.96. Just watch this stock for now and wait for either break out or break down.

StockWatch (Jul 28 – Aug 01, 2008): PSEi, MEG, MBT, BPC

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2650 Support: 2507)

Looks like this is it! No, not a bull run, but a respite from the continuous downward movement by the index. The support was respected last week with the index moving higher. We now have a higher low, which is a very good sign. But that is not the only good sign we’re seeing in the chart, last Thursday, the index broke resistance at 2507 with a big spread and large volume! And it looks like the resistance that was broken was part of an ascending triangle with a possible TP @ 2710. The trading last Friday saw the index lower, however, even if it is lower, it was able to stay above the resistance-turned-support line. We will be able to confirm next week if the break will push through or whether it will buck the selling pressure and fall below the support. I am certain that this is now the start of the consolidation phase, so watchout for stocks trading within a range. For those going long on the stocks, this might be the best time to catch some bargain stocks, just look for stocks that are able to form a higher low with good volume.

MEG (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.46/1.66/2.24 Support: 1.10/1.06)

MEG had 2 gap ups for last week, breaking resistance at 1.30. The break was accompanied by good volume and may have broken an ascending triangle with a possible TP @ 1.54. The current price level is already near the TP price, so it is quite late to get into the stock. Since the market is going into consolidation phase, it is good to observe possible peaks and troughs for this stock for a possible range trade strategy. Watch out for the 65 day MA which is also a resistance. The volume for the past 4 weeks has been good so it is also a good indication that this stock is pulling out of the bearish dive.

MBT (Chart: Daily Resistance: 36.50 Support: 30.50)

MBT has been trading within a downward trending channel. Currently a positive divergence can be seen from the chart with the price moving lower while the MACD moving higher. What made this divergence significant is that the it can be seen within a shorter time frame unlike other instances of divergence where in the time frame was wider. Watchout for the MACD of this stock as it is now near the zero line and it is possible that this may have some potential when the zero line is broken. As of current, it is not recommended to get in this stock at the current price level, a good entry point would be near support at 30.

BPC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.66/2.60 Support: 1.16)

BPC had a breakout from a small sideways channel. Possible TP at 1.34, however at the current price level, the TP is already near. Volume has been great at the breakout, so the support may hold if it is tested. Watchout for the 65 day MA at 1.66 as this is a resistance level. Also, for this stock, observe the possible peak and trough to determine the possible range trade strategy.

Stock Watch (June 23- 27, 2008): PSEi, BPC

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2650/2710 Support: 2510/2300)

The index is still trading in a downward channel and still no signs of reversal. As of current, the index is unable to move past the previous support-turned-resistance line from 2003. Trading strategy would be to remain on the sidelines for now.


BPC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.46/2.85 Support: 0.80)

BPC has been on a nose dive since the start of the year. It has been on a very bearish move as it lost more than half of its value within a month. Based from the charts, it can be noted that BPC’s downward move can be attributed to the break down from a head and shoulder formation or probably a break down from a symmetrical triangle formation. Either way, the target price of the break down is at 0.80. This is just an approximation of how low it can go, but it may move lower. This is definitely a stock to be avoided for now. Judging from the consecutive sell down of this stock for the past 4 weeks, I can say that a rally may be seen in the coming days, as the RSI is currently very much oversold.

In Retrospect: COL, BPC, MIC

COL

COL retraced 60% of its recent short upward move placing the stock near the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle. As of current even with the recent downward move, the stock still displays some bullish signs. The MACD is still above the signal line, the MA’s are still in the proper order, and the volume on the downward move were not accompanied by volume as there was more volume on the days when it was bought up, than when it was sold down. If this stock is still bullish, it may be able to pull up above the 65day MA and hopefully consolidate and hold its position above the MA. Otherwise, if the stock has really turned bearish, we can confirm it if it breaks the 10.75 support.

BPC

BPC was unable to hold its position above the resistance-turned-support line and went back in the triangle on the last trading day. This stock may still move further downwards probably reaching 3.80.

MIC

MIC did not break out from the symmetrical triangle last week. Instead it consolidated further. The price action is now near the apex of the symmetrical triangle, there is a higher possibility that we may have to redraw our triangle. What this stock currently needs is for it to consolidate in between 7.30 -7.80, the price levels of the previous gap down last October so as to eliminate resistance coming from those still holding position at those levels. For the coming week, this stock will probably move down to sideways. Watch out for support at 6.10

StockWatch (Dec 10-14, 2007): PSEi, COL, BPC, MIC

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance : 3770/3810/3890 Support: 3680)

The index showed further bullishness as it was able to open higher on the first trading day last week. This bullishness was further supported by the 4 other actions by the index. First is the gap up that happened on Thursday, which led to the second action which is the breaking of resistance line established from the recent downward trend. The third is the closing of the gap from the first week of November and fourth is the MACD crossing above the signal line. The breakout from the resistance line is just a confirmation of the recent upward move, however it is still not a breakout from an area pattern as we do not have a valid area pattern for now. For the coming week, we may see the index consolidate in a sideward movement and may also re-test the resistance-turned-support line. The sideways consolidation is what is best for the index as it has now recovered 60% of the recent downward move from October and it still has not consolidated. Any further upward move might place the index in levels where the bulls might not be able to support.

COL (Chart: Daily Resistance: 14.50 Support: 10.50)

This stock was featured by Bonner at the Absolute Traders website. It has formed a symmetrical triangle with resistance at 14.50. Possible upside target price of 22. For those doing range trading, you can buy at 12.50, sell at 14.50, cutloss at 11.75. As of current the stock is now bullish as it has gone past the 65 day MA and MACD is now above the signal line. Average volume is around 1M, a good break out volume should be above 4M

BPC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 4.65/4.85 Support: 4.35)

BPC seems to have broken out of a symmetrical triangle formation, however I am not quite sure about the volume on breakout. It was accompanied by large volume, but I am not sure whether it is sufficient. The stock is currently re-testing the support line. What we need to see is for the volume to pickup for the coming days. Also what is noticeable in the chart is a head and shoulder formation that did not push thru. However it cannot be considered as a failed head and shoulder as it did not break down, so it is currently more of a symmetrical triangle. Target price for the triangle is around 7. MACD is bullish, but RSI is near overbought, so there might be some further re-testing of support for the coming days.

MIC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 7.50 Support: 6.80/ 5.60)

MIC is also a candidate for a symmetrical triangle. Breakout point is 7.50 Target price is 15. MACD is currently bullish and RSI is just halfway from being oversold. Average volume is around 4M, a good breakout volume is around 20M shares.

In Retrospect: BPC

BPC

BPC broke out of the inverse head and shoulder formation. However, the breakout volume in my opinion was not large enough. The upward move without a large volume means there is a lack of buying sentiment. There would come a point when those who are bullish with this stock become depleted and there will be no one else to buy this stock and of course, will naturally cease from moving further up.

On further analysis of the inverse head and shoulder, I think I may have made a mistake in the interpretation of the right shoulder. Inverse head and shoulder should have light volume on the right shoulder’s decline, but the chart indicates that there was increase in volume in the right shoulder formation. This became obvious to me after overlaying the OBV chart against the price.

At point 1 to point 2, we could see the formation of the head and volume is increasing as evidenced by the upward movement in the OBV line. What went wrong with the inverse head and shoulder is that the decline towards the formation of the right shoulder should happen with a lighter volume; however as what can be seen in the OBV line is that it went lower than the point where the head was, which indicates further intense selling during the formation of the right shoulder. This I think invalidated the inverse head and shoulder formation which is currently confirmed by the low breakout volume.

These are the things to watch out on the succeeding days: 1) Watch out for the price level 4.20-4.30 acting as resistance, this is the 38.2% Fib retracement and also the 130 day MA. 2.) Watch out also for previous resistance line (at 3.70-3.80) which is now the support line. Because there is a lack of volume on breakout, the price may re-test that line and if there really is no further buying sentiment, the price may eventually break below that line. 3.) If price moves below that support line, watch out for the previous low of 3.25 as the next major support line.

StockWatch (Sept 17-21, 2007): BPC

BPC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.85/ 4.20/ 4.85 Support: 3.25)

BPC displayed a divergence of RSI movement against price. Price has formed a lower low and RSI formed a higher low. The MACD is also showing a slight divergence. There is also an inverse head and shoulders formation in the charts of BPC and the volume is confirming the formation. A significant characteristic of an inverse h&s is that volume tends to diminish from the left shoulder to the head. And volume has to increase during rally after the formation of the head. These characteristics are noticeable in the BPC chart which strongly confirms the formation. The break out price level would be around 3.80-390. The critical part for this formation to be valid is that the volume on breakout should be large. Coming from the bottom, it needs to have momentum for it to be able to propel itself to the target price of around 5.0. If the breakout does happen, expect that the support line (former resistance line) will be tested.

In Retrospect : MBT, BPC, TBGI

MBT
MBT’s target price was reached at 60 and a lot may have started to cash in on the profit as price went down to 57. Next support at 56 which is the 50% retracement.

BPC
BPC did not reach the support at 2.50 as bulls came in at 6.65-6.70 and started pushing the price up to 2.95. Next resistance is at 3.00, but it looks like the bulls are still in control and may still push the price up to 3.10 and beyond. Recommendation: Hold. Sell when there is sign of large decrease in volume.

TBGI
Price went down to support at 2.34, but continued to move below 2.30 and went down to 2.28. Recommendation: Wait and observe, price may still move down to 2.15, which is the 130 day MA

StockWatch (Jan 22-26, 2007): MBT, BPC, TBGI

MBT(Chart: Daily Resistance: 60 Support: 56.50)

MBT was able to successfully break the ascending triangle on the first day of trading last week. Price target for MBT is P60. Expect profit taking at 59-60 level. Recommendation: Sell near 60.

BPC(Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.05 Support: 2.50)

BPC brokedown from either an upward channel or a rising wedge. MACD looks like it is going to cross below the signal line. As of current, support is at 2.50, but price may still continue to 2.40. Recommendation: Wait and observe, this stock possible for range trading. Buy at or near 2.50

TBGI (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3 Support: 2.34)

TBGI is a candidate for range trading. Based on the last 4 trading days last week, the volume greatly diminished which might indicate that the selling pressure has fizzled out. Recommendation: Buy near support and sell near the 3 level. If the price still continues to move downward, cutloss at 2.30

In Retrospect : BPC, ABS, ABSP, PLTL

BPC

On last analysis, an island reversal formed but this was invalidated by a large volume by Dec 7 which propelled price way beyond resistance and gapped up twice. Price is currently consolidating, probably for another push upward.

ABS/ABSP

The target price of 21 was achieved. Currently consolidating between 22-20 level. There is a good possibility of price to reach 23 and beyond.

PLTL

The ascending triangle was invalidated as price went down to as low as 5.70. It currently was able to break 6.20 with good volume, but the last day of trading it went down and re-tested the 6.20 resistance. Currently a buy recommendation

StockWatch (Dec 4-8, 2006) BPC, ABS/ABSP, PLTL

BPC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.92/1.80 Support: 1.70)

This stock formed an island reversal. Price is bound for another short move upward, but may fail to break the resistance. Recommendation: Sell near resistance

ABS/ABSP (Chart: Daily Resistance: 23 Support: 19/18.50)

ABS/ABSP has formed similar patterns, possibly a falling wedge. The falling wedge may have a target price of 21. But this is not the only important thing to note for this stock. The formation of a falling wedge is a good sign that the price movement is taking a breather from the move up. Which means price can move higher than the target price at 21. Hopefully, a good support will be formed in the price level of 18.50-19 Thing to watch out for is for the bulls to break the resistance at 23. If it is not broken, the sideward movement may take over the bullish sentiment. Another thing to watch is the support at 65 day MA(red line), if this is broken, the falling wedge may be invalidated and this may be a sign of further bearish events to come. Recommendation: Buy if support holds

PLTL ( Chart: Daily Resistance: 6.20/6.10 Support: 5.90)

PLTL seems to be forming an ascending triangle, but a couple of blocking factor may deter the formation to be validated. The last day of trading brought the price back up to the resistance at 6.10, but the volume is not significant. The 2 day downward movement has more significance as it was accompanied by significant volume. At current, the near by resistance at 6.10 needs to be broken and close the gap. But current MACD might be an indication that this may not materialize. Recommendation: Sell for the moment. Wait for further movement before buying.