StockWatch (Jul 30-Aug 3, 2007): PHISIX, OV, FLI

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3588/3641 Support: 3500/3400)

PHISIX gapped down last Friday affected by the jitters from the US economy. I previously saw a bearish divergence of the MACD, but somehow dismissed it, thinking that I might have mis-interpreted it. Others also found a double top in the chart and a gap down which was the breakdown from the double top’s neckline. If considering the break down from the double top, last Friday’s ending index value has already reached the target value of the double top which is near 3500. It also has touched the second support line from July of last year. If that support line is tested to be strong, then we could expect a up to sideways movement. Otherwise, a break from the 3500 would have the index falling near 3400 which is also be the 130 day Simple MA. Other probably good news for the index is that the RSI fell fast to near 30 level. It might be possible that the RSI oversold level might be reached by next week if selling continues, after which we could expect a bounce up due to RSI’s over sold level. As of Friday’s trading, US market is still down. We could probably see further selling next week for those who were not able to react fast with the market drop.

OV (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.025/ 0.028 Support: 0.023/ 0.021/0.019)


OV caught my attention because of its resilience during last Friday’s market drop. It opened at 0.024 went to as low as 0.023 before closing on the opening price. It is currently forming a symmetrical triangle. The target price for this is at 0.034. Volume is right for a symmetrical formation….. however, price action is very near the apex. If this doesn’t breakout from the symmetrical by next week, this means we have to redraw our chart. Taking a look at the weekly view, OV seems to be a very promising stock as it is forming a cup, with the current symmetrical triangle as the handle. (See chart below OV –Weekly Chart). Target price for the cup and handle formation is at 0.052. With the current jittery market, it is much recommendable to buy only on valid breakout. Breakout point is at 0.025, volume should be above 2Billion shares traded for a very valid breakout volume.

OV-Weekly Chart

FLI (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.98/2.06 Support: 1.90)

FLI also affected by the market drop has formed a hammer last Friday. A hammer found in a previous downward trend is bullish. But how bullish can this get is still a question as MACD is still below signal line. There are cases where in the hammer was just a signal of a short term bullishness and the downward trend would continue. Had this been a white candle, it could have gotten more credibility of a clear reversal (although the color doesn’t really matter for a hammer, it just gives us a better indication that bulls gained if it is a white candle). We need to wait for further confirmation of a reversal. So far we already have the hammer, if MACD crosses over the signal line this could be another confirmation. RSI is also near oversold, so this could also effect a bounce.

In Retrospect: BAL, UW, EVER

BAL

BAL’s break out was met by resistance at 6.40. Affected by Friday’ sell off it went to as low as 5.20. Next support is at 4.90 as long as it is able to trade above that price level, this stock is safe from further sell down. Price movement by next week would either be down or sideways.


UW

Flag or pennant formation did not materialize. It instead gapped down last Friday to as low as 0.33. Next support is at 0.28-0.30. This stock is still good if it trades above 0.30. Price movement by next week would either be down to sideways


EVER

Flag or pennant formation for EVER also did not materialize. It instead gapped down and moved to as low as 0.30. Next support is at 0.28-0.30. This stock is still good if it trades above 0.30. Price movement by next week would either be down to sideways

StockWatch (Jul 23-27, 2007): BAL, UW, EVER

BAL (Chart: Daily Resistance: 6.90/8.75/10.5 Support: 4.95/4.70)

BAL has broken out of its symmetrical triangle. Conservative target price is 8.75, with a possible of a bigger target price at 10.50.

UW (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.49/0.44 Support: 0.38/0.28)

UW broke out of a symmetrical triangle, as well as its upward channel. Target price for the symmetrical triangle is already achieved at 0.49/0.50. Possible flag/pennant formation.

EVER (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.47/0.42 Support: 0.36/0.28)

EVER also brokeout of its ascending triangle with target price nearly reached. Possible flag/pennant formation.

In Retrospect: PCP, NI, JFC, GEO

PCP

PCP went to as high as 0.75 before moving down to as low as 0.53. Price movement for this week may either be side to down. Next support is 52/49/45

NI

NI went only as high as 27 and as low as 23. I was wrong on this one, neither a break out nor an upward move happened. Price continued to move downwards. I guess I was wrong at anticipating an MACD cross above the signal line to propel an upward move, which never happened.

JFC

JFC went to as low as 53 for the week. I was wrong again on the upward move, as price went down. Triangle is still intact so this is still a stock to watch.

GEO

Move down last week and somehow invalidated the ascending triangle. Looks like further downward move for this week.

StockWatch (July 16-20) : PCP, NI, JFC, GEO, PEP, WIN

PCP (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.61 Support: 0.45)

PCP gapped up and brokeout from an upward biased channel (probably a weird looking symmetrical triangle) doubling the price in just 1 week. Target price for this pattern is 0.65. But looking at a larger picture below (PCP-Weekly chart), we can see that PCP has formed a rounding bottom with a target price of 1.14. But this rounding bottom may still have a possibility of moving sideways forming a cup and handle. PCP is definitely a buy.

PCP-Weekly Chart

NI (Chart: Daily Resistance: 30/28.50 Support: 22.50/19.75)

NI has formed a symmetrical triangle with a possible MACD cross above signal line. Price may still move higher this week. The current symmetrical has a target price of 44. But this symmetrical triangle may become an ascending triangle if the previous high of 30 will become a strong resistance. Current price of 26 is a buy considering a resistance of 30. It’s a wait-and-see if this week would be a breakout or just an ordinary continuation of the upward move probably up to resistance of 30.

JFC( Chart: Daily Resistance: 57/61 Support: 54/53)

JFC’s symmetrical triangle is still intact (see StockWatch and In Retrospect for Jul2-6). The price went to as low as 54. For the coming week, price movement is side to upward. Target price for the symmetrical triangle is 68.50. At current price of 54, this is considered a buy.

GEO (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.05 Support: 2.70/2.50)

GEO has shown signs of divergence of the RSI and MACD against price. MACD and RSI has formed a lower low while price has formed a higher low. As of current, there is still room for further upward move. The pattern looks like a small ascending triangle, but the volume last July 5 seems to break the diminishing volume characteristic of an ascending triangle. If the ascending triangle is really valid and breaks out, target price will be at 3.70. With consideration of the divergence, it might be good to lighten your position at that level and buy back later.


PEP might move towards 0.98 possibly forming either a symmetrical or ascending triangle with possible MACD crossover

WIN might move toward 0.75 possibly forming either a symmetrical or ascending triangle, with possible MACD crossover

In Retrospect: PLTL, PAX, PA

PLTL

PLTL was very much affected by the drop in the market. The stock went back in the triangle to as low as 6.90 before being able to regain its previous high of 7.30. At this point, price may either move sideways or up to 7.50-7.70. This is still a buy.

PAX

The price movement was not as fast as I thought it would be. Price was able to move to as low as 22.50 before closing to 23.75 for the week. The target is still 25 and there is still no signs of reversal.

PA

This stock sky rocketed its way from 0.05 to as high as 0.17 within a week. Expect selling to be heavy this week. Possibility of RSI to move down near 70 before moving up again.

StockWatch (July 09-13): PLTL, PAX, PA

PLTL (Chart: Daily Resistance: 7.30/7.50/7.70/7.90 Support: 7.10/6.90)

PLTL had a break out Wednesday last week. Target price is 8.60. High resistance might be encountered near 7.70-7.90 as that was the highest price when the Feb sell down happened. With the very good breakout volume, this is already a buy at 7.30.

PAX ( Chart: Daily Resistance: 24.75/25 Support: 23)

PAX is on the watch list just because the RSI has passed below 30. A bounce from the downward move is imminent due to RSI. There is still no clear reversal from its current downward move, so you must get in and get out immediately. Get in at 23 and sell at 25 for a fast 7% net profit. But you have to be fast for this play. Expect resistance at around 24.75.

PA ( Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.055/0.06 Support: 0.044/0.033)

PA had a remarkable move up with very high volume. This is currently a buy. There is a possibility that this stock may still form a pennant or flag, so buying the dips is also recommended as long as the MACD does not move below signal line. Resistance is expected at 0.06. Looking at the weekly chart (see chart below), this stock seems to be forming a rounding bottom or a cup and handle. Confirmation of this would be if there is high volume when 0.60 is reached.

In Retrospect: ASIA, JFC, SMC

ASIA

ASIA went to as low as 11.50 one of its support level. The symmetrical triangle support line needs to be redrawn a little bit. In my opinion, a strong support level at 11.75 was established last week. Movement for this week could be sideways or up. Price action is very near the apex, so this is still a stock to watch. Buy only on break out.

JFC

Good thing with JFC is that the support line was very much respected on the trading days last week. It went up to as high as the resistance level of 56. MACD has crossed over the signal line which is very good. Another good indicator is a divergence of MACD and price last week. Any of these things could happen next week: a) Sell down to the 65 day MA support of around 54 possibly because of those who would want to cash in already. b.) RSI to move down near 50, or c.) A break out! A satisfactory breakout volume should be above 2M shares. Target price is 67.

SMC

Nothing significant happened, except that the stock moved sideways, forming an ascending triangle. However, the volume does not seem to confirm the formation. Though the rounding bottom is still intact. Still a stock to watch.

StockWatch (July 2-6) : ASIA, JFC, SMC

ASIA( Chart: Daily Resistance: 13.00/13.50 Support: 11.75/11.50)

ASIA is forming a symmetrical triangle with a target price of 23. Currently, price is near support line from Feb, which is a good buy level. Symmetrical triangle is near the apex, so breakout (or down) should happen anytime soon. Otherwise we have to redraw our support and resistance line. Aside from the symmetrical triangle, on a bigger picture, the charts is showing signs of a rounding bottom or cup and handle formation, however this formation is not yet ripe for the picking.

JFC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 56 Support: 52.50/ 49.50)

JFC is forming a symmetrical triangle with target price of 67. Price is currently near the support line from May, so this is currently a good buy level.

SMC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 76.50/80 Support: 72)

SMC is forming a small rounding bottom with resistance at 80. As of now anything could still happen, the rounding bottom formation might be replaced with a symmetrical triangle or ascending triangle depending on the outcome of the trading next week. Buy only on breakout.

In Retrospect: PCP, BSC

PCP

Affected by the correction, PCP has only reached a high of 0.44 before moving down. Currently 0.35 seems to be a strong support, but there is still a possibility that price may move down to 65day MA at around 0.30.

BSC

BSC was affected by the correction and price went back in the triangle. It went to as low as 0.43. As of this point, all indicators for this stock are still ok. There are no signs of divergence, while MACD is in position to cross below the signal line, we still have to wait and see if this will happen by next week. If by next week, price starts to continue its move up once again and MACD desists with its impending cross below signal line, this will be a good sign that the stock may still have steam considering that the move down did not have much volume. But if price action continues its move down or sideways for all trading days next week, this will be a further sign to lighten or close your positions.