Off Topic: Life is too short....

Life is too short..... as the popular adage goes. And last Friday's bombing at Glorieta 2 proved that life is really too short.


I knew 2 of the casualties of the bombing, a former officemate of mine and the wife of my friend from college.


My former officemate and his friends was there just for the usual Friday's lunch out. My friend came from G4, just had his lunch and he was just a curve away from meeting his wife at Glorietta 2. And it was probably all just a matter of seconds between life and death.


Probably if my former officemate had not stopped for the book sale, he might still be alive today. Probably if my friend's wife was able to take a few steps to make the turn, she might have been spared by the blast. Probably, had I forgotten that I have a 1:30PM meeting, I might have also gone to Glorieta 2 for the book sale. Probably, if the night guard at Glorieta 2 took a decision for a double shift, he might have been the one standing on the top of the blast creater.


All just a matter of seconds between life and death. And it makes you think of the reason or purpose for such tragic or fortunate incident to happen.


The only thing I could resolve is that probably it happened for the reason that we be reminded that we should value our life, value those people that we love, value the everyday blessings given to us by God.


So after a losing trade or after a happy meal you've earned from trading, after a day's work, or after a burp from the meal you've had....at the end of the day say a prayer of thanks, go home to your family hug each one of them and say you love them.


Life is too short to forget these important things in our life.

StockWatch (Oct 22-26, 2007): PSEi, TA, SMCB, GEO, PX, MEG

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3835/3863/3896 Support: 3750/3600)

Cautious trading may prevail next week as a reaction to the Glorietta 2 bombing. I think that those spooked by the tragic terroristic act will sell immediately on Monday. However, even if the bombing did not happen, our market is really on its way down for the short term. As seen in the chart, after breaking the previous high, the index was not able to sustain its position above the support line. It eventually moved below the support line and even lower. As of current, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, triggering a sell for the short term. A good picture though that is currently forming in the chart is a falling wedge. Given the recent bullishness from the index’s lowest last August, to its highest this October, it is highly likely that current downward move we are experiencing is a prelude to the formation of the falling wedge. A falling wedge indicates short term bearishness and once it breaks above the resistance line, further bullish sentiment is expected. The target level of the falling wedge is around 3900.

TA (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.52 Support:1.34 )

TA gapped up on Friday with a large volume. Conservative target price of the breakout is at 1.80.

SMCB( Chart: Daily Resistance: 66 Support: 61)

SMCB is exhibiting a bullish divergence. Both MACD and RSI registered a higher high, but the price registered lower highs. Also, it seems that it is forming a symmetrical triangle as of current with 61 as support and 66 as resistance/break out level. The target price for the symmetrical triangle is at 74. This stock may encounter further resistance from the 3 MA’s at the levels of 69-72.

GEO(Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.90 Support: 2.48)

GEO is exhibiting signs of bearish divergence. Both RSI and MACD registered a lower high, but the price still registered a higher high. Sell.

PX (Chart:Daily Resistance: 9.70 Support: 9.50/8.90)

PX is also exhibiting bearish divergence of RSI against price. Price formed a higher high, but RSI formed lower high. Sell.

MEG (Chart: Daily Resistance: 4.60 Support: 4.25/3.85)

MEG will probably exhibit a bearish divergence between RSI and Price. As of current, the peak of the RSI is not yet formed, but considering the price has already gone higher, RSI still has not registered a higher high. We are just waiting for confirmation of the RSI peak forming a lower high. It would be best to sell on rally.

In Retrospect: MIC, PLTL, MPI, WEB

MIC

MIC has had a hard time breaking above the 8.70 resistance level. It was able to do so once, but price fell back in consolidation for the same day. On the other hand even if it was not able to maintain a position above 8.70, price was able to maintain the support on 7.80 level. As of current, MIC is consolidating in a small sidewards channel between 7.80 and 8.70. If price continues to move below 7.80, it would be best to sell considering it has consolidated for 2 weeks and a move towards 7.80 means a stale mate has been broken between the bulls and the bears and definitely the bears win if price goes below 7.80. Next support at 7.70/7.10/6.10.

PLTL

PLTL’s price has consistently closed at or above 8.00 the previous week. It was an unexpected move for PLTL to break the support at around 7.80, bringing the price down to 7.40. It fell 10 cents short of reaching the downward target of 7.30. This is one of the rare occasions that an ascending triangle breaks down. If price would still rally by Monday, this would be a good time to sell, considering that MACD just turned bearish.

MPI

The flag/pennant formation for MPI did not materialize. Instead a spike happened on the second trading day, opening at 5.30, achieving a high of 5.80, before closing again at 5.30. Currently it has found support at 5.00, but price may still move further down or sideways movement for the coming week.

WEB

WEB is dangerously moving near the apex of the symmetrical triangle. A breakout or breakdown may happen soon. Otherwise we have to redraw our charts. As of current the 130 day MA is providing support at 0.0525. I’m more to expect a breakdown from this stock because of the following bearish indicators: 1.) the 65 day MA moving below 130 day MA, 2.) MACD crossing below the signal line. 3.) RSI has consistently stayed near oversold level. The next support levels are 0.0525/0.048/0.042

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StockWatch (Oct 15-19, 2007): MIC, PLTL, MPI, WEB

MIC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 9.20/ 10.00/ 11.50 Support: 7.80/6.50)

MIC gapped up with volume on the first trading day. Target price of P13.00 is not yet reached. Price is currently near 8.10. MIC has currently developed into a flag/pennant formation with a target price of 11.50. Support is currently at 7.80, resistance at 9.20 and 10.00.

PLTL (Chart: Daily Resistance: 8.10 Support: 7.60)

PLTL also gapped up with volume on the first trading day. Currently it is consolidating inside a small ascending triangle with a target price of around 8.60. The target price of P9.00 for the ascending triangle where it broke out from (at 7.30) is still not achieved. Getting in at this point is a little bit risky as price is in its halfway point.

MPI(Chart: Daily Resistance: 5.30/5.50/5.80 Support: 4.60/4.20)

Large volume for MPI for the last 2 trading days. This is a candidate for a flag/pennant formation.

WEB (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.060 Support: 0.055)

WEB is currently in a symmetrical triangle. For the short term, it is consolidating inside an ascending triangle with resistance at 0.060. If it breaks out of the ascending triangle, target price is at 0.075. A breakout from the symmetrical triangle would have a conservative target price of 0.085.

In Retrospect: PAX, TUNA

PAX

PAX moved further down to 10.25 confirming the breakdown from the symmetrical triangle. As of current target price of P9.00 is not yet achieved. The move down has created a downward channel. The bullish divergence is still intact as of the moment, but price may still move further down dragging the RSI and MACD

TUNA

The price for TUNA is currently trapped in between the 65 and 130 day MA. There is still a possibility for a flag/pennant breakout for TUNA with a target price of around 2.25
Support is at 2.00

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StockWatch (Oct 8-12, 2007): PSEi, PAX, TUNA, MIC

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3820 Support: 3600)

..and the Bulls are back! Of the 2 resistance I pointed out last week, we have successfully surpassed one of it, which is the gap down last July and with good increasing volume! As of current we are just a few points away from creating a new high. If the previous high is taken out, that would be the official opening of the bull season, so get ready to ride the bull! Thing to watch out though is the RSI, which is now overbought. Any downward move is welcome as long as the index does not go below 3600.

PAX(Chart: Daily Resistance: 13.50 Support: 11.25)

We have a mixed pattern for PAX. A symmetrical triangle and a falling wedge. The symmetrical triangle broke down with a target price of 9.00. However the breakdown has formed a lower low creating a falling wedge with a target price of 16.50. At this point either of the 2 patterns is a possibility. If by next week price moves above 12.25, the falling wedge is confirmed, otherwise if price moves below 11.25 the symmetrical triangle is confirmed. As of the moment, the chart is exhibiting a bullish divergence with price forming a lower low and MACD and RSI forming a higher low. However, again, this is still not confirmed, if price moves lower, MACD and RSI may follow invalidating the current divergence we are seeing.

TUNA(Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.10/2.60 Support: 1.86)

TUNA brokeout from a small symmetrical triangle and target price was immediately achieveh. However, this can still be a candidate for a flag/pennant formation. We now have the flagpole formation. It is possible that further extension to the pole may form next week.

MIC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 8.10/9.20/11.50 Support: 6.10)

MIC brokeout from a symmetrical triangle. Target price is at 13.00. Upcoming resistance at 8.10 which is the 61.8% Fib retracement and 9.20, the previous high.


General Analysis: A lot of issues already brokeout from a triangle formation or a breakout from a trend with sufficient volume.. Watch out for the following. PA, MBT, PLTL, FDC, WEB

In Retrospect: PLTL, ISM

PLTL

PLTL broke resistance at 7.10 but without volume. However it was able to sustain its upward move toward 7.30 and eventually also broke out from 7.30 with considerable volume. The last 3 trading days were characterized by above average volume. RSI is now oversold and there is a possibility that 7.30 support (previously resistance) will be re-tested.

ISM

I’m unsure of how ISM will fair in terms of the flag/pennant formation. Usually in the local market flag/pennant formation has a duration of 3 days for it to form. For ISM it has already taken 5 days for the formation and still no breakout. Watch out for support at 0.042, price going below that would be a signal to sell.