Happy New Year!!!!

Happy New Year !!!
May 2006 be profitable year for all of us!

Sana lakeh kitah naten ha!

Looking forward for the January Effect! =p

Oi Dod! Google Earth mo nga ako! =p

Nasubukan nyo na ba yun Google Earth na program? Kung ndi pa ito yun link i-download nyo na http://earth.google.com/

Nun nakita ko yun program napa nganga na lang ako.....ang galing! to the detail! Medyo addicting yun software. Imagine....talo pa nya yun Cebu Pacific......lower than the low cost air fare!!! Pede mo pa masabi na nakapag libot ka around the world in 8 minutes!

Yun isa nga ka officemate ko, naaliw din sya. Hinanap nya yun bahay ng tita nya sa states, nun makita nya tinext nya yun tita sya sinabi nya, "uy tita yun kulay ba ng bubong ng bahay nyo eh blue?" . Syempre...gulat yun tita nya har har har!!!

Try mo, pag nasubukan mo maaaliw ka.... naka punta na ako sa CSI LasVegas (huuuu..are u...hu hu hu hu =P) , sa Disneyland, Disneyworld, Holywood!, Japan, atbp! Nakita ko na yun office ni Donald Trump, yun Area 51, yun Airforce Graveyard, yun Washington, Pentagon, Ground Zero! Whitehouse.

Sa pinas medyo malabo yun map, pero sa Angeles, Bulacan at Cavite malinaw yun map. Kita mo yun clark airbase tsaka Sangley point Cavite. Yun iba medyo maaaninag mo lang.

Try mo, sa isang upuan lang mauubos oras mo sa kakaisip ng lugar na pupuntahan!

Tara na! Google Earth tayo! =p

Charting is very subjective

I tried to validate my FPH analysis with the other members of the email group and with their help, they validated that my findings were.... incorrect....hehehehehe =p. But they did open my eyes to the right pattern that they are also seing. So here's the chart courtesy of Joel.

The pattern is a symmetrical triangle from july to november. It already broke out, but it retraced back to the break out level. MAs are providing support.

Stock Watch (Dec 20, 2005)

DISCLAIMER: I am not liable for your sleepless nights should my analysis prove to be wrong and prices heads south =p

FPH
FPH still within a giant symmetrical triangle and an upward channel. Prices are still within 2003 long term support. MACD is starting to get bearish though but it looks like Moving averages are providing strong support. Breakout from the big triangle is at 52 but it may hit a snag at 54 level resistance of the upward channel. If it breaks out of the upward channel, short term target of about 60-65. Cut loss at P50.

SMCB
Still trading within the downward channel. It just gapped up after hitting the support. If it breaks out of the upward channel,it may have a hard time moving to its price target of 95 as 2 MAs are blocking its way. But reward is not that great to park your funds here.

HLCM
HLCM may have already reached the target price from the break out of a small horizontal channel. 4.50 Price level looks like a good resistance, but the upward movement steam may have already poof out as volume was not sufficient in its try to push the price up today. We may expect a short downward price movement. Although it has lost its steam, this stock is still on the bullish outlook as MACD is still on the positive side with MACD above signal line. If you are a bottom picker, good price level to scoop the stock is at 3.90 to 4.10, but the problem is you dont have a predictable upside target. You'll just have to let your profits roll! =p

AEV
AEV Has been trading in an ascending triangle. Bottom pickers would enjoy the price at the current level of 4.80. Break out at 5.20 with target of 6.20. Cut loss at 5.10

PX and PXB
PX and PXB are forming a cup and handle formation. Wait for the break out from the resistance established by the high of the cup

So now place your bets!!!! Banzai!!!!!

Why not a coop in the office?

During last Saturday night's Technical Analysis Graduation cum xmas party I was able to chat with one of my batch mates in the training, Sir Gil Garcia. Sir Gil is a professor at UST and he is currently teaching co-op class at UST. Yup you've heard it right co-op as in co-operative, like credit cooperative, consumer coop etc.

According to Sir Gil, UST is the only school in Manila offering such curriculum. I've heard from news report before that cooperatives will be included in high school curriculum. But I think it did not push thru. But definitely teaching of business/finance/co-op classes in HS is a welcome change.

I have had chances before of hearing presentations on the benefits of coops but I've brushed aside invitations to become a member. My main reason for brushing it aside is pure ignorance. My initial impression on coops is that its something for the "rural", but ofcourse, its pure ignorance. Coop is a vehicle for affordable financing much like your Zero percent installment craze of you credit card and it’s a perfect example of Pinoy's Bayanihan.

Though you might not have heard nor have been part of any cooperative, im sure you've been at one time, part of a "Paluwagan" system. A Cooperative is nearly the same, where in members contribute to build up a fund except it is much more complex ofcourse ;) .

On the course of our discussions, I’ve learned that Sir Gil is managing the fund from the UST teachers coop. I got much more curious on how the coop has been beneficial to the teachers. Since the start of their coop's existence, they have already gathered millions in pesos for their pooled funds. Sir Gil patiently answered all of my queries on coop and i must say he has explained it to me with zest. Lets just say that if cooperative was a religion, I would have been enticed to convert faith =p.

That’s when I got the idea of "why not a coop in our office?” Maybe it’s the first IT company based coop (but I think Intel employees already bagged that title). We already have a Socials Committee in our office tasked with creating FUN for the employees, why not create another group...a Coop group tasked with creating FUNDS for the employee =). This is one thing that the company should take a look into. Its not just beneficial to the employee, but also to the company. A Socials Committee and a Coop Group hand in hand can supplement the employees Social and Financial welfare within the company. Its a powerful tool for the company for keeping valuable human resources intact within the company.

My hats off to Sir Gil Garcia for being such an advocate of Coops. For more info visit the CDA website http://www.cda.gov.ph/

I graduated from the El Dorado Technical Training Institute!!!!

I graduated from the El Dorado Technical Training Institute!!!!

Inay! Gradute na ako!!! Hehehehe kala mo naman talagang nag graduate.. =p Last Saturday yun graduation cum xmas party cum batch get together cum batch2 revalida sa Pioneer Centre ng Technical Analysis Training namin (hindi cosmetology training!).

Nag start last October yun training and it went on for 12 Saturday Night sessions. Parang Alcoholics Anonymous nga ang dating ng first session namin... "Hi Im __ and I have been trading since ____. So far i have been loosing ___ percent of my portfolio. My worst trade was when i bought ___ stock. I bought it at __ and then it went down to __."

So far, ang masasabi ko....must attend yun Technical Analysis Training nila Boss Bonner and Danny. Dami ko natutunan. Nun una, bottom picker lang ako eh. Walang diskarte sa pag trade. Buy High Sell Low yun naging trading system ko most of the time. Pero nun maka attend ako ng training nila......buy high sell low parin ako.....hehehehhe joke lang. I may not be gaining much sa trades ko, pero I know when to enter and when to exit. Yun nga lang, it takes practice to perfect your trading system. Its not as Technical as it sounds like, there are still different variables affecting your trade. Isa na dyan yun emotion, its very hard to control greed and at the same time masyado ding nakaka apekto sa emotion mo kung natatalo ka na sa position mo.

Pero definitely, recommendable yun training nila. You'd get to study how they trade. Both Bonner and Danny are seasoned and very accomplished traders, so you know you are getting your money's worth!

For those who would like to try the training, they will be conducting another training on Jan 2006. Number of sessions might not be the same as what we took kasi they are streamlining their curriculum. If interested, just send an email to bonnerdytoc@yahoo.com

Special thanks nga pala to Accord Capital. Sila ang kumupkop samin during the training. If interested, you can check out their website www.accordcapital.ph

Kain tayo sa Panceteria Lido!!! :)

Lido? Saan yun? Hehehe...Yan din yun tanong ko nun nadinig ko yun. Di kasi ako Chinese eh...kaya tuloy clueless ako sa kwento ni Boss Danny....pero gets ko naman yun joke dun....=p. Bakit ko nga na nabanggit yun? Wala lang...naalala ko lang kasi ulit yun mga kwento ni Boss Danny. Yung tunkol sa mga old Chinese trader na pag bumagsak yun presyo sa existing price ng stock eh call na kaagad ng BUY sa trading.

Bakit ko naalala? Kasi yun MWC pumalya na ng 6.10...gaya nga ng joke ni Boss Danny.. "Uy 6.10...mas mababa sa 6.20....Mulah! Cge a-koh bileh na! Mulah na eh! Bakh-sakh plesyo galing 6.50" =p.

Pero nag research ako ng kaunti, medyo na curious ako kasi kung ano ba talaga yun Lido. Di naman kasi ako Chinese, so di ko alam kung ano ba yun Lido na yun (Nung una akala ko parang soup....Lido Soup ..hehehehehe!). May history naman pala yun kainan na yun, isa sa mga landmarks ng Binondo, heto basahin nyo yun write-up ni Boysie Villavicencio ng Manila Bulletin: Gourmet's Notepad

Di pa ako nakuntento dun, nag conduct ako sa simple interview, para alamin kung lahat nga ba ng Chinese eh alam yun Lido. Ito yun interview ko:

ako: ton alam mo ba yun panceteria lido?
ton: lido?
ako: yup yup.....
ton: sa ongpin ata yun..
ton: basta sa china town..
ton: why?
ako: ahhhh....so kilala pala talaga ng lahat ng chinese yun Lido......wala lang curious lang ako kung popular nga ba sa mga chinese yun.
ton: saan mo na rinig yun?
ton: recently ko
lang na rinig yun eh..
ton: nung pumunta kami ng china town..
ton: kuwento ng erpats ko..
ako: hehehehehe sa nag tuturo samin ng Stocks trading.......Chinese din kasi sya......meron sya ineexplain tapos may kinukuwento sya na mga anecdotes about Chinese traders/businessmen na nagkakape sa Lido. Na curious lang ako kung kilala nga ba...or popular among old chinese yun place na yun
ton: yup...
ton: yun ang starbucks ng mga chinese pre..
ako: oo nga daw. hehehehe......dun pa nga daw nag kakape minsan si Tonyboy Cojuanco eh.....
ton: specialty rin naman kasi nila ang coffe....
ton: mga tumatambay dun pre puro matatanda...
ton: hindi exagerated yun... pinaka bata na siguro dun pre. 50...
ton: avg. mga 60 to 70...
ton: once pa lang ako naka punta dun eh..
ako: oo nga daw....hhehehehehe yun nga yun kwento samin..... panay matatanda daw na chinese yun tumatambay dun.
ton: meron silang parang coffee maker na machine din.. ala starbucks!
ako: tapos nga may coffee maker sila na kakaiba....parang vacuum coffee maker..
ton: yup yun nga..
ton: you should see it...
ton: may sign pa sila dun.. since 1939 pa sila.. imagine... nag survive ng ww2
ton: and.. hindi sila nag expand... i mean outside binondo.. lam ko may 2 branch nila dun eh..
ako: meron nag expand na sila....meron na sila sa ortigas....panceteria lido.... =p
ton: ah meron na?
ton: san sa ortigas?
ako: sa harap daw ng Madison Square Bldg.....san yun?
ton: ah.. malapit sa xavier..
ton: lapit sa greenhills..
ton: nag i-internet ka nanaman ah..
ton: dami mongnababasa dyan..
ako: hehehehehe...na cu-curious lang.....

Down..Da-Da-Da-Down....Da-da-down.....!!!

PHISIX still down....amazing! Lots of counters still falling below their short-long term support levels. MWC was trading at 6.30 last week...with a low of 6.20, but I couldn't believe it that it started to trade at 6.20. This counter is starting to get shaky, Major support is at 6.20, which has been the support since its lowest dip at 5.90. Still waiting if support will hold. As what I've said....DO NOT CHASE a stock!

Good news:
MWC, it is still trading within a symmetrical triangle. At the very least we could still expect something in the future.
For range trading pipol, this would be a great level to enter. Joke nga ni Master Danny abt chinese traders having coffee at Lido: "O bili nah! Bili nah! Mu-lah (mura) na yan, Mu-lah na yan!". But ofcourse, who knows, it still might go lower. =p


Bad news:
Its at the support level 6.20.
MACD is now staring to give a bearish signal.

Big Brother is watching SantaClaus!

Its Christmas time! Found this link where American and Canadian Military Satellite and Radars are tracking SantaClaus' every move from lift off to touch down! Quite amazing =)

Click on the image!

Dont chase a stock!

One of the most important things I learned while trading...... DO NOT chase a stock!.

Simple example :
During the trading hours MWC was bought up to 6.80 with sufficient volume. All postings at 6.80 level was gone in just a minute. I started to observe, next offer price was 6.70. I was vry much tempted to buy at 6.70 as I said to myself, what would go wrong if I buy it at 6.70, since the chunk of supply at 6.80 was gobbled up by one trader alone, I assumed that with that large buy up, this would create a demand at 6.80 and eventually run the price up and may be have a quick day trade. SO ...i bought at 6.70, after buying at that level, everything went quiet. NO ONE followed the buying trader at 6.80!!!! It was a stand still, eye to eye match between 6.70 Ask and 6.60 Bid. And finally the bulls blinked, somebody started to dump at 6.60. Oh....nooooooh!!!!! I was left there all alone at 6.70.....price even went as low as 6.40. My only consolation is that im not the biggest looser!!! The guy who gobbled up the 6.80 chunk was the biggest looser for the day. Im only second to him. =p

Biggest Lesson : DO NOT CHASE A STOCK!!!!!

MWC is now at 6.30, will try to post at 6.20 hoping somebody will dump at that level.

Looking at things from a different perspective

In the technical analysis seminar, Master Bonner and Danny taught us that technical analysis is subjective. Given a chart, each technician would interpret a chart differently.

See this as an example:
Today Dec 15, Phisix not only dipped, but dropped a lot and with suprising volume. In an email exchange from the group that i am subscribed to, one of the members hinted that things look bleak for the local stock market as the index range today dropped way beyond a support line.

I did look at the supplied chart, lo and behold it did cross a valid support line. The "chicken little" in me already called for an all out SELL!!!! And ofcourse emotions are flaring (stock trading is really such an emotional stress, mind you), I have started to compute in my mind the big loss I would be incurring ( why a big loss, kasi I didn't follow my cutloss prices, lagot ako, hahatawin ako ng dos por dos ni master bonner =p ).




But after some time another email was sent by another member, and according to him, the market though bleak , is still on the upside, that its just a major pull down, pero things are still on the upside. Ofcourse with his version of the chart, though it broke down of a support, the index is still intact and on the upside when viewing it from a larger picture

Such a perfect example that charts can be interpreted differently. =) . Medyo na calma ako...hehehehehe.

me-six! about me, stocks, politics and whatever!

Such a pathetic title "me-six!" Ang hirap mag isip ng title ! Trying to be creative lan naman po. Supposedly, yun title would mean its about Me and the Phisix kaya me-six!. Pero pilit....hheheheh pag bigyan nyo na ayaw ko na mag isip ng iba pang title.

Medyo late bloomer ako pag dating sa blog, dami na meron nito pero ako heto nag sisimula pa lang. Di ko naman talaga intention na maging creative writer. Actually ang intention ko lang talaga eh para gawin lang log book ng mga analysis ko sa stock, para magamit sa trading, some sort of a mini-notebook online. At hopefully may mga stock-trader-blog-surfer na mag comment kung tama nga ba o mali ang ginagawa ko. Hehehehe.... so lets roll.....

Disclaimer: Hindi po ako professional trader, trying hard na maging technician lang po.