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Sunday, September 02, 2007

StockWatch (Sept 3-7, 2007): PSEi, CMT, PAX, WIN


PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3390/3460/3500 Support: 3317/3260)

The index has now formed a possible exhaustion gap. This looks like an early warning sign for the index. RSI seems to be contradicting the gaps formed as RSI is still halfway from reaching the 70 mark of being overbought, however considering we are on a bear market, usually the 50 level is already considered an overbought level (as 50 is sometimes the oversold level for a very bullish market) . The Dow closed 100+ pts higher last Friday, the local market may follow on Monday. This means we may reach near 3460 level (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement), within the coming week. There is also the 65 day MA to watch out. Interestingly, if the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement would prove to be a resistance, this may somehow pave the way for the creation of a head and shoulders formation. The left shoulder and the head are already formed (marked as number 1 and 2). We are still waiting for the right shoulder and right neckline to be formed. It’s an exciting wait-and-see for the coming weeks if indeed a right shoulder will be formed. Now try to close your eyes and imagine the right neckline forming near 3460. See it? =) Now try to draw the target price for the H&S formation! Whoaoooo!!!!! Target price is around 4075 level (also the 127.2% Fib extension). Come to think about it, there maybe some possible technical truth to what analysts are predicting of reaching the 4T level by end of the year. Now slap your face! Wake up! This is just a hallucination for the moment. My analysis might be incorrect as the left shoulder might be too short to be a valid shoulder and it is still too early, anything could still happen! Hehehehe! =)

CMT (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.40/1.55 Support: 1.24/1.08)

CMT has been moving with large volume for the whole week. This definitely is a very bullish sign for this stock. There is currently no area pattern for this stock except for a sideways channel. Current resistance is at 1.40 and 1.55 which are 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. MACD is now above signal line which is a bullish sign and RSI is half way to being overbought. The trading last Friday displayed a large upper shadow on the candle which indicates that bears are starting to move in. It is possible that sideways to downward movement may happen this coming week.

PAX (Chart: Daily Resistance: 15/16/17.50 Support: 14/13.25)
PAX may have formed an island reversal. The breakaway gap was accompanied by large volume. What would be good to see is that everyday trading volume would also increase to indicate that there really is momentum in this stock. As of current the large gaps on the downward move may be a cause of concern for traders as this translates to resistance. The stock may move sideways to downward for the coming week. What to look out for the following weeks is the possible formation of a runaway gap.

WIN (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.37 Support: 0.30)

WIN is currently forming a symmetrical triangle. As of current it is still in its early stage of formation. The current level is a good buy level considering it is near the support line and that the target price for range trading at 0.45 is large enough to support a 1:3 risk to reward ratio. However price may still move down to 0.30. If you are able to get in at 0.33, cutloss if it goes below 0.29

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