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Saturday, November 05, 2011

StockWatch (Nov 8-11, 2011): PSEi



PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 4345 Support: 4180/4055)

I honestly have been having a hard time determining where the index would likely go for the past weeks. All those times, I was expecting the index to move lower since the index has unceasingly rallied so high for the first 2 weeks of October, and it again unexpectedly continued rallying up until the end of October. However, last week, it looks like reality is catching up with the index, with all the resistances along the way (e.g. the moving averages, the previous highs and the resistance line of the current upward trend), the index seems to be unable to maintain anymore rallies, as evidenced by the big 2 day drop for last week.

For the coming week, expect the index to move sideways to downward. There may be support for the index at the current level as the moving averages are all converging between 4270 and 4160. If not, next support is near 4180, the support line for the current trend and next is near 4055, the resistance-turned-support line connecting the peaks from Aug to Sep.

Note that the big head-and-shoulder formation (with left shoulder from Sept 2010-Mar 2011, head from Mar-Sep 2011) is still a possibility, so keep your eyes peeled especially as the index nears 3715, the previous low from Sept.

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