StockWatch (Feb 18-22, 2013): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 6542    Support: 6470/6400)

The index has moved higher last week, however, RSI was not able to move the same way.  There is a now bearish divergence in the chart between the index and the RSI.  This means put a hold on the buying and start selling portions of your short term positions.

The good side of this is that the Weekly chart does not share the same sentiment with the daily chart.  No bearish divergence is seen on the weekly, which means the upcoming bearish signals in the daily chart maybe for the short term only.

The 10 day moving average is currently providing support. If broken, the next support level would be near 6400.

StockWatch (Feb 11-15, 2013) : PSEi, CEB

PSEi (Chart : Daily   Resistance: 6490    Support: 6350/6270)

The index moved sideways last week which possibly indicates that the upward momentum is starting to lose strength.

It is now just above an existing resistance line connecting the peaks of Jan-May 2012. This now proves to be a strong resistance considering the sideways movement of the index last week.

For the coming week, watch out for possible bearish divergence where the index continues to move higher, but the RSI or MACD moves lower. If such an event happens, the next support would be around 6350 which is the 10 day moving average and 6270, the support line connecting the peaks of Jul 2012 and Jan 2013.

CEB (Chart: Daily Resistance: 67.50    Support: 66/65)

I have been following CEB for the past months and this might be a very fulfilling stock if a break out happens.   CEB is now in the brim of its resistance line at 67.65. Looking at the chart it is very visible that this is a rounding bottom considering the previous downward trend.

There are 2 possibilities for this stock.  One is that it is possible that this stock might breakout OR second, if the resistance line is strong, this would form a cup and handle formation, bringing the price downwards to form the handle part.  On both cases, breakout point is still the same at around 67.50 and the target price is around 83.

StockWatch (Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2013): PSEi, PNX

 PSEi Weekly

 PSEi (Chart: Daily  Resistance: 6240  Support: 6080)

In the past 2 weeks the index has been volatile.  We can see in the chart that for the past 2 weeks, the index has been intermittently, for every 2-3 days, having a black(red) candle stick.  If that pattern is reliable, the index is due for another black candle within the week.

Even if we do not base it from the above observed pattern, we can already visibly see a decline of confidence with the market, seeing the RSI, MACD and the Stochastics moving down.

In the weekly chart, a possible hanging man is spotted on the last trading day of last week.  A hanging man is a bearish reversal.  The indicators does not clearly display the same sentiment as all of them are moving upwards, but looking closer, we can see that the RSI is now very much overbought giving credence to the hanging man candle stick.

Right now the index is moving in a tight upward channel between 6080 to 6240.  The 10 day Moving average is also in the same range.  The 10-day moving average has not been breached lower since the start of the year, so we are expecting this to provide strong support.  The index may still move higher next week, but do watch out if the index moves lower than the 10day moving average.  Hold the buying for the moment, and if the index moves lower than the 10 day moving average, start to sell. 

PNX (Chart: Daily  Resistance: 10.40   Support: 9.60)

PNX caught my attention due to its unusual white candle accompanied by large volume.  This seems to be a breakout of a channel, but its target price is already reached.  Plus, the RSI is now overbought.

This does present a possible opportunity, but it is not yet recommendable to buy now given that the RSI is overbought and the target has been reached.  It is possible however that this transforms to a flag pattern, so do watch out for that possibility.

For those who are risk averse, you can buy this stock as long as it does not go below support of 9.60.

StockWatch (Jan 14-18, 2013) : PSEi, TA, NIKL

 PSEi (Chart: Daily    Resistance: 6100    Support: 5960/ 5860)

The index has once again created a new high last week.   We are generally still on an upward trend, but expect some downward to sideways movement by next week.

Next support is near 5960 which is the 10 day Moving Average.

A rising wedge seems to be forming in the index.  This is a bearish indicator, so keep an eye on other signals that may form in the coming weeks such as bearish divergence from the MACD.

 TA (Chart: Daily  Resistance: 1.50/1.55   Support: 1.40/1.30)

TA has a flag formation, with a target price of near 1.55.   As of current, the stock is now near its target price.  There may still be some push left in this stock and may still reach the 1.50 to 1.55 level by this week.   For those who have this stock, be prepared to get off the ride near 1.50.

NIKL (Chart: Daily  Resistance:  20.65   Support: 19.20)

NIKL has been continuously rising since last week and even showed bullishness by creating a gap up on the last trading day.

A very good thing for this stock is that there is a large amount of volume supporting the upward movement.   So expect the stock to rise further.

This stock is a buy, however,  looking at the RSI, the stock is now very much overbought, so expect downward to sideways movement.

For those who would like to take part of the action, I would recommend buying the dips as long as the stock can keep its price above 18.50.  Sell if it goes lower than 18.50

StockWatch (Dec 17-21, 2012): PSEi, PX

 PSEi (Chart: Daily    Resistance: 5866   Support: 5650/5511)

Looks like the index has now reached its highest level for the year when it started to fall last week.   The downward action of the index was expected because the market has long been overbought since the last week of November.

The index crossed lower than the 10 day Moving Average, the next support would be near 5650 which is an extension of the previous support since last Sept and then the next support level is at 5511 which is the 50 day Moving Average.

Expect a long sideways movement for the index on January once it finds support because it is unlikely that the index will continue with its recent bullish action, given that the MACD, RSI and Stochastics are all going or opening down.

PX (Chart: Daily   Resistance: 15.30    Support: 14.50/12.50)

Since the mine tailings disaster that PX got involved in, the stock was something to avoid.   But with the recent market activity for this stock,  it seems that there a new lease on this stock’s chances of making some big money.

Recent market activity showed a possible inverse head and shoulder formation. The left shoulder and head is already formed, and with the brewing downward action of the market, it might help with the right shoulder formation. But breakout might not happen until after 2 months, as the left shoulder and head took about 2 months each to be formed.

This is definitely something to watch out for, not just for the possible area formation, but also because of the recent spike in volume since the start of December.

If the inverse head and shoulder materializes, the possible upside target would be somewhere near 18.00.

StockWatch (Dec 3-7, 2012): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily     Resistance: 5650/5700     Support: 5540)

The index made a new all time high last week, however, it has now reached RSI of 75 and may start pulling down by this week.

I would suggest put a hold on the buying activity.  If index pulls down and the support provided by the 10 day MA near 5540 is breached, you need to start considering selling portions of your portfolio.

StockWatch (Nov 26-30, 2012): PSEi, JGS, GLO

 PSEi (Chart:  Daily Resistance: 5580   Support: 5480)

The index broke out from the ascending triangle earlier than expected.  I was still expecting it to consolidate for another week before breaking out.  But trading sentiment seems to be positive, probably due to the yearly window dressing by fund managers and buy backs by the companies.

Fundamentally the companies are still the same and company profit is not the main reason why the stock market index is breaking new highs.   While there is an advantage of profiting from the new bullish state of the market, do not however expect that this will last long.  Usually, by Jan or Feb, the stock market goes down again after the window dressing period is over.

When the RSI reaches 70, expect a pull back to happen with the index anytime by first week of December.

JGS (Chart: Daily   Resistance: 38.50    Support: 35.25)

Last week JGS had a sudden increase in volume and price creating a possible flag/pennant area pattern.

As long as the stock does not go below the 10 day moving average or around 36 price level, this stock is a good candidate to acquire considering the possible pennant or flag area pattern, which could take the stock near 45 giving a possible 10% return in a short span of time.

 GLO (Chart:  Daily    Resistance:  1150    Support: 1121)

There seems to be something brewing with GLO.   The stock has been consolidating for the past 5-6 months and it looks like in 2- 3 weeks time, something will happen to this stock.   Although I am not sure what will happen as it could either be positive of negative considering the symmetrical triangle the stock has been manifesting in its consolidation.
If a break out happens, we can see this stock moving towards 1400 level, otherwise, this could go as low as 900.

StockWatch (Nov 19-23, 2012): PSEi, CEB, ABS, ABSP

 PSEi (Chart: Daily  Resistance: 5490 Support: 5412)

Two weeks ago, an ascending triangle formation was seen from the index’s chart; however, it was still unsure whether it was an ascending triangle or just a sideways channel.    But as of trading action last week, we can somehow say that the ascending triangle formation is now more credible as the index stopped near the support line of the ascending triangle and rallied back on the last trading day.

I suggest keeping an eye on the ascending triangle formation, the breakout of the ascending triangle should happen in 2-3 weeks time.

 CEB (Chart: Daily Resistance: 62.26/67.50   Support: 59)

As I have previously posted, CEB is one stock that is good to accumulate for the long hold or for the cost averaging strategy.

CEB has been moving slow but steadily since October and the stock now seems to be forming a rounding bottom formation,  with resistance near 67.50. The target price for the rounding bottom formation is somewhere near 85.

It is still a long while before this stock breaks out, but I believe this is worth waiting for specially if you have been steadily accumulating this stock.

 ABS  (Chart: Daily)

ABSP (Chart: Daily  Resistance: 35.60/50   Support: 30)

ABS and ABSP  is rallying from its low of the year and there seems to be an active trading action with these stocks as it can be clearly seen that volume has accumulated since Aug.  

It might be that the current value of the stock deems it cheap for the actual worth of the company which is why trading volume has increased.  

But whatever reason it may be, the recent activity in these stocks show a possible breakout from a symmetrical triangle.  For ABSP it has a target price of near 45 while for ABS the target price is near 42.    However, there are lots of hurdles along the way for both stocks as traders who lost during its decline from May to Aug maybe selling while the stock moves back to their average price.

StockWatch (Nov 12-16, 2012): PSEi, FPH

 PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 5490 Support: 5410)

The index almost created a new high last week, unfortunately it was not supported much that it fell and closed lower.

The current area pattern being formed by the index hints on a possible ascending triangle. The resistance level of the ascending triangle is at the previous high of 5484.   However, anything can still happen and the current ascending triangle seen on the chart may turn out to be a sideways channel after all.

FPH (Chart: Daily Resistance:  94.50 Support: 80.20)

FPH had a rally for the last 2 weeks and it now looks like the upward momentum will decrease a bit as the stock is very much overbought, with RSI reaching 90.  The stock may also have been affected by a resistance line near 93; the resistance line was the previous high since 2007.   So for next week expect a sell down of the stock.

StockWatch (Nov 5-9, 2012): PSEi

PSEi ( Chart: Daily  Resistance: 5445/5460    Support: 5400/5353)

From the upward channel formed two weeks ago, the index has now broken the standing upward channel and has begun to move sideways.   The sideways movement seems to be forming a symmetrical triangle or, if the current resistance at 5445 is broken and the next resistance at 5460 holds, then it would be a horizontal channel.

So for next week, range trading strategy is still recommended.  Do watch out if the symmetrical triangle holds or if it materializes in to a horizontal channel and adjust your range/stops accordingly.

StockWatch (Oct 15-19, 2012): PSEi, PCOR

 PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 5480/5510     Support: 5350)

Looks like upward channel is further confirmed with last week’s trading action when the index went back inside the existing channel and found support near the support line of the channel.

With the white candle appearing on the last trading day, it is highly probable that the index would bounce from the support line and try to reach the resistance line of the channel near 5510.   The stochastic momentum index seems to support this idea as it positions itself for a cross above its %D moving average or the slow stochastic.  The RSI also supports this idea as it now starts to move upward again.

With the channel further confirmed, a range trading strategy is recommended.

 PCOR Weekly Chart

PCOR (Chart: Daily   Resistance: 11.10 Support: 10.80/10.48)

PCOR is one stock that seems to be turning around and is slowly starting a positive upward trend.

Looking at the weekly chart, the past two weeks were witnesses to the sudden increase in trading volume for this stock, the latest positive trading action since the start of the year.  The weekly MACD is also hinting on the possible positive upward movement for this stock as it nears the center line.

However, on the daily chart, the indicators are starting to point to a negative event as  all indicators are now moving downward.

So to sum up,  the general view for this stock is positive as shown by the weekly chart, but the daily chart, as of the moment is negative.  So for those whose objective is long term hold for this stock, the possible negative/downward movement next week would be good for entering this stock.   For those looking for a short term hold for this stock, you might need to sell for now and buy back near the support line at 10.48.

StockWatch (Oct 8-12, 2012): PSEi, GMA7

 PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 5480   Support: 5350)

The index reached a new all time high last week, and none of the negative divergences were seen in the different indicators.  This is a good sign for the index, however, there is only one stumbling block to the index’s ascent, and that is the existing resistance line connecting the lows of June and July 2012.

The index was able to move above that resistance line last week, but it was unable to maintain its foothold and closed below the resistance line.

The standing upward channel formation still holds and it might be that the index would be moving within that channel, between 5480 and 5350.

Except for the RSI, which is now on overbought level, all the other indicators does not show any negative sign for the index.  So I guess this might be the start of the index’s bullish movement, all that is left blocking is the resistance line.

GMA7 (Chart: Daily Resistance: 9.30/8.99 Support: 8.20/8.00)

The chart clearly shows the effects of the news release of the failed talks regarding the sale GMA.  

Technically, the stock broke down from a downward channel and its target price has been reached last Thursday.  This stock is definitely something to avoid, but for the fast draw traders out there, this is an opportunity to take advantage of the possible bounce that could happen for this stock, considering that the RSI is now at 13, far way below the oversold level of 30.

We could see the stock retracing back to near 8.99 before being stopped by the resistance line of the channel where it broke down from.

StockWatch (Oct 01-05, 2012): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily  Resistance: 5400/5420 Support: 5310)

The index is currently being supported by the 10 day MA, preventing it from moving further down.

What seems to be forming now is an upward channel instead of a rising wedge because of the sideways movement that the index generated last week.

We see that the index is now just a few points away from reaching the index’s all time high near 5403 and this would definitely be a serious resistance for the index.

Right now the R-squared (blue line) is starting to dip, which means the index is losing strength, but the Stochastic Momentum index, RSI and MACD are all climbing up, so be on the lookout for a possible divergence, where the index moves higher than the  recent high, but other indicators are unable to do the same.

StockWatch (Sep 24-28, 2012): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily      Resistance: 5370   Support: 5400)

The existing resistance line proved to be a strong hindrance to the upward movement of the index.  The index was only able to go as high as 5367 before buckling down to close at 5350.  

The bears have shown their strength through the resistance line, it is now a wait and see if the bulls will also be able to show their strength if the index is supported from falling further by either the 10 or 50 day MA.   If the bulls are able to do so, then we may be seeing our index trade in an upward biased trading range between the resistance line and 10 day MA.

If the bulls and bears battle it out, then we may have a possible upward channel or worst case a rising wedge, which is a bearish formation.

For now I would suggest to hold off any plans of buying until probably the index is able to move above the resistance line and the MACD is able to hold its position above the zero line.

It is not yet time to unload, but if the rising wedge does materialize, then start thinking of unloading on the way up.

StockWatch (Sep 17-21, 2012): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily      Resistance: 5360         Support: 5230)

The index was able to gain some positive movement on the last trading day last week, but stopped short just below the support-turned-resistance line.

All indicators are confirming the recent positive movement.  We now only have the support-turned-resistance line to conquer and it is a wait and see moment if the index has the strength to sustain the recent upward movement and cross above that resistance line.

If the index is able to move above the resistance line, this can be a signal to get in the market once again.

Do watch out for the RSI, as it nears the overbought level.  If the index has the strength, RSI @70 would not even matter, but if otherwise, that RSI level can be a resistance for the index.

StockWatch (Sep 10-14, 2012): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily      Resistance: 5230/5320            Support: 5170/5110)

It has been three weeks now and the index is still moving sideways.  The general sentiment of the market, expressed by the chart is one of indecision.

Looking at the R-squared and Line regression slope, we could see the green line(linear regression slope) just a few ticks away from its centerline (green horizontal line), which means we may have a positive trend, albeit for the short term, but the blue line (r-squared) is now near its lowest.  So we might be having a positive movement for the index, but something that might not be sustainable.

The MACD seems to be confirming the positive movement as it is about to cross above its signal line.  But the small opening or distance of the MACD to the signal line seems to also confirm that the cross over might not have the strength to sustain its position.

Do watch out for the following resistance line on its way up: 5230- 50 day MA and 5320 the support-turned-resistance line connecting the troughs of June to July.

StockWatch (Sep 3-7, 2012): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily      Resistance:5230/5280             Support: 5110/4880)

The index broke down from the symmetrical triangle 2 weeks ago, and its downward target level is near 4880 which is also the line of the 200 day moving average.  

So the question is, will the index plunge down to the 280 day moving average? 

Currently, thanks to the 100 day moving average, the index is still hanging on that line. We could see that even if the index moves lower than the 100 day moving average, it still manages to close near the 100 day MA.  So there are still a relatively stronger force in the market that is preventing the index from further breaking down.

Where the market will head to on the short term is something that could not be ascertained, as we have been moving sideways on the short term for the past 2 weeks. 

On the long term outlook, we have a strong downward trend given that the index broke down not just from the symmetrical triangle, but the 10 and 50 day moving average.  If the index breaks above the 10 day moving average (or the 50 day MA), this is not yet a sign of resumption of the upward movement because we still have the previous support turned resistance line blocking the index’s way.

On the top of the chart, you could see a blue and green line. The blue line represents the R-squared and the green line represents the linear regression slope.   The green line shows the trend, a positive (above zero green line) or negative trend (below zero). The blue line shows the strength of the current trend. 

The green line confirms that we are on a downward trend. The blue line tells the strength of the downward trend, and right now, it confirms that the downward trend is strong, which re-affirms the break down from the symmetrical triangle, 10 and 50 day MA. 

What is interesting though is that the green line seems to be arching its way upward, which means we are having some positive trend, the big BUT is that the blue line seems to be moving downward.  Putting those two lines together means, we may be having some positive upward movement, BUT, the movement might not be that strong. 

Do watch out for a bounce and retracing of the index back to the resistance line near 5230.   If the index is unable to move above the resistance line, it confirms what the green and blue line seems to be indicating.

StockWatch (Aug 13-17, 2012): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily  Resistance: 5330  Support: 5210)

For the past 2 weeks the index has been moving sideways, mostly flat. Connecting the peaks and lows for June and July, it seems that the index may be in a symmetrical triangle formation. 

As of the moment, we may be seeing further downward movement from the index as the stochastic momentum index line is now below the moving average.   MACD also seems to be at a point where it is about to move below its moving average line.

Do watch out if the index moves below 5210, which is near the support line connecting the lowest level in June and July.  A move below the support line would indicate the symmetrical triangle breaking downward. 

StockWatch (Aug 5-9, 2012): PX

PX (Chart: Daily   Resistance: 23.10   Support: 19.86)

Even before the tailings leak that happened last week for Philex, this stock is already on its way down after breaking down from a symmetrical triangle.   The recent news only sealed the fate of this stock as volume increased selling the stock down.

With the symmetrical triangle, the downward target price for this stock is near 18.   Expect another dead cat bounce by next week as the stock is already below the RSI oversold level.

StockWatch (Jul 23-27, 2012): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily      Resistance: 5252         Support: 5180/5070)

It seems that the recent 3 week bullish activity that propelled the index to new highs was unable to sustain its upward momentum and right now with the past 2 weeks of downward movement, the gains made on that 3 week bullishness is now 50% gone.

The index is now below the 10 day moving average, which previously stood as a support line and is now a resistance for the index.   As long as the index is below the 10 day moving average, I would like to suggest avoid buying and just maintain your position or lessen it.  

Do watch out for the 50 and 100 day moving average that is just a few points away from the current index level. If the index moves below that 2 moving average lines, be prepared for a long wait before the index is able to create a new high.