In Retrospect: URC

URC

URC is now underway in creating the right leg of the double bottom. There was a large increase in price last Thursday which might be due to the good company earnings report released also that day. It was able to surpass the resistance at 17 which is also the 65 day MA only to hit a snag at the 130 day MA which is at 17.25. As noticed the price increase last Thursday was not supported by good volume which made the price fall back to the support at 16, closing high at 16.50. As of current, the double bottom still has to prove itself by breaking the long term resistance at 18.50. But before it is able to do that, it must be able to break the moving averages. Possible target price of 23 for the double bottom formation.

StockWatch (Aug 6-10, 2007) : PSEi, URC

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3460 Support: 3320/3300)

PSEi was very bearish last week. Even if the US market was up twice by about 100pts each, the index was still down. The index even had false upward move where the market was about 50pts up, only to close lower near the end of the trading hours. The index breached the support line from March and further broke the 130 day SMA near 3400. As of writing, the US market sold down it previous gains going down 200pts last Friday. Expect further selling by Monday for those who would still want to get out of the falling market. Things to expect for next week: 1.) RSI is now very much oversold so this might spur some bargain hunting that would hopefully move the market up. 2.) Price has now retraced more than 50% of the upward move since Feb and it is now approaching the 61.8% retracement near 3300 which may provide support for our market.

URC ( Chart: Daily Resistance: 17.00 Support: 15.50)

URC is very much a candidate for a double bottom. In my previous analysis last May, URC showed signs of a bullish divergence. This bullish divergence was strong enough to break all moving averages but fell short of breaking the long term resistance line near 19. At current, URC is now very much oversold as RSI is way below 30 and somehow this oversold condition of URC may help complete the double bottom picture which may possibly be a sign of reversal from the stocks downward move. And again a further confirmation of a reversal would be if it is able to break the resistance at 18.50-19.00. Considering the volume last Friday, it seems that a lot were able to accumulate this stock at 15.50 to 15.75 which may translate to support area for this stock. If you are able to ride the risk you can buy at this level and hopefully ride this all the way to its resistance at 17.00 or to its complete reversal.


General Analysis
A lot of stocks have now reached oversold level with some even breaking the RSI 30. One of the more significant stock to watch is GEO. Last Friday’s trading had a large volume and RSI is also below 30, just like URC, this may suggest a support at 1.56

In Retrospect: LND, URC

LND

Target price of 1.34 is not yet achieved. Currently on a sideways movement and volume is still notably significant, which suggests that more are still coming in to trade the stock. But this stock still has a long way to reach the target price so there may be some sideways movement for the mean time. Recommendation: Hold

URC

URC broke out of a falling wedge without volume. Expect resistance at 16.50 and 17.00 level. Current price movement may already be a reversal in the works. But a break out from the downward trend is still to be confirmed when price breaks 19.50.

StockWatch (May 28-June 1, 2007) : LND, URC

LND( Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.92/0.96/1.12 Support: 0.84/0.80)

LND was previously noted to have exhibited signs of a head and shoulder formation, but as of current it seems that this formation has failed and it has turned into a symmetrical triangle formation which broke out last Friday. Target price is at 1.34. Recommendation: Buy.

URC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 16/16.75/17.25/17.75 Support: 15.50)

URC is currently showing possible signs of reversal. MACD and RSI seem to be forming a higher low, while the price formed a lower low, with MACD doing an upward crossover. As of current, the stock is still in a downward trend until further confirmed by a breakout from 19.50, which is a long term trend line resistance since May last year. Recommendation: Buy.

In Retrospect: EPHI, URC, ASIA,ATI

EPHI

Retraced back to 2.75. Possibility of a flag or pennant formation is now impossible as price may still move downwards for this week. There may be support at 2.60 level.

URC

I was wrong with the observation about the divergence. Based from what was taught in the advanced TA class, a shorter time period makes the divergence more credible. The divergence I pointed out was from Feb to May which somehow lessens the credibility of the divergence. When I looked at the shorter period in between Apr and May, there was no indication of divergence as the MACD moved together with the price both creating a lower low. Still looking for a sign of reversal, as of now support is at 15.75. A break lower than that could mean a continuation of the down trend.

ASIA

The support line needs to be redrawn as the price move sideways hitting the support line of the triangle. The symmetrical triangle is still intact. As of current the lowest price is at 12.00, but it could still move down to 11.50 for this week. At 11.50, this could be a good buy at that level assuming RSI still moves further near the 40 level and MACD does not cross below the zero line.

ATI
Price did moved further to 6.20, but the flag or pennant anticipated is already invalidated. After moving down to 6.20, price moved sideways invalidating the formation.

In Retrospect: EPHI, URC, ASIA,ATI

EPHI

Retraced back to 2.75. Possibility of a flag or pennant formation is now impossible as price may still move downwards for this week. There may be support at 2.60 level.

URC

I was wrong with the observation about the divergence. Based from what was taught in the advanced TA class, a shorter time period makes the divergence more credible. The divergence I pointed out was from Feb to May which somehow lessens the credibility of the divergence. When I looked at the shorter period in between Apr and May, there was no indication of divergence as the MACD moved together with the price both creating a lower low. Still looking for a sign of reversal, as of now support is at 15.75. A break lower than that could mean a continuation of the down trend.

ASIA

The support line needs to be redrawn as the price move sideways hitting the support line of the triangle. The symmetrical triangle is still intact. As of current the lowest price is at 12.00, but it could still move down to 11.50 for this week. At 11.50, this could be a good buy at that level assuming RSI still moves further near the 40 level and MACD does not cross below the zero line.

ATI
Price did moved further to 6.20, but the flag or pennant anticipated is already invalidated. After moving down to 6.20, price moved sideways invalidating the formation.

StockWatch (May 07- 11) : EPHI, URC, ASIA,ATI

EPHI (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.10 Support: 2.40)

Possible return move for this week. Watch out for retracement near to 2.60. This is also a possible candidate for a flag formation.

URC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 16.75 Support: 15.75)

No chart pattern for URC except for the RSI reaching oversold level. We need to watch also the divergence of the MACD against price movement. If a higher low has been recorded in the MACD and price still moves lower, this may be a good sign of a reversal from its current down trend.

ASIA (Chart: Daily Resistance: 13.50 Support: 12.25)

ASIA is forming a symmetrical triangle, with a very promising target of above 23. The chart is very promising as MACD is consolidating above the zero line which is an indicator or bullishness. Recommendation: Buy only on break out. If the price moves further downwards, it may still go to as low as 11.

ATI (Chart: Daily Resistance: 6.80 Support: 6.30/ 5.60)

ATI may be forming a pennant or flag formation. Watch out for further downward move towards 6.20 level.

In Retrospect : URC, MWC, TEL, PCOR

URC
URC broke the support at 18.50 and went to as low as 18 before closing at 18.25. Recommendation: Observe, price may either move sideways or down.

MWC
Broke out of a falling wedge, but it still needs to break out from the 65 day MA at 9.40. Target price is at 11. Recommendation: Buy, but be on the look out for the resistance at 9.40

TEL
TEL challenged the support at 2610 and went as low as 2570. Price may still go to as low as the next support at 2550. But price may bounce up from support within the week.
Recommendation: Buy near 2550, sell if it goes below support

PCOR
PCOR went to as high as 4.70 with very high volume. If this is a continuation of the break out last Jan 17, then the 4.70 target price has been reached.

StockWatch (Jan 29 – Feb 2, 2007): URC, MWC, TEL, PCOR

URC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 19/19.50 Support: 18.50)

URC could either be a descending triangle or a symmetrical triangle. If it is a symmetrical triangle, it needs to takeout the 3 MA’s before breaking out. Recommendation: Buy near support. If price goes below support, sell

MWC ( Chart: Daily Resistance: 9.00/9.50 Support: 8.80/8.60)

MWC seems to be forming a falling wedge. At current, it is still too early to tell as price may still bounce at 8.80 and may distort the falling wedge formation. Recommendation: Wait and observe, check if support will hold. If support holds and is accompanied by volume of around 10M and above, buy.


TEL ( Chart: Daily Resistance: 2720 Support: 2600/2550)

TEL gapped down with little volume, which might be a good indicator that there are still a lot of traders holding on to the stock. At this point price may still move down or sideways, probably testing support at 2600. What is promising about TEL is that is has now broken its sideways movement and the trading last week has had the price moving above the resistance of 2610 with price going above 2800. This may be a start of an upward channel. Recommendation: The stock is a candidate for range trading. Buy near support and sell at 2800 and beyond. If it goes below 2550, sell.

PCOR ( Chart Daily Resistance: 4.20/4.35 Support: 4.10)

PCOR broke out of a small channel last Jan 17 and was accompanied by 20M volume. I personally thought that the breakout would somehow be able to sustain the momentum and break the resistance that formed since August. But to my dismay, the price went down and went back inside the channel. But analyzing the volume on the downward movement, there was far less volume on the downward move, which is good sign that a lot are still holding on to the stock. Add the increase in volume in the recent trading, which could indicate that there is accumulation going on at 4.10-4.20 level. A break above 4.20 is imminent this week if the volume still picks up. Recommendation: Buy at 4.10-4.20. Sell if price goes below 4.10.