StockWatch (Sept 29-Oct 03, 2008): PSEi, JFC, FGEN, EDC, SPH

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2630/2685/2700/2780 Support: 2468/2342)

The island reversal that showed up in the PSEi chart delivered on its promise with the index moving higher. The index had a little bit of a wobbly start for last week and ended with a bang. The last 3 trading days we saw successive days with the index closing higher. It is worth noting that the index’s advance broke the 65 day MA resistance with high volume, which is a very good break. The next question is whether the index can sustain this bullishness this coming week. The 3 day advance that happened last week maybe showing us signs that we should be protecting our gains. The 3 white candles are similar to the three advancing soldiers’ formation in the Candlestick charting technique. The formation is most of the time pointing to a warning sign that recent upward movement may start to encounter problems on its further bid for its way up. A visible sign for this is that the third day of advance has a shorter white body and longer wicker than the first 2. It opened higher, tried to move higher in the middle of the trading, but just wasn’t strong enough to hold its position, it receded, was not able to recover and closed just higher than the opening price leaving a longer wicker. Again this is just a warning sign, so suggested action maybe to move your stops higher just incase the market went sour you can immediately trigger a sell or for the risk averse, selling some of your positions might be a better idea. Watch out for the upcoming resistances: 2630, which is the previous support line of the descending triangle; 2685, which is the 130 day MA; and 2700, the resistance line extending from May 2008. The RSI may also be posing a resistance for the index as it is near the 50 level.
Again as pointed before, this is still not the time to go long on your positions, the MACD is still below the zero line but is currently showing good signs of a possible cross above the signal line.

JFC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 57.50/59 Support: 44.50)

JFC, just like a dormant volcano, blew its top off sky high, consecutively moving higher for the 5 trading days last week. The bullish move broke the 260 day MA and also the resistance of the downward channel established since April 2007 all with large volume. Possible target price for this stock is at 57.50. I’m not sure what’s going on financially with this stock, but whatever it is, looks like investor confidence came in by the truckloads. Following the Elliot wave pattern, we may now be in the 3rd wave on a small scale with the first and second wave formed from July to Sept 2008. Looking on a larger scale, we may now also be on the 3rd wave with the first and second wave formed from 2004 to 2008. Looking at other indicators, we have the MACD still above the center line, so this means we can now go long on this stock, especially in the light of the recent breakout. Although for the RSI, the stock might be on the overbought level so this means a possible correction is near. This may give us a chance to jump in on the stock when it moves lower. Watchout for support at 44.50, as long as the stock does not go below this level on its correction phase, we are still safe. As the stock moves higher, the MA’s will further confirm this bullishness with crossovers.

FGEN (Chart: Daily Resistance: 25/27/31 Support: 15.25)

FGEN traded last week with large volume. There is no visible area pattern from which a breakout might have happened. The indication of a large volume makes this stock viable for a short term hold. A good signal to start buying would be if the MACD crossed above the signal line. Watchout for the following resistance: 25, which is the 65 day MA; 27 which is the resistance line formed from April 2008; 31 which is the previous high.

EDC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 4.20/4.50/4.70 Support: 2.95)

EDC had a very good bullish rally last week accompanied with large volume. A gap was formed also with good volume. Watch out for further gaps happening in this stock. This stock is good to hold for the short term only. We have the MACD crossing over the signal line, but still below the center line indicating a short term bullishness. The stock currently stopped short of breaking the resistance at 4.20 which is the resistance line formed from Jan 2008. Also watch out for other resistance levels at 4.50 which is the 65 day MA and 4.70 which is the resistance line formed from October 2007. If resistance line from Oct 2007 is broken, there is a possible of stock reaching target price of 6.50.

SPH (Chart: Daily Resistance: 5.40 Support: 4.40)

SPH closed successively higher for the past 2 weeks, breaking a possible sideways channel formation. Target price for this channel is at 5.40. Current level is at 5.20 and is not a good entry level, especially looking at the RSI which is very much overbought. The MACD on the other hand, is indicating a long term hold, so if you are to get in on this stock for the long term hold, wait for the correction before buying.

In Retrospect: JFC

JFC

The breakout from the small downward channel for JFC was a bull trap. The price moved lower than the support to as low as 46.50. It is currently approaching another support level at 46. If support at 46 holds, then we might be able to see a pull back towards 48-50. The possible H&S and ascending triangle formation is still intact, so this stock still has hope, but not for now, we’ll just have to wait till the 52.50 resistance is broken.

StockWatch (Feb 18-22, 2008): PSEi, JFC

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3250/3300 Support: 3170)

The index’s chart still doesn’t look good for now. It’s now somewhat dangerously forming a descending triangle with support at 3170. If the index is still unable to move above 3300 resistance, this gives the impending descending triangle formation more credibility. Looking at movement of most stocks, some are still in consolidation while some are still on its downward move. A few have been moving upward and against the prevailing bearish sentiment, so it is more probable that the index might have a hard time moving past the 3300 resistance level. So for now, strategy is still keeping short positions or just staying on the sidelines to be safe. If the descending triangle does materialize, its probable TP is around 3000.

JFC(Chart: Weekly)

JFC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 52.50/53.50 Support: 51/49.50)

JFC had a breakout from a downward channel last week. Considering the small channel formed, the TP is around 56, if the larger downward channel is considered, the TP is around 60. The volume on the break out is very large that comparing the weekly volume, it has surpassed the average weekly volume of around 3-5M shares traded. Now with that large volume, it is suggesting that momentum is starting to pickup with this stock. Looking at the MACD, on the daily chart, we have the MACD moving above the zero line and above the signal line, looking also at the weekly chart we can see that the MACD is just about to move above the signal line, both suggesting a very positive outlook for this stock. As of current 52.50 is a resistance that needs to be taken out, then afterwards 53.50. If the stock surpasses the 53.50, it is now out of the general downward move since April of 2007. Possible area patterns forming are ascending triangle and a head and shoulder formation, both having a resistance at 52.50 and possible TP of above 60. It is possible that the price action may re-test the resistance-turned-support line at around 49.50-50.00. For those who can absorb the risk, you buy near support at 50, cutloss it if goes to 49. Or for those who are risk averse, buy on break of the 52.50 resistance.

In Retrospect: SMC, JFC

SMC

SMC had tough time last week. The bears were successful last week of preventing the price from moving further as trading was always closing lower than the opening price. During the bearish trading last week, it was somehow able to form a support at 50. However, a resistance was also formed at 51.50. So we could say that it is currently consolidating and moving side ways. Checking on the indicators, the MACD has crossed above the signal line, which is bullish. The RSI on the other hand still looks good as it is still below the centerline of 50, which means the recent bearish week is not yet the end for this stock and that it is just taking a breather from the recent upward move.

JFC

JFC had a very bullish start last week with the stock opening higher than its previous week’s close, reaching 52 before closing at 51.50. The rest of the week was characterized by bearish action topping with a sign of indecision on the last day as price opened and closed on the same level. The stock may further consolidate next week, as it is currently in between the 65 and 130 day MA. Sideways consolidation is actually good for the stock at this point as a breather from the recent upward move. Still watch out for the possible inverse head and shoulder formation with resistance at 54.

StockWatch (Dec 03-07, 2007): PSEi, SMC, JFC

PSEi (Chart :Daily Resistance: 3620/3670/3730 Support: 3500)

The index had a very bullish action last week and recovered 30% of the recent downward move. There was an unusually large volume traded last Tuesday and we can probably consider this as a support. One good thing that can be observed in the chart is that the gap up that happened on the first trading day last week created an island reversal, now how high can the index go is still anybody’s guess. Last week also, the incident at the Manila Peninsula did not have much of a negative effect on the index, but it somehow has shown a little bit of indecision on where it will move next as it closed just below the opening level creating a doji. The doji that formed I think definitely reflected the current situation for the index. We have the recently formed island reversal and a 20% recovery from the downward move which are bullish actions, however, due to last Thursday’s incident at Makati, there definitely occurred some hesitations and bearish reactions that prevented the index from closing higher, thus forming a doji. This coming Monday’s trading would be a critical indication of how the market will turnout for the rest of the week. There might be some selling happening when the index opens and that might be associated with the uncertainty and cautious trading. But observe the index closely, if the sentiment is still bullish, the index can immediately pull up from the selling pressure, or probably immediately open higher. Now looking at the DJIA last week, it formed a stalled candle stick pattern (3 successive white candle with the first 2 candle sticks being long and the 3rd a small bodied candle stick) and last Friday's trading had a higher close, but it formed a black candle with large volume, so there might be some bearish sentiment that could affect our local market for the coming week. Watch out for support at 3500, breaking this level might be an indication of a return to downward move. An MACD cross above the signal line is also poised to happen, if it does, then it is a bullish confirmation of the recent upward move that we are experiencing.

Erratum: I earlier posted a wrong info on the DJIA having gained 300pts, it actually gained only around 60 pts last Friday, forming a black candle.

SMC Daily Chart

SMC Weekly Chart

SMC (Resistance: 51.50/54/56.50 Support: 46.50/42.50)

SMC now has an island reversal formed with an exceptionally large volume as shown in the daily chart. Looking at the weekly chart we can see that it fell short of being a bullish engulfing formation, however, the volume says a lot about the bullishness of this stock as it had an exceptionally large volume for last week. On the daily chart we can also see the bullishness as the stock was sold down with low volume, but was bought up the next day with more than double volume when it was sold down. Another bullish indicator is the MACD which is now poised to cross above the signal line. There is no price target for this since we do not have an area pattern formed. The only guide we have for selling are the different resistance levels and also our risk-to-reward ratio. The upcoming resistance for this stock are a.) 51.50, the highest the stock went last week, b.) 54 which is a long standing support that turned resistance when the stock broke down last November, and c.) 56.50, the 38.2% Fib retracement. Watchout for the 54-56.50 levels, those that were able to buy at 45 and below may start cashing in on the stock at those levels. Average volume for this stock is around 300T shares traded, a sell down near or above the average volume may indicate that some have started cashing in on the stock. If the stock was able to go past the 54-56.50 levels with low volume on sell downs, then there is a higher chance that the stock may reach the 65 level which is the 61.8% Fib retracement.

JFC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 51/55 Support: 48.50/45)

JFC showed a bullish movement last Thursday when it closed the gap formed last Nov 20 accompanied with a large volume of about 2.9M shares. The MACD has currently crossed above the signal line indicating a buy. The only hesitation that I have with the stock is that it formed a large upper shadow, which indicated that there was not enough bullish sentiment that could hold the stock at those price levels. However even though it was not able to hold price at those levels, it was able to close the gap formed last Nov 20 which can also be interpreted as a bullish move. We need to watch the succeeding trading days though. Watch out for signs of diminishing bullishness such as high volume on selling days and being unable to close above the 260 day MA. Also watch out for the inverse head and shoulder formation and possible resistance at 54-55 levels.

In Retrospect: LCB, APXB, PEP, JFC

LCB

LCB has proven its bullishness. It was able to move past 0.50 resistance level and continued up to as high as 0.60. MACD also followed as well with the movement of the price. This stock is now over bought and may move down to sideways for the coming week. If we consider the downward channel where it broke out from, the target price is near 0.65. It is possible that a flag/pennant may form for the coming week.

APXB

APXB was not able to move up at par with LCB’s bullishness. Currently the MACD is in the position of forming a bearish divergence, but this is still not final. Any further downward move will definitely seal the bearish divergence. However, looking at the recent trading days, the upward move by this stock has volume, though it may not be as large as the breakout volume, but this is definitely a bullish sign. So I’m more inclined to see the MACD forming a higher high. Considering the downward channel it brokeout from, the target price of the stock is near 8.50.

PEP

PEP went as low as 0.78 and made a large bounce reaching the target price of 1.10 within one day. Watchout for a flag to form. There may still be some play left for this stock considering that there was only 1 day where there was a sell down. But this is left to be proven by next week. If the stock is bought up with volume of around above 10M, there is still momentum for this stock. If the stock is sold down below 0.90 with high volume, then this means the play is over.

JFC

JFC went to as low as 44.50 and went to as high as 50. As of current there is strong resistance at 50. The downward trend for this stock is still intact. Movement for this week may either be up to sideward. There is still resistance at 55. Watch out for the possible formation and break out of an inverted H&S.

StockWatch (Nov 12-16, 2007): PSEi, LCB, APXB, PEP, JFC

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3800 Support: 3650/3620/3520)

The index suffered another plunge last Thursday following after the Dow 200 points plunge. As of last Friday Dow took yet another 200 pts plunge after other financial institutions have also started to announce their losses from the Subprime crisis. This recent plunge will definitely be felt this week in our index. As of current we are seeing a bearish divergence forming with the RSI, however, this is still not confirmed as the trough has not yet formed. The symmetrical triangle I have noted before is still intact after the plunge last Thursday and I expect that this will be broken come Monday. Next support levels are 3650 (23.6% Fib retracement), 3620 (previous low) and 3520 (previous low of the gap up last Sept and at the same time, the 38.2% fib retracement). Aside from the above mentioned support levels, another thing to watch out is the MACD crossing below the center line. If this happens, then we may see further downward movement.

LCB(Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.50 Support: 0.42)

LC and LCB surprisingly gapped up with a big upward spread and were accompanied by large volume. This gap up has broken LC/LCB’s long standing downward trend. However, there is something that is not so good on this breakout, for LCB, the wicker of the candle for the breakout day was larger than the body, while for LC, the price opened and closed on the same level. This means there is still strong resistance along the way up. What may probably be good to know is that even if there is strong resistance along the way, there was a large volume on the breakout which may translate to a very strong support level. For LCB, there is still an upcoming resistance at 0.50 which is the previous high from 2005. A thing to watch out though is the MACD, this stock has now formed a higher high, and the MACD needs to follow. If this does not happen, then this is a warning sign for an upcoming bearish action.

APXB (Chart: Daily Resistance: 7 Support: 6.30)

APX/APXB has a similar situation with LC/LCB. The recent breakout from the longstanding resistance line was accompanied with volume. Price formed a higher high and MACD needs to follow. If MACD is not able to form a higher high, then this might be a bearish indicator. For both APX/APXB and LC/LCB, considering the plunge in Dow last Friday, it is highly likely that these stocks would be sold down and if it does, a bearish divergence may form.

PEP (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.94 /0.98 Support: 0.75/0.72)

This one I think was pointed out in the Absolute Trader’s forum by Yeahbah. PEP brokeout from the inverted head and shoulder formation with a large volume and spread. Target is around 1.10. This is currently doing a return move to re-test the resistance turned support at 0.75. It’s a wait-and-see what will happen by next week considering the recent events in the US market. If price bounces from support, this would be a good time to buy.

JFC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 51 Support: 47)

JFC is a candidate for range trading. Price level at 47 is a support level and may expect a bounce from that level as RSI below 30 is very much oversold right now. Entry at 47, sell at 50, cutloss at 46.50.

In Retrospect: JFC

JFC

The stock was able to breach the 2 moving averages acting as resistance. This stock is now near the resistance line at 54.50. Watch out for that level as that may be the price level where range traders starts to unload their positions. At this point, it is still too early for a breakout, but if it does, it is breaking out from the triangle with a target of 73. The breakout volume should have at least 2.5M shares traded for a valid breakout. Otherwise, if price continues to move up without sufficient volume, this means we need to re-draw our triangle. Next possible resistance after breakout from the resistance line is at 57. Judging from the RSI, a move towards the price of 57 may be possible as RSI is still halfway from being overbought.

StockWatch (August 27-31, 2007) PSEi, JFC

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3250 Support: 3170)

The index is currently testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 3230. It’s still a wait-and-see if the resistance will be broken. However I’m more inclined to call that the resistance may be a problem for the mean time. This is due to the volume which is just average in the index’s upward move. Looks like most are still out of the market until further confirmation that the stock market scare is over or have died down. A positive note on the index is that the MACD has now crossed above the signal line. Hopefully this might attract more volume in the market. As of current we’re still not yet out of the woods until we have gone past the Moving averages and have created a new high. Looking further at the index, if I were to follow the downward movement gaps, it seems to be confirming a reversal. We have the breakaway gap, the runaway gap, and the exhaustion gap (marked as 1-3 in the image). The trough formed in the index was a confirmation of the runaway gap, that indicates a halfway point for the movement and the exhaustion gap which indicates that the bottom is nearing. Analysing the gap on the current upward move, we have the breakaway gap and runaway gap (marked as 4-5). If the run away gap is to be considered as a halfway point this means the top of the current upward move will be near 3460 (marked as 6 in the image), at which level is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Considering the gaps on the upward move, this could probably indicate that for the coming weeks or months, we will be trading between 2870 and 3460.

JFC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 53 Support: 49)

JFC seems to be forming a symmetrical triangle with TP near 75. At this point, it is still too early for a breakout to happen. Price action may probably trade the range of 44-53 for the mean time. Also if my analysis is correct, there seems to be an inverted head and shoulders formation. Left shoulder is already formed and head is on its way to be formed, however we still have to wait for the right shoulder. Judging from the time span the left shoulder has formed, which is around 3 months, the completion of the head formation may be on September and the right shoulder and breakout by November or December. Watchout for the resistance line, this will be tested by the right side of the neckline formation of the H&S. Getting in at this level would be risky for range trading. A good level for range trading is at 45 or below. Sell at 53, cut loss at 43.50.

In Retrospect: PAX, JFC, DGTL

PAX

PAX moved with the market last week, going to as high as 14. A short upward move and sideways movement characterized its price action. However, we could see that even if there had been an upward move for this stock, it has consistently closed lower than the opening price. This means the bulls are still overpowered by the bears trying to sell the stock. Also the volume is still lethargic, which means there aren’t enough buyers. If this goes up and is able to close the gaps without a significant increase in volume, then this means the upward move was just superficial. Watch out for price levels 14.25 the lower end of the gap, 15.25 higher end of the gap, 16.25 and 19.00 the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement price levels. One good thing to note for this stock is that the MACD is positioned to cross above the signal line. It’s a wait-and-see if this cross above the signal line would attract more volume. Still be on the look out for the formation of an island reversal pattern.


JFC

The trough that we are waiting is now formed and this means that our positive divergence is confirmed. This stock went to as high as 53 with sufficient volume. However, the 2 MA’s are currently blocking its way and has proven to be strong resistance. Price may move sideways to down for this week. It may go to as low as 49 which is its previous low or beyond.

DGTL
The positive divergence is also confirmed for DGTL as the trough has formed. However, the upward movement of the stock was not accompanied by volume, which means its sideways movement for this stock for now until it’s able to get more volume. Any further upward move without sufficient volume may not be good enough to break out from the downward channel that it is currently in.

StockWatch (Aug 20-24, 2007): PSEi, PAX, JFC, DGTL

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2940/3100/3220 Support: 2740/2440)

The index went thru the 260day MA, even breaking the long term support line connecting the peaks from 2002 and 2006. Next support level is at around 2740, the long term support line connecting the peaks of 2002 and 2005 and afterwards at 2440, the support line connecting the troughs of 2003 and 2006. With last Friday’s Fed’s intervention in the US market by cutting the discount rates, hopefully our local market would also react positively with that event. There is still no sign of reversal, so it might be possible that upward moves maybe short lived due to heavy selling from those who were stuck in the 4 weeks straight selling. Resistance at 2940/3100/3220 which are previous highs.

PAX( Chart: Daily Resistance: 14.25/15/16/17.50 Support: 10/10.75/12)

On a bearish market, RSI goes way below the oversold level of 30. This somehow got my curiosity to find the stock that has the lowest RSI to date which eventually led me to PAX. The RSI of this stock is currently at 6.69, the lowest of all stocks actively traded. On further observation of the price movement, this stock also has a couple of other stories to tell. The prominent things I’ve noticed on this stock are the gaps. If my analysis is correct, the price movement may have formed a break away gap, runaway gap and an exhaustion gap. The exhaustion gap coupled with the RSI is somehow telling us that selling momentum for this stock maybe near its end. What may happen in the week to come is the probable formation of an island reversal or probably a short upward move then a sideways movement. Expect heavy resistance at those levels where the gaps were made. This can be a candidate for range trading. If you could get this stock at 12, you can sell at 14 for a 15% net profit. Cutloss is at 11.50. Word of caution, even though there are signs telling us of possible end of the selling momentum, there is still a possibility that price may further move down. Next support levels are 10/10.75. The price 10.75 is the support line connecting the troughs of 2003 and 2005. While 10 is a logical support and previous low.

JFC ( Chart: Daily Resistance: 50/51/54 Support: 44/42.50/39)

JFC may be forming positive divergence. Both the RSI and MACD are registering higher lows, while the price is registering lower lows. The positive divergence is not yet confirmed as price still has to form the trough. At this point, the price may further register lower low and may drag both the RSI and MACD with it thereby invalidating the positive divergence. However, even if the positive divergence is confirmed it may take a while before the stock starts to move the opposite direction.

DGTL (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.20/1.40 Support: 1.10/1.02/0.88)

DGTL is also showing signs of positive divergence. Both RSI and MACD are registering higher low while price is registering lower low. The divergence is still not confirmed as the trough still has to be formed and price may still move further down dragging the RSI and MACD and invalidating the positive divergence. Price at 1.10 is a support level, this is the support line connecting the troughs from 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006. It’s a wait and see this week if that support line will hold.

In Retrospect: PCP, NI, JFC, GEO

PCP

PCP went to as high as 0.75 before moving down to as low as 0.53. Price movement for this week may either be side to down. Next support is 52/49/45

NI

NI went only as high as 27 and as low as 23. I was wrong on this one, neither a break out nor an upward move happened. Price continued to move downwards. I guess I was wrong at anticipating an MACD cross above the signal line to propel an upward move, which never happened.

JFC

JFC went to as low as 53 for the week. I was wrong again on the upward move, as price went down. Triangle is still intact so this is still a stock to watch.

GEO

Move down last week and somehow invalidated the ascending triangle. Looks like further downward move for this week.

StockWatch (July 16-20) : PCP, NI, JFC, GEO, PEP, WIN

PCP (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.61 Support: 0.45)

PCP gapped up and brokeout from an upward biased channel (probably a weird looking symmetrical triangle) doubling the price in just 1 week. Target price for this pattern is 0.65. But looking at a larger picture below (PCP-Weekly chart), we can see that PCP has formed a rounding bottom with a target price of 1.14. But this rounding bottom may still have a possibility of moving sideways forming a cup and handle. PCP is definitely a buy.

PCP-Weekly Chart

NI (Chart: Daily Resistance: 30/28.50 Support: 22.50/19.75)

NI has formed a symmetrical triangle with a possible MACD cross above signal line. Price may still move higher this week. The current symmetrical has a target price of 44. But this symmetrical triangle may become an ascending triangle if the previous high of 30 will become a strong resistance. Current price of 26 is a buy considering a resistance of 30. It’s a wait-and-see if this week would be a breakout or just an ordinary continuation of the upward move probably up to resistance of 30.

JFC( Chart: Daily Resistance: 57/61 Support: 54/53)

JFC’s symmetrical triangle is still intact (see StockWatch and In Retrospect for Jul2-6). The price went to as low as 54. For the coming week, price movement is side to upward. Target price for the symmetrical triangle is 68.50. At current price of 54, this is considered a buy.

GEO (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.05 Support: 2.70/2.50)

GEO has shown signs of divergence of the RSI and MACD against price. MACD and RSI has formed a lower low while price has formed a higher low. As of current, there is still room for further upward move. The pattern looks like a small ascending triangle, but the volume last July 5 seems to break the diminishing volume characteristic of an ascending triangle. If the ascending triangle is really valid and breaks out, target price will be at 3.70. With consideration of the divergence, it might be good to lighten your position at that level and buy back later.


PEP might move towards 0.98 possibly forming either a symmetrical or ascending triangle with possible MACD crossover

WIN might move toward 0.75 possibly forming either a symmetrical or ascending triangle, with possible MACD crossover

In Retrospect: ASIA, JFC, SMC

ASIA

ASIA went to as low as 11.50 one of its support level. The symmetrical triangle support line needs to be redrawn a little bit. In my opinion, a strong support level at 11.75 was established last week. Movement for this week could be sideways or up. Price action is very near the apex, so this is still a stock to watch. Buy only on break out.

JFC

Good thing with JFC is that the support line was very much respected on the trading days last week. It went up to as high as the resistance level of 56. MACD has crossed over the signal line which is very good. Another good indicator is a divergence of MACD and price last week. Any of these things could happen next week: a) Sell down to the 65 day MA support of around 54 possibly because of those who would want to cash in already. b.) RSI to move down near 50, or c.) A break out! A satisfactory breakout volume should be above 2M shares. Target price is 67.

SMC

Nothing significant happened, except that the stock moved sideways, forming an ascending triangle. However, the volume does not seem to confirm the formation. Though the rounding bottom is still intact. Still a stock to watch.

StockWatch (July 2-6) : ASIA, JFC, SMC

ASIA( Chart: Daily Resistance: 13.00/13.50 Support: 11.75/11.50)

ASIA is forming a symmetrical triangle with a target price of 23. Currently, price is near support line from Feb, which is a good buy level. Symmetrical triangle is near the apex, so breakout (or down) should happen anytime soon. Otherwise we have to redraw our support and resistance line. Aside from the symmetrical triangle, on a bigger picture, the charts is showing signs of a rounding bottom or cup and handle formation, however this formation is not yet ripe for the picking.

JFC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 56 Support: 52.50/ 49.50)

JFC is forming a symmetrical triangle with target price of 67. Price is currently near the support line from May, so this is currently a good buy level.

SMC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 76.50/80 Support: 72)

SMC is forming a small rounding bottom with resistance at 80. As of now anything could still happen, the rounding bottom formation might be replaced with a symmetrical triangle or ascending triangle depending on the outcome of the trading next week. Buy only on breakout.

In Retrospect : JFC, FLI, AT, APX/APXB

JFC
This stock broke the resistance at 42.50 and bounced off 44 level. The trading last Friday saw a couple of holders cashing in on the upside which brought the price down to 43, near resistance. The broken resistance was not accompanied by a valid volume to consider a valid break of the rectangle or sideways pattern. But this stock still has a lot of potential as it would still try to retest the 44 resistance (previous high since last Nov 2005) and hopefully break it. The MACD shows a positive outlook for this stock, but RSI shows a near overbought sign. The price may still fluctuate between 44-42.50. Recommendation: Hold if you already have this stock. If you plan to acquire this stock, try to get this near support of 42-43.

FLI
FLI reached a high of 2.16 before plummeting to a low of 1.64. The price went below the 65 day MA and currently bounced off the Nov-Dec support line. Price may now trade sideways between 1.6-1.8 with a strong support at 1.64. Recommendation: Range trading this stock is a possibility. Buy below 1.70 and sell above 1.80. But be aware that a strong resistance may form near 1.80-1.90 as a lot may still hold the stock or sell at this price level.

AT
AT did not pullback to 9.50 but instead flew higher to 10.50 with substantial volume but pulled back down to 9.30. It currently has established a resistance at 10. Price may move between 9-10 level. Recommendation. Avoid if it moves lower than 9.

APX/APXB
The expected bounce did not happen and the price went further down

StockWatch (Dec 18-22) JFC, FLI, AT, APX/APXB

JFC ( Chart: Daily Resistance: 41/42.50 Support: 39)

JFC was initially forming an ascending triangle last November, but this was invalidated when the price gapped down. But the price later bounced with good volume. Considering that the bounce was accompanied by good volume, lots of traders are holding this stock at 39.50-41.50 level, which now provides a good level of support. The downward move during the last 3 days of trading were not significant compared to the volume on the upward move from the 39.50 level. For the coming week, there is a big possibility that price would move sideward or down (to 39.50) for a short time and then would push up to resistance level of 41-42.50. Recommendation: Range Trade. Buy if incase the price moves down near the support level (39-40) and volume is not substantial (below 600T trades). Sell if incase support level at 39 is breached with substantial volume (1M trades) or if resistance level of 42 is reached without substantial volume.



FLI ( Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.90 Support: 1.82/ 1.74)

FLIis has reached 1.90 level, the previous high last May bull run. It re-tested the previous high but was unable to break the resistance. For the coming week, FLI may move sidewards to down before trying to re-test the resistance at 1.90. If resistance is broken, there is a possibility that price may reach beyond 2.0 level. Recommendation: Wait, price may still go down below the support at 1.82. Any move below 1.82 support with less volume is a buy. Sell at 1.90 if move upward is not supported with volume. If move upward is supported with good volume, hold till it reaches 2.0 or beyond, then sell.


AT ( Chart: Daily Resistance: 9.80/10 Support: 8.80)

Watch out for AT, probably forming a flag/pennant. Recommendation: Wait for the pullback probably near 9.50 level. Pullback should have diminishing volume.


APX ( Chart:Daily Resistance: 6.20 Support: 6.0)

APX and APXB is poised for a bounce from the support. Recommendation: Buy at 6-6.50 level. Observe the volume, APX exhibited unusual volume last Friday, but the same did not happen for APXB, but nonetheless, do observe if the bounce is accompanied by good volume (greater than 4M trades)

In Retrospect: MEG, JFC, VUL, WPI

Checking on the previous week’s analysis

MEG

The price went down as low as 1.96 and rallied up again for two days. The descending triangle that is in its early formation is invalidated by the increase in volume during the Nov 28 downward movement. This downward movement further established a new support. Currently MEG is still a stock to avoid as the MACD is still in a bearish stance. If the price at 2.30 is not broken and instead a new lower peak is formed, it is a further confirmation of the bearish move.

JFC

The Nov 28 downward movement invalidated the ascending triangle being formed. But this downward movement established a support level at 39. Interestingly, the upward movement on the last day of trading during last week was accompanied by high volume, which increases the holders at 39-40 level, providing a strong support in those levels. Though MACD is still bearish, I believe that because of the increase in volume prices may start to move up, possibly trying to re-test the resistance at 42.

VUL

The pole formed for two successive trading days was followed by a flag formation, but was unsuccessful at breaking the resistance. Further correction may still follow as stock is already overbought.

WPI

The ascending triangle formation failed and broke the support. The MACD is now in a bearish stance.

StockWatch (Nov 27-30, 2006): MEG, JFC, VUL, WPI

MEG( Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.2 Support: 1.96)

As previously noted in the Stock Watch (Nov 13-17) post, the stock was in a bearish move which was further confirmed during the past week. The bounce up was not able to cover the gap created by the downward movement and it further slid down. Currently the stock is still bearish as MACD is still on a downward movement. The movement during the 2 trading days covered the gap up created by the bounce. The stock is in the position of forming a descending triangle. If it does reach the support of 1.96, this could be a further confirmation of the descending triangle

JFC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 42.50 Support 40.50)

JFC is forming a small ascending triangle with resistance at 42.50. If resistance is broken, we could see a move towards 46. But before reaching 46, it needs to break the previous high of 44. If the ascending triangle is broken successfully, we may see price to go beyond 44. If not, then 44 may be a strong resistance

VUL( Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.98 Support: 0.83)

VUL is a possible candidate for a Pennant/Flag formation. The pole is already establish, just waiting for the flag/penant

WPI (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.68 Support: 0.59)

WPI is a possible ascending triangle with resistance at 0.68. But a volume of above 18M is needed for a good break out