StockWatch (Feb 22-26, 2010): PSEi, TUNA

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3022 Support: 2940/2787)

The index continued its upward movement last week only to be stopped by the 65 day MA. Expect next week for the index to continue its downward movement. The downward movement on the last 2 days of trading last week was not accompanied by large value turnover relative to that of Wed’s trading, if the value turnover is still low on the succeeding trading days, there is a possibility that this downward movement would be short lived.

Upcoming support is at 2940, which is the 130 day MA. The crossing below the 130 day MA would be an important event to watch out. If the value turnovers of the downward movement on the succeeding days are low, the 130 day MA level could provide support for the index and possibly making it move sideways, moving in between the 65 and 130 day MA. As of current, the MACD is still below the center line, which still tells us that we shouldn’t be going long on the market for now.



TUNA (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.06/2.16/2.26 Support: 1.86/1.60)

At the time when stocks are moving downward TUNA was pushing upward. Trading last Friday had a very large volume, but the stock seems to have been affected by the general downward sentiment of the market because of the large wicker of the candle which suggests that it was able to move higher but was unable to sustain the level. However, even if it was unable to sustain that level, it was somehow able to stay above the opening price which gave the stock a white candle.

The area pattern last week was a pennant formation and the trading last Friday was the breakout of this pattern. Target price for the area pattern is around 2.25, but there are a couple of resistances along its way up. The first resistance is at 2.06 which is the previous high reached last Friday. Next resistance is 2.16, which is the next previous high from Dec 2009.

Having come from the RSI low of 15 rising immediately to near 70 is definitely a bullish indication. Breaching the 70 level would be extremely bullish. For those who are not yet in this stock and would like to get a piece of action, I would advise caution in buying because the stock is already toppish. I have apprehensions of the stock breaking the 70 level because it started from the low of 15 and that alone is a very long walk. Do watchout for the volume of trading next week. If volume increases on Monday to more than 18M volume, with a white candle formation, then we are probably seeing an extremely bullish stock in play here and breaking 70 level would be a possibility. But if volume by Monday is lower than 18M, then start looking out for weakness on the resistance levels.

StockWatch (Mar 16-20, 2009): PSEi, TUNA, EDC, FGEN

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1940 Support: 1800)

Just as I was jubilant that market had already reacted positively 2 weeks ago, the market action last week doused my joy and we’re now back below the 65 day MA. We’re still in the long standing sideways movement of the market and for the following week expect that this sideways to downward movement will continue.

Most are waiting for the market capitulation, and in my opinion, the chart is giving us mixed signs on this. As can be seen in the chart, the market has been on a sideways movement since October of last year, and eversince the low of October 2008, the market has not gone back to that low, which suggests that there is very strong support. With that strong support, there is lesser probability of a market capitulation. However, we’ve been on a sideways movement for nearly 5 months and we are not sure up until when the support will last to prevent market capitulation. This long standing sideways movement is probably contributing to a possible market capitulation with players slowly loosing interest with the sideways movement of the market. We are also seeing shorter rallies as observed from the chart, which might also be contributing to a possible market capitualtion. So as you can see, the current market activity is not pointing to a market capitulation, but the current activity is probably contributing to that possibility. But ofcourse who knows? We’ll probably only know we’re in market capitulation if we realize that we ourselves are also part of selling panic.

TUNA (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.30 Support: 1.26)

TUNA moved more than what I was expecting. I was just expecting for TUNA to just move and stop just above the resistance line, but it went further to a high of 1.40. The amazing thing was that the move towards 1.40 was accompanied with volume. This is definitely a breakout of falling wedge, but I can’t really say if this is the reversal of the long standing downward trend of the stock or a continuation of the recent shorter upward trend from Jul of 2008. Target price for the falling wedge pattern is at 1.70. As of current,there is a possibility that this stock is also forming a pennant formation with a target price of 1.55. If you plan on getting this stock, buy near support at 1.26. Observe the volume on breakout, there has to be a large volume on the pennant pattern breakout. If you buy at 1.30, cutloss when the stock moves below 1.30. Sell for profit near 1.50. Watch out for the moving averages at around 1.45. If the stock shows signs of weakness at that level, like large volumes on sell down, better sell for a small profit for the mean time.

Note: I have made a mistake last week of positng the TUNA chart for the PSEi analysis and the PSEi chart for the TUNA analysis.

EDC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.25 Support: 2.50)

EDC is showing a big smile: characteristics of a rounding bottom pattern. However, I’m not seeing a breakout of this pattern anytime soon because the stock is very much overbought. However, this pattern may still transform into a cup and handle pattern in the future, so watchout for this stock.

FGEN (Chart: Daily Resistance: 21.50 Support: 19.50)

FGEN also showing patterns of a rounding bottom and may have already broken-out of this formation. There is good build-up of volume as the stock pushed beyond the resistance line. Looking also at the weekly and monthly charts, both are also displaying a very good picture of the strength for this stock. FGEN is one of the very few stocks that made it near the 260 day MA(green line). Looking at the MACD, this is a candidate stock to hold for the long haul as long as the MACD stays above the center line. However, the stock is already overbought, so expect some further selling to happen. Target price for the rounding bottom pattern is at 28. If you buy at 20, cutloss is at 19.00 if the stock turns sour.

StockWatch (Mar 09-13, 2009): PSEi, TUNA

Note: (Mar 15, 2009)- I made a mistake of posting the TUNA chart for the PSEi analysis and the PSEi chart for the TUNA analysis. I have now corrected this mistake.


PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1932/2036/2092 Support: 1837)

Looks like the long sideways waiting game is over. The index now got its beat back with a short rally last week accompanied with high volume. Currently the index is just above the 65 day MA, which is a very good sign. The support line connecting the lows of Aug 2007 to Jul 2008 provided a good support while the index was lazily moving sideways. As of current the short term trend is upwards, but there is still no good lead as to where the index would go in the long term. A thing to observe though, the 65 day MA is currently moving near the 130 day MA. If it moves above the 130 day MA, then we have a confirmation that buyers are starting to get in the market again and hopefully jumpstart the life of index.


TUNA (Chart : Daily Resistance: 1.40-150 Support: 1.14)

TUNA has long been moving downwards and it seems that this stock has now reached oversold level. The previous low of 1.14 seems to have provided support last Friday when the stock moved lower, but eventually closed at the same level as the opening price. For the following weeks, watch for a possible rally and retest of resistance line, connecting the troughs from the previous low, this is the support turned resistance line when the stock broke down from this line last Feb.

In Retrospect: PAX, TUNA

PAX

PAX moved further down to 10.25 confirming the breakdown from the symmetrical triangle. As of current target price of P9.00 is not yet achieved. The move down has created a downward channel. The bullish divergence is still intact as of the moment, but price may still move further down dragging the RSI and MACD

TUNA

The price for TUNA is currently trapped in between the 65 and 130 day MA. There is still a possibility for a flag/pennant breakout for TUNA with a target price of around 2.25
Support is at 2.00

StockWatch (Oct 8-12, 2007): PSEi, PAX, TUNA, MIC

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3820 Support: 3600)

..and the Bulls are back! Of the 2 resistance I pointed out last week, we have successfully surpassed one of it, which is the gap down last July and with good increasing volume! As of current we are just a few points away from creating a new high. If the previous high is taken out, that would be the official opening of the bull season, so get ready to ride the bull! Thing to watch out though is the RSI, which is now overbought. Any downward move is welcome as long as the index does not go below 3600.

PAX(Chart: Daily Resistance: 13.50 Support: 11.25)

We have a mixed pattern for PAX. A symmetrical triangle and a falling wedge. The symmetrical triangle broke down with a target price of 9.00. However the breakdown has formed a lower low creating a falling wedge with a target price of 16.50. At this point either of the 2 patterns is a possibility. If by next week price moves above 12.25, the falling wedge is confirmed, otherwise if price moves below 11.25 the symmetrical triangle is confirmed. As of the moment, the chart is exhibiting a bullish divergence with price forming a lower low and MACD and RSI forming a higher low. However, again, this is still not confirmed, if price moves lower, MACD and RSI may follow invalidating the current divergence we are seeing.

TUNA(Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.10/2.60 Support: 1.86)

TUNA brokeout from a small symmetrical triangle and target price was immediately achieveh. However, this can still be a candidate for a flag/pennant formation. We now have the flagpole formation. It is possible that further extension to the pole may form next week.

MIC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 8.10/9.20/11.50 Support: 6.10)

MIC brokeout from a symmetrical triangle. Target price is at 13.00. Upcoming resistance at 8.10 which is the 61.8% Fib retracement and 9.20, the previous high.


General Analysis: A lot of issues already brokeout from a triangle formation or a breakout from a trend with sufficient volume.. Watch out for the following. PA, MBT, PLTL, FDC, WEB

In Retrospect : ISM, TUNA

ISM

The stock opened high and closed low on the first day of trading for last week. It reached to a high of 0.075 and a low of 0.065. The succeeding days were followed by a sell off with minimal volume. Based on the previous week’s volume a lot are still holding on to the stock even if the price moved back in the triangle. Probably, most have a low average price on this stock or may be a lot are still hopeful for this stock. Who knows what the reason is, but as of current there is still a high probably of this stock trying to go beyond 0.0675. But before doing that, the price may experience resistance along the way up, as those who have jittery hands might sell on the first sign of strength to stay liquid in the current volatile market. Recommendation: Hold. If price still goes below the 65 day moving average, sell. If the price is unable to go beyond 0.0675 and continues to consolidate within the week, sell. The momentum might fizzle out if it continues to consolidate.


TUNA

I never thought this stock could go below 1.92, but in this volatile situation, any thing is possible. Stock went as low as 1.88 and the MACD dived back and went below zero. So much for my expectation of momentum picking up when MACD crosses above zero line.

StockWatch (Mar 05-09, 2007): ISM, TUNA

ISM (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.070/0.0775 Support: 0.0675)

This stock may have broken out of an ascending triangle. But I could not confirm if it is a valid ascending triangle as previous volume has been dwarfed by the increase of volume. If this is a valid break out from an ascending triangle, the target price is 0.085. Recommendation: Buy. Watch out if the price pulls back in the triangle.

TUNA (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.28 /2.36 Support: 2.06/2.04)

TUNA doesn’t have an area pattern, but what could be promising for this stock is the MACD’s recent break above the zero line. Signal for going long. This is a stock to watchout for.



General Analysis:
A lot of stock has started to display short term bearishness in their MACD. For the following days watch out for further consolidation. This would be a chance to spot new area patterns.