In Retrospect: MERB, MEG, UPM, MIC, AEV

MERB ‘s “looks as if” did not materialize. MACD crossed upward but went back below the signal line while price moved sideways and has touched the support line on the last trading day. On the coming week watch out for the support line at 69 and the resistance line at 72, the symmetrical triangle is intact, but it is now near the apex, so there is a high probability of the symmetrical triangle being invalidated.

MEG had a failed break out from an ascending triangle. Price broke the resistance line at 3.30. Volume only came in when the price pulled back below 3.30. Interestingly, even if the ascending triangle is invalidated, we can expect another ascending triangle in the formation, with resistance at 3.45 and target price at 4.30


UPM also had a failed break out from a symmetrical triangle. Volume was very high on the breakout day, but it failed to sustain the upward move. Price went as high as 0.85 but closed just 1 fluc above the opening price. It is now forming an ascending triangle with reisstance at 0.85. But the volume from the failed break out somehow invalidates the pattern. Who knows maybe the price movement will just inch its way up as MACD is already indicated a buy long signal.

MIC moved sideways before the failed breakout from a symmetrical triangle. Volume was significantly high on breakout point, but was not sufficient enough to indicate a proper break out. Price may still move down to sideways this coming week so watch out for support at 2.40, 2.30, 2.18 and 1.96. Though the previous symmetrical triangle resistance did not hold, we can still expect a symmetrical triangle, but this time with a higher resistance level.
AEV tried to rally on the last day of trading, closing higher but has signs of weakness as it was unable to move above the 65 day MA. We could expect some up to sideways movement this week with the 65 day MA acting as resistance, but if the following trading days is still accompanied with low volume, the descending triangle still holds, the rally just adjusted the resistance level. A chance to cash in on the rally, better to be liquid than sorry.

StockWatch (Mar 26-30, 2007) : MERB, MEG, UPM, MIC, AEV

MERB (Chart: Daily Resistance: 62/73-75 Support: 67.50)

MERB looks as if forming a symmetrical triangle. MACD looks as if it is about to cross over, but all of this is just “looks as if”. Watch out for resistance at 73, if price breaks out, target price is around 85. The breakout has to have a big volume as it has to struggle on its upward move because of the resistance along the way up. Recommendation: Buy only on break out. Watch out for resistance levels 75, 78, 80

MEG (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.30 Support: 3.10/2.95)

MEG is forming an ascending triangle. A gap up with high volume happened last Thursday which suggests the stocks strength. MACD has slightly crossed above signal line. The resistance at 3.30 needs to be broken with high volume, otherwise if there was no volume, the movement might be stopped by another resistance at 3.45 and may probably move back in the triangle. Recommendation: Buy on breakout only. The price movement is very near the apex of the ascending triangle, there is still a high possibility that the formation might be invalidated. The target price is at 4.0. You can still buy this stock at 3.50-3.60 level for a substantial gain if it does move with volume. Volume needs to be higher than 100M trades.

UPM (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.80 Support: 0.69)

UPM is forming a symmetrical triangle. But it currently needs to break out from the 65 day MA. This stock still has a long way to go before breaking out. One good sign though is the MACD crossing over signal line and the upcoming cross above the zero line. Let’s see what would happen in a couple of days. This stock could either move above 65 day MA or trade the range within the 65 day MA and the support line.

MIC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.50 Support: 1.58)

MIC is also forming a symmetrical triangle. At this point, the price may still trade the range. If price does break out of the area pattern, target price is 4.80. Recommendation: Buy only on break out. Buying at this level might be costly as price may still move either sideways or downwards.

AEV( Chart : Daily Resistance: 8.30 Support: 7.80)

AEV is forming a descending triangle. Price movement has respected the resistance line on 2 occasions and on the last 2 trading days; AEV touched resistance for the third time at 8.40 and fell back. At this point, the price movement is squeezed by the resistance line and the 65 day MA. Price may either move sideways if the 65 day MA would hold, otherwise the price may move further down, re-testing support at 7.80 or 7.70. If the descending triangle holds and price breaks down, price may move further down to 6.0 level. Watch out for support at 7.20, the long term support, the 130 and 260 day MA on its way down.

In Retrospect : ASIA, COL, APC, UPM

ASIA

ASIA went up for another day before the sell down. The possibility of a flag or pennant formation fizzled out .

COL

COL seem to have successfully broken the pennant formation and has reached the target price at 7.5.

APC

APC retested support and seems to be on a sideward movement for the moment. Might have established support at 0.41. If price moves below 0.41, sell.

UPM

The possible symmetrical triangle was invalidated as price went to as low as 0.68. Price formation transformed to either a downward channel or a slender symmetrical triangle.

StockWatch (Feb 19-23): ASIA, COL, APC, UPM

ASIA (Chart: Daily Resistance: 13 Support: 10.25)

ASIA maybe forming a flag or a pennant. The pole is already formed; we just have to wait for the flag or pennant. Recommendation: Wait for 3 days to see if a flag or pennant forms

COL (Chart: Daily Resistance:6.2 Support: 5.6 )

COL may be forming a flag or pennant also. The pole has been formed and we just have to wait for the formation of the flag or pennant. Recommendation: Wait for 3 days to see if a flag or pennant is formed

APC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.47 Support: 0.40)

APC seem to have broken from a symmetrical triangle in the last minute. A possible upside of 0.58. Recommendation: Buy near support. Price may re-test support before moving upwards again.

UPM (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.80 Support: 0.72)

UPM still has its symmetrical triangle intact. Possible upside of P1.00. Recommendation: Wait for the break out. At this point the price should bounce up. If not, this means a prolonged symmetrical triangle. This is also a candidate for range trading. Buy at support, sell at resistance. If price move further down, sell at 0.70

In Retrospect : AEV, VUL, UPM, PLTL

AEV
I was wrong with AEV with its support line. The stock went to as low as 7.70 before bouncing up. As of now 7.70 looks like a strong support for this stock. Watch out for a move upward towards 9 for this stock

VUL
I was wrong again with the support level for this stock. The stock went as low as 1.44 and a high of 1.54. But the symmetrical triangle is still intact.

UPM
UPM broke resistance, but the volume was not sufficient and the price went back in the triangle. It had a gap down Monday trading and may possibly test support at 0.70

PLTL
Had a valid break out, but the price went back in the ascending triangle. Succeeding days saw sell down of the stock with volume. Expect for prices to still move downward if 6.80 support doesn’t hold