StockWatch (Mar 7-11, 2011): PSEi, FGEN, LR, LPZ

PSEi –Weekly Chart

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3950/3980 Support: 3705/3605)

The index made good progress last week starting the trading week with a white candle accompanied with large value turnover. The confirmation of the bullish start of the week came only on Thursday as the index was able to move higher with large value turnover compared to last week.

Looking at the weekly chart we can also see bullish engulfing pattern, where the white candle created last week engulfs the black candle created the previous week. The bullish engulfing pattern was also accompanied by large value turnover. They are bullish signs of reversal, but a confirmation is still needed.

For the coming week, there is a certainty that the index would continue its upward movement. However there is an upcoming resistance near the area of 3950 and 3980; these are areas from the resistance line stretching from Feb 2010. The same resistance line has been tested last Feb 18 but was unsuccessful at moving beyond that line. If the index is able to move beyond that line with large value turnover, this might be a sign that we might have a fighting chance to break above the standing downward channel; the resistance line since the start of the bearish trend last Nov 2010. We are still not out of the woods yet even if that happens, because there is still another major resistance near 4400, but at least we are gaining positive movements.

FGEN (Chart: Daily Resistance: 12.20/12.50 Support: 11.60/11.20)

FGEN broke out of a falling wedge formation accompanied with very large volume last Wed. At the same time the recent run up also broke above the 65 day MA. The target price for the breakout is around 13-13.50.

There is an upcoming resistance at 12.20 which is the 130 day MA. For the coming week, there is a high possibility for the stock to move sideways for the mean time. It is possible that the stock would just move in a range between 65 day MA (red) and 130 day MA (orange). As long as the downward movement does not have large volume, it is safe to assume that the sideways movement is just a pause before the stock further moves upward.

LR (Chart: Daily Resistance: 8.80 Support: 7.00/6.60)

LR also broke out of a falling wedge with large volume last Thursday. The target price for the formation is at 9.00. Upcoming resistance is near 8.80 which is the previous high.

LPZ (Chart: Daily Resistance: 6.00/6.60 Support: 5.00/4.40)

LPZ broke out of a sideways channel last Friday, accompanied with large volume. Target price for the channel breakout is at 6.80. There is however an upcoming resistance near 6.00. It is possible that the stock may move in range between 5.60 and 6.00 as the RSI is very much overbought. As always, if the volume on the downward movement is larger than the upward movement, that may be an indication of a bull trap.

StockWatch (Jan 10-14, 2011): PSEi, PCOR, LR, CYBR

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 4246/4260 Support: 4180/4090)

As expected the index went sideways to downward. It is currently trading in a very narrow channel, between the 65 day MA (4180) and the resistance connecting the previous highs. The last trading day last week saw a black candle accompanied with large value turnover and because of this, I believe that it won’t be long that the 65 day MA would be broken and we would see the index moving downwards towards support at 4090. Do observe if the support holds, if this does hold, then we have an ascending triangle formation for the index which is a good sign.
 

PCOR Weekly

PCOR (Chart: Daily Resistance: 19.98 Support: 17.50/15)

PCOR has been very bullish since November last year and has been accompanied with large volume. However, this bullishness is now capped by an bearish engulfing pattern on Tuesday last week with substantially large volume and has since started the downward movement for the whole week last week. The MACD is about to cross below the signal line, the RSI as well displays some bearish divergence, the stochastics as well is displaying bearish signs. The weekly chart is also displaying bearish signs, the black candle is accompanied by an almost equal amount of volume from the previous week. So for the coming week, do expect the bearish sentiment to continue and break the support line. Next possible support is at 15 which is the previous low and at the same time the 38.2% Fibonacci level from the start of the run up. Usually when a stock comes from an exceedingly high RSI value, the 50 level usually acts as support so do also watchout for that event for a possible short bounce back up to the support-turned-resistance line, your second chance at getting out if you get stuck by next week

LR Weekly Chart


LR (Chart: Daily Resistance: 6.00 Support: 4.25/2.62)

Looking at the weekly chart, LR had a breakout last Friday from a rounding bottom formation. Target price is near 8.00. The stock however is very much overbought so be cautious in trading this stock. Sell on the first sign of weakness or signs of reversal.

CYBR – Weekly Chart

CYBR (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.05 Support: 0.74/0.64)

CYBR had two significant events last week. Looking at the daily chart, we can see that the recent bullish run saw the stock breaking the very long symmetrical triangle. The target price of the symmetrical triangle is near 1.05 which is now nearly achieved last Friday. The second event is the breaking of a cup and handle formation or a rounding bottom formation seen in the weekly chart, and the target price of this breakout is near 1.50. Do exercise caution in trading this stock as the immediate target price is almost achieved, getting in at this point to capitalize on the breakout of the cup and handle formation is very risky. Wait for the correction before getting in this stock.

StockWatch (Nov 29 – Dec 03, 2010): PSEi, LR, GLO

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 4220 Support: 3800)

The corrective C wave happened earlier than what I expected, starting the trading last week with a downward movement which continued for the whole week. The downward movement stopped just on top of the 65 day MA, so it’s a wait-and-see if the 65 day MA would provide support for the index. If the index continues its downward movement going further below the 65 day MA, next support is the 130 day MA at 3800. If the index does continue to move further downward, I believe that it won’t be that long before the index bounces from the lows as the RSI is near oversold level. Look out for signs of reversal, especially the breaking of the downward trend line formed by connecting the peaks of the corrective C wave.

LR Weekly Chart

LR (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.7 Support: 2.5 )

Looking from the daily chart LR has broken out with large volume from a symmetrical triangle. Its possible target price is at 3.0. The only problem with LR is that every time a break out happens, it immediately collapses and follows the support line. This is also evident on weekly chart, when each breakout happens, it usually is near resistance line and does not move further above that, so next week is a wait-and-see if the recent breakout will push through this time and not collapse. Observe if the volume on succeeding trading days forms a white candle with a relatively large volume (greater than 3M). If the breakout does push through, we may see the stock aiming for the previous high near 4.25.

GLO (Chart: Daily Resistance: 900 Support: 762)

GLO has been bearish all year round, but looking at this daily chart, this stock may now be on its way out of its bearish situation with a possible double bottom. Previous low is near 762. RSI is now very much oversold so watch out for a possible bounce. The neck line for the double bottom is at 905, a break above that with large volume confirms the double bottom formation. The breaking of the neck line is still way too far, but one can make profits by trading the range from the current level to the neck line.

StockWatch (Mar 22-26, 2010): PSEi, PCOR, MPI, LR

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3133 Support: 3021/2977/2787)

For the past weeks, the index is able to move higher everytime a dip occurs, this time around, we are still waiting for this to happen, but it seems that the resistance at 3133 level is a strong resistance, so this might not happen yet immediately. For the coming week expect the index to move sideways. Watch out for the downward movement of the index, the double top scenario is still a possibility

PCOR (Chart: Daily Resistance: 6.20/6.50 Support: 5.50/5.00)

PCOR had a large volume and large spread last Thursday. This seems to have broken out of the sideways channel resistance at 5.90. The dip the next day seems to be a return move, but the volume was low. Upward target price for this is around 6.80, but a possible resistance at 6.50 may be encountered, as this level is the long standing support-turned-resistance level connecting the trough from 2005 to 2008.

MPI (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.15/3.80 Support: 2.80)

MPI seems to be promising as the stock seems to be in the doorstep of breaking out of a possible rounding bottom, or double bottom formation, either way, both have a target price of 4.10. But before reaching that level, there is a resistance at 3.80 which is the previous high

LR (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.90 Support: 1.68)

LR seems to also be on the doorstep of a breakout from a pennant formation, with target price at 2.05. The level at 1.90 is possibly a strong resistance as this is the recent high.

StockWatch (Jul 07-11, 2008): PSEi, LR, RLC, DGTL

PSEi Weekly Chart

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2425-2400 Support: 2289/2100)

The support line from Jan 2008 was tested for the 5th time last week and it was not able to contain the index’s downward move. The index, punched thru the support line moving downwards up to the lowest at 2289. Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that there was a support at that level, which was the 260-MA on the weekly chart at 2300. However, this may just be a temporary support for the index as judging from the break down from the channel, there is a possibility that the index could still move lower towards the downward channel’s target price near 2100. Last Friday’s upward move may just be a short rally as there was no volume to support the upward movement. Still trading strategy would be to keep liquid. No signs of reversal can be seen from the charts.

Note: There are a lot of stocks that are very much oversold, be careful on trading these stocks, as any upward move might just be a short rally from being very oversold. If you are to trade these kinds of stocks, keep an eye on your stops as the market is still very bearish.

LR (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.80 Support: 2.24/2.06)

LR seems to be a promising stock to follow. The stock had a large spread and large volume last Friday. Also worth noting is the price which is now above the 3 moving averages. This denotes strength for the stock. Looking also at the MACD, the MACD is now above the zero line and now poised to cross above the signal line, both signs also indicate strength in the stock. But how long can this strength last is another question that may not have a definite answer. As of now, resistance is at 2.80, which is the previous high. We can assume for now that the strength that we are seeing can take this stock from 2.60 to 2.80, beyond that is still a wait and see. I am more inclined to call that 2.80 will be a strong resistance, judging from the RSI which is now near overbought.

RLC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 6.30-6.60/ 9.50 Support: 6.0)

RLC is one of those stocks that are very much oversold. What caught my attention for this stock is the unusual large volume last Friday which may translate to a strong support at 6.00. Resistance is currently at 6.30-6.60 which is the gap down formed last Thursday. If you are to trade this stock, keep track of your stops. It is possible that the stock may reach beyond 8.00, based only from the 38.2% fib retracement, which is at 8.30.

DGTL (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.46 Support: 1.24)

Comparing DGTL with the PSEi, DGTL seems to be in a better position than the index. As we can see, the recent downward movement of the stock is not really part of a bearish cycle, but more part of the consolidation that is happening for this stock. Looking at the chart, we can see that the MACD has been oscillating near the zero line which indicates consolidation and it is also evident on the price action. Currently there is an upcoming support at 1.24; it would be good if the stock is able to stay above this support line from Sept 2004. Otherwise, if the stock moves lower than the support line, then this might probably be the end of the consolidation phase for this stock and may move to a bearish phase. But judging again from the RSI which is very much oversold, it is highly probable that the support at 1.24 may hold.