Lessons I Learned from 2007

I started this blogsite with the intention of looking back at my analysis and trades and somehow extract lessons from the year that was. And now, I just would like to share some of my realizations that might also help new traders in their analysis and trades.

Technical Analysis Lessons Learned

1. Don’t forget to look at the broader picture!

During basic technical analysis, we were taught that there are 2 kinds of approach in analysis, its either you go from macro to micro view or you go the other way around, whether it be fundamental analysis or technical analysis. Either way, the approach intends for the person doing the analysis to take also into consideration the broader picture of the market. That lesson did not stick much in my mind because I was subscribed to the idea that focusing on the micro view was all that I need since the micro constitutes the macro view. Any movements in the stocks will definitely affect the index. While it is true that movements in the micro view will have an effect in the macro view, the problem with subscribing to that idea was that sometimes the general movement of the market does not become immediately obvious in the micro view.

I learned from this the hard way when the first big market drop happened last Feb 2007. I was very much subscribed to the idea that the micro view is all that I need to aid me in my trades. What happened was that the stocks I was trading were doing well in the market and since it was doing well, I was not paying attention to the broader picture given by the index, which at that time, was already displaying a bearish divergence, with the price going higher and MACD and RSI going lower. Ofcourse I was stuck when the drop happened.

2. RSI = 30 is not the bottom

In basic technical analysis, we were taught that RSI of 30 means oversold and usually once a stock breaches this level, bulls come in and pick up the stock at a bargain price and consequently pull up the price. The year 2007 opened my eyes to first hand experience of a very bearish action in the market, where the RSI for the index went as low as 18 and some stocks going as low as 7 in their RSI.

I previously had a strategy of picking out stocks based on RSI that is near oversold level of 30. I learned a lesson the hard way when I started picking up stocks last July, those with RSI breaching the 30 level. Since the market was very bearish, the pull up that I was hoping did not materialize and I got burned. The mistake I had was relying too much with the oversold indicator of the RSI without considering the general movement of the market. I had luck in applying this strategy in the previous years because the market was ranging in 2005, and in 2006, an RSI near 30 immediately pulls up because of the bullish sentiment in the market. The RSI is only reliable during ranging market and is unreliable during trending markets. During bullish trends, it gives you an unreliable overbought signal and while during bearish trends, it gives you an unreliable oversold signal. I fell for the latter and got burned.

3. Time frame of the divergence.

In my previous analysis, I was calling bullish and bearish divergence on some stocks but was not seeing it materialize. That’s when I got very much confused with the concept of divergences. Thankfully, thru the advanced technical analysis sessions given by the Absolute Traders, I learned that I also have to consider the time frame when the divergence occurred. A shorter time frame makes a divergence much more reliable. The mistake I had was that I was calling divergence on a wider time frame, making the divergence less reliable.



Trading Lessons Learned

1. You have to be agile in changing your trading strategy to conform to the market trend.

This was pointed out by Fitz Aclan in one of the Absolute Traders’ Chart Analysis Forum sessions. In order to minimize losses, a trader has to be agile enough in changing their strategies to conform to the market trend. This was one of the big realizations that I had this year. I started trading stocks on 2005 and during that time the market was moving sideways. I was used to the trading strategy of having quick, short term positions because of the ranging movement of the market. When 2006 came, the market started to move in an upward trend. Because I was used to having quick, short term positions, I was not benefiting much from the bullishness of the market in that year. It took me some time before I was able to adopt a new trading strategy of going long and riding the bullish momentum. And again when 2007 came, since I was not paying attention to the broader view of the market and also since I adopted a strategy of going long on the stocks, I found myself loosing some of the gains that I had when the market started to drop. I was going long, when I should have been locking in the gains.

I was lacking on 2 things in my trading strategy, first is looking at the broader picture of the market and the second is at being agile in adapting to the current market trends. I was not looking at the broader picture of the market, so I did not have an idea of where the market was at that time and where it’s poised to move. And since I did not have any idea of my environment, I was not able to quickly adapt to the change in the market movement. I was going short, when I should have been taking advantage of the momentum and I went long when I should have started going short and locking in profits.

2. When you increase your fund size you have to be ready with a plan.

The year 2006 was fruitful year for me in my trades. In that year I had accounted for a considerable profit from my fund and I saw the potential of earning more with my trades. And so I was lured into increasing my fund size for 2007.

Having a small fund before, I was used to trading small amounts, having small profits and incurring small losses. I could still bear the loss even if the stock’s price went below the cutloss level. When I increased my fund, I was not psychologically prepared. My mindset was still in trading small amounts, so when I made some trades, I found myself having some funds left. Being a gung-ho, trigger happy trader, I either increased my current position in a stock or bought other stocks. This was going well for me when I was winning the trades, however when I started to incurr losses, I also found out that I was also not emotionally prepared for it. Having more positions, I of course incurred more losses and I was very much disappointed and depressed with most of my trades. And being emotionally unstable when trading, led me from one trading mistake to another.

Being an inexperienced trader, much more a fund manager, the only equation that I had in my mind was Increased Fund Size = Increased Earnings. Now, having incurred those losses, I painfully discovered the other half of the equation was Increased Fund Size = Increased Risk. I was not psychologically and emotionally prepared with handling more funds. I did not have a game plan. David Hanson had an article in his blog about this, and as he puts it, increasing your funds means your “starting a new career because your capital has changed”.

Now how do you become psychologically and emotionally prepared for it? You map out a game plan for your fund, even if it is just a small fund. These are just some items to consider for your plan: Know how much earnings you desire to achieve for your fund and when you’ve reached that, lock in your profits. The other side of it is knowing how much losses you can take if incase the market is not in your favor. Study and plan out your trades, know when to get in and out. Know how many stocks you can hold at the same time while also ensuring that you can properly follow and promptly react to their movements. This was a mistake that I had, having a larger fund, I took in 5 stocks at the same time and ofcourse this was going well when I was winning, but it had me panicking when I started to loss on all fronts. My attention was divided and so I was not equipped with the proper study and plan for each stock and also I was not able to react promptly to each movement.


3. Earn to give.

I read this article in Inquirer by Conrado Banal III about the GMA7 IPO.

"But there is more to IPOs than just raising the interest-free cash. They are the only definitive equitable way to spread the wealth.

Look, when GMA Network (Channel 7) for instance recently did its IPO, it also did not need the money, as the foreign fund managers pointed out to the GMA 7 people, particularly Felipe Gozon, president and CEO, during the company’s roadshow for the IPO.

Well, the network was looking at a cash flow of about P3 billion this year.

What Gozon told the fund managers might have floored them. He said the network just wanted to share its good fortune with the public."

Wow! That statement definitely floored me. They were doing the IPO to spread their earnings! Which lead me to ask myself, why was I trading? What was my purpose for trading? Bo Sanchez’s book “8 Secrets of the Truly Rich” also asks a similar question,

"Why am I earning money and why am I in business anyway?"

And his answers were simple, first, because he loves his family, and second, because he wants to love beyond his family. And again…Wow! Sometimes when I trade, I only think of earning for myself and my family. The blessings that I receive never went beyond my space. Having thought about it, it makes perfect sense to apply these in my trades: I trade because I want to earn and I want to earn so that I could give more to my family and to others. Applying this frame of mind means being responsible with my trades. I need to do my best, do my homework, observe my stops and lock in the gains, because it is not only me who will benefit, but also others can benefit from my earnings. Sometimes, when I trade I only consider myself, thinking that I alone, am assuming the risk and the losses. But when I apply this mind set, I am also involving my family and others in the risk, so I need to be responsible with my trades. When I do not follow my trading plan because of “greed” in winning trades or follow and nurture “false hopes” in loosing trades, I am willfully risking the opportunity of giving more to my family and to others.


The above are just some of my realizations. I hope that others may also benefit and learn thru my mistakes and realizations.

Steve Irwin passed away Sept 4, 2006

Just heard a bad news, the Croc hunter Steve Irwin recently died while shooting a film in the Great Barrier Reef. A Stingray punctured his chest hitting his heart directly, the other bad thing about it is that the Stingray’s tail excrete poisonous fluid. It was a double whammy for Steve, heart puncture with a poison. I always thought he’d have an accident with a croc or a snake, never thought that a stingray would get him.

Pluto got booted out of the Solar System society of planets

I was too busy with work that I haven't been reading the news lately. I got the shock of a lifetime when I heard from Jay Leno that Pluto just got booted out of the elite planet society of the Solar system. I thought at first, Jay Leno was just kidding, but as I searched the internet, it turns out that it was true. (http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/space/08/24/pluto.ap/index.html).

Just my thought, this latest demotion of Pluto to a dwarf planet just added Pluto to the top of the list of other possible attackers of Earth. (Forget about the Marsians, they don't have a grudge against Earthlings, they just want to conquer the planet. ) The dawn of the Macross days is near! hehehehehe!

The Trend is your Friend, but a Trailing Stop is your Best Friend!

I had a mixed feeling on the current bull run. I was definitely happy that my stock went up(of course who wouldn’t be?), but at the same time I was apprehensive of the movement.

Generally, I was apprehensive on the whole market as from my last analysis, the market was overbought, with lots of stocks already breaking their resistance and reaching the RSI overbought line a week ago. I expected that any upward movement for the week that passed might just be some form of a last salvo from the bulls. I was expecting a correction, and I was expecting it to hit hard and fast just as the bull run did, that’s why I am very apprehensive. I was afraid that the profit I now have might just be snatched away by a sudden correction. I had two options, sell once my target price has been reached or try to maximize my profit but with the risk of being caught in a selling stampede during the correction.

But last Saturday night’s EB took my worries away. I got reminded of the phrase, the “Trend is your Friend”. A stock movement that is trending upward is your friend, and you just would have to ride the trend.

The next question I had was, how would I be able to confirm if the Trend is really my friend? As what Danny has emphasized time and again, look at the volume!. The volume would tell you how true your friend is to you. Commenting a line from Wilson, “if there is volume there is a commitment”. If the upward trend is accompanied by large volume, it confirms that the upward trend is not likely to return to the take off level. Because there is a large volume accompanying the trend, there is a large confirmed commitment from the new owners that they are not likely to sell the stock at a price lower than their buying level.

But…even friends become worst of enemies… I wouldn’t discount the possibility of a trend encountering a correction; of course it’s not a perpetual upward trend. If the Trend is your friend, then a Trailing Stop is a Trader’s best friend! If you’re a Maverick trader who likes to maximize profits way beyond a target price, then I suggest that you start to be-friend the Trailing Stop. A trailing stop saves you from a back stabbing Trend friend by protecting your profit. Too bad my current broker, a Broker Persistently Inaccessible, doesn’t have a Trailing stop facility. If it did, I wouldn’t be apprehensive of maximizing my profit. But come to think of it do other online trading systems have a trailing stop?

Hurrah to the Trader Central EB Organizers!!!

I attended the Trader Central EB last Saturday night and it was definitely a great success. On the moment I stepped in the EB area, I was welcomed with a great smile from no other than the First Lady of Accord Capital, Madame President Shirley and of course the friendly pipol from Accord (I think they were the marketing officers). I was able to catch only half part of the program coz I came in late (sagabal talaga sa gimik ang trabaho!). But even though I was late, the half part of the program was still very much informative.

The night continued with the analysis of PHISIX and some stocks, by request from the attendees. The veteran traders Danny, Bonner, and Miko were there to give their personal analysis on the stocks.

The night was also the launching night of Accord Capital’s online trading platform www.philstocks.ph and this was introduced by no other than the main Techie man from Accord, Rapi.

At the end of the night I got to chat with my fellow El Dorado batchmates and we got to conclude “na Sulit yun pag attend ng EB”. Of course sulit na sulit, El Dorado Members got to pay only P100, courtesy of Accord. And for that amount we got, a dinner, plus lots of freebies like personalized cap, mouse pad, snacks from Stateline Foods (courtesy of an El Dorado member from Batch 5 or 6? sorry sir wasn’t able to take down you name) and cardboard fans from Inquirer courtesy of “Guyito” and “Morrissey” (it was one of the freebies that I got to immediately use, that night was a little bit humid, so the cardboard fans were definitely handy). The greatest freebies of all…were the analysis and personal recommendations from the Masters of TA.

Thanks and congratulations to Accord Capital and to the organizers of Trader Central for a great EB. Definitely looking forward to the next EB. Boss Bonner, sa hotel na ba yun susunod na EB? Sagot mo? hehehehehehe….. =)

Bret The Hitman Hart Rules!!!

It has been a long…long….loooong….time since I watched a wrestling match. Believe me, it was too long that the last time I could remember, I was still rooting for Bret the Hitman Hart, the BushWhackers were still battling it out against the Demolition team and WWE was still called WWF. I got re-aquainted again with wrestling this past holy week coz a nephew of mine was fanatically watching Wrestle Mania 22. Ofcourse not to my surprise, Bret is now just in the annals of wrestling history together with the Ultimate Warrior. But what surprised me most was that the Hulkster was still performing, still clad in the signature red and yellow costume (not to mention the kungfu master mustache and beard). He sure doesn’t know when to retire.

There were still some old faces from the yester years that I could identify like the Under Taker (just had a 14-0 stat in the casket match =p ),Shawn Michaels, Vince McMahon, Rowdy Piper(yes..the Rowdy Roddy skirt wearing Piper). The rest are new to my ears.

advertiseph

advertiseph
(www.advertiseph.com)
-site owned by an officemate of mine. The site is an ads site which you can post your for sale stuff for free.Its still in its startup stage so expect enhancements to come along the way to better cater to your needs.

TraderCentral.ph

TraderCentral.ph
(www.tradercentral.com.ph)
-There's a new forum in the block and it's named TraderCentral.ph. As the name implies, this forum is a convergence site for traders. Expect discussions about a stock from a technical analyst's point of view. There are also topics on TALK (Technical Analysis Learning and Knowledge base) and if your still trying to grasp the TA chit-chats in this forum, you can post a question in the TALK area and some of the members will ofcourse gladly help you out. This forum is just in its infancy stage, but given some time, this will definitely grow in to a big community.

Kudos to TraderCentral pipol for setting up such a site.

What's up with the 5GQ stock?

I left off last time with the analysis on the 5GQ(SA) stock analysis as to what is keeping the stock from appreciating. It seems that from the last time I checked there was only sideways movement with a strong resistance that formed at 0.12. But recent news has jolted the price up and back down again. As what I have said previously, this stock lacks some positive news to propel it upwards. But last Feb 9 an upward price movement happened with significant volume and expansion in price. Coincidentally it was also a day after the release of news confirming the creation of another office in Pakistan plus a good number of growing clients in Pakistan. Players might have been enticed by this news that price expanded from 0.13 to 0.14. But the sudden expansion in volume and price was not sustained long enough and a strong resistance was formed at 0.14 level. By Feb 15 the price stumbled back to 0.12 level, which was the previous resistance and now the current support level. This might have been due to the yearly report that was disclosed to the stock market last Feb 14, where in it confirmed the previous profit warning that was disclosed last Dec. Profit was down a half percent year-on-year. Just as a good news propelled the price with volume, this recent confirmation of a previously announced bad news kicked the price downwards from 0.13 to 0.12. The only positive thing about the downward price movement was that there was no significant volume. It means a lot are still holding on to their stocks and there was only a considerable few who gave up on the stock. The 0.12 price level would now act as a support price level, hopefully the price would stay above that level and if it does so, the possibility of 0.15-0.17 level is still within reach. I expect that the 2nd quarter report may be the propelling event of the stock. So hold on to your seats up until Sept for that report.

What's keeping it from appreciating?

So we've looked upon the positive side of the story. So whats keeping the good side of the story from being realized?

A couple of things are blocking the way:

1. Resistance Lines

Resistance lines are areas of Major Supply. These are lines where selling is greatest. A couple of resistance lines are blocking the way for the price to further appreciate. At the following price levels you may enounter heavy selling: 0.12, 0.15, 0.17. These are just some of the resistance lines that can be easily identified.
You might ask why are those price levels blocking the appreciation of the stock price? The simple aswer is that many may have bought at those levels. So if most holders bought at those levels, there is a possibility that they might want to sell at the same price and just absorb the transaction costs.
Why would they want to sell at that level when it is clear that prices are starting to rise? Many factors may influence the holders of this stock to sell at that level and not wait for the stock to appreciate further. One reason is that they got severely burned by the drop in prices that they just want to be out of the stock at an acceptable level of loss.

2. Liquidity problem

As I have mentioned in my earlier post, this stock is not that liquid. Meaning there is not much shares being traded. Lack of number of tradeable shares means lack of players and a lack on the number of possible buyers of the stock.

3. Lack of positive news

The last bad news that came out last Dec gave a hard blow on the price of the stock. It needs a positive news like the one announced last Sept. So expect positive or negative news to come out during the quarterly reporting of financial statements.

And so thats it....never imagined it would be a 4 part posting. Whew!

My last recommendation is that, if you dont have patience better get out of this stock. But also, many rewards might await for those who are patient. Hehehe im trying to be the angel and the devil at the same time =p. But then again, its up to you on how risk averse you are.

My last general warning: Play the stock market only with money you can afford to loose.

The good part of the story

As I have said in my previous post that the stocks story is not that all bad news.

Ill try to enumerate the little positive things that can be seen on the chart.

1. It might have reached its bottom.
According to the chart, this stock has formed a descending triangle(right triangle). You can see in the chart a blue line sloping downwards from the middle of Sept to Dec and a horizontal line at 0.17 level. Both line forms the descending triangle. Based on technical analysis, the descending triangle suggests a bearish movement. A lot of holders are selling at lower prices, while the demand stays the same. It would come to a time when the market is swamped with sellers at a lower than low price making a break down of prices. This is what happened last Dec 12, when the price brokedown the demand line. As technical analysis suggests, this downward movement would continue up until a comfortable price level where most buyers would come in and start buyng again. This level was forcasted (see the blue dotted lines) at 0.10 level. And true enough, the downward movement stopped at that level. From that level prices has again started to move up which means buyers are now willing to buy up the price of the stock. Thats just one of the good news.

2. Its MACD line has already crossed the signal line.
Check the line graph above the chart, as you can see there are 2 lines criss-crossing each other. The blue line is an MACD line while the red dotted line is signal line. A blue line crossing above the red line means that the stock is now on the upbeat and futher confirms that buyers are starting to come in the picture. This is evidenced by the price of the stock rising which means they are willing to buy up the stock price. Demand is starting to pickup. Good news number 2

3. Volume is slowly increasing.
The average volume for this stock is around 1M shares traded. As of Jan 12, 2006. Volume was at about 800T shares traded, this means a lot are starting to buy this stock. Hopefully this increase in volume would mean also increase in price.

Next post....What is keeping this stock from appreciating?

The BIG DIP!

As metioned on the previous post, here is my analysis for our company's stock:

As what my instructor told me, lets try to discover the story of this stock before we try to see where it is going.

This stock is highly illiquid as I have observed that there are days when there were zero trades.

Obviously this stock did not have a grand start as it slid way below IPO price from 0.20 down to 0.13 last Aug 2005, the only consolation here is that it went down with low volume.

Come Sept it did make a strong come back as it went up to the 0.20 price in just a few days and went as far as 0.245 with strong volume. I remembered that Sept was the time when the company posted its 12% increase in profits.

But by mid Sept, some of the investors had already started cashing in on the profit as it again slowly went below 0.20 and settled for a long time at the 0.17 level. Notice that volume was not that significant, which means most of the holders are still waiting for it to bounce back. Perhaps they are expecting the stock to rise come Dec and January. Most stocks usually bounce up a significant amount during those days.

Unfortunately instead of bouncing up for the holidays, it dived to 0.15 level and made a big big gap down to 0.10-0.12 level. This was actually a big shock for me and ofcourse probably a lot of stock holders were left out during the gap down. In just a day, the stockprice went nearly 50% below IPO price. My colleague was just scratching his head at the current situation.

Ofcourse the big question was why did it nose dived ? What was happening with this stock? In a bid to help my colleague understand what happened to the stock, I searched SGX for some published disclosures. And true enough, there was a profit warning for half the year ending Dec 31, 2005. The disclosure was posted Dec 16, 2005 in the SGX website. The profit warning was all about our company not achieving a profit for the same term year over year.

what was very surprising, is that the stock started to drop convincingly on Dec 12, but the announcement was released on Dec 16. The sell down starting Dec 12-16 was accompanied by considerable volume trades. Which could mean that even before the announcement was published, some stock holders were already aware of it and started to sell ahead of the others.

The announcement, compounded with the date it was released (friday 6pm) worsened the situation. Panick may have set in on current holders that prompted them to sell down come monday.
The volume trade on monday's opening was high, but started to decline on the next days. Which means a considerable number of stock holders were able to get out on monday, but a lot were still left holding on to the stock. Probably they were not able to react immeaditely as the gap down probably prompted a shock to the holders.....and ofcourse common market psychology may have set in that the holders would rather hold on to the stock tight rather than sell, on hopes that it could still come back to a level where they could call it even.

On the next post, I will try to analyse where the stock may go. The stock's story is not that all bad news, will try to tell you some good news on the next post.

Not all that glitters...uses Johnsons wax =p

Our office had an IPO last June 2005 in the SGX market. I think a lot of my officemates subscribed to the IPO at SGD 0.20 per share. Some of my colleagues from the Singapore office were given stocks for free, so that the company could make it up to them for the time that the company was down and they did not receive any increase.

The IPO, honestly, was very enticing, ofcourse, why not ...its an IPO! Most of the investors think that IPO is a good deal, as stock prices of most of the IPOs after the opening day, sky rocketed. Just look at Google, it had its IPO last Aug 19, 2004. IPO price was at $85, if you are still holding on to that stock now Jan 10, 2006, the stock is now worth $466.9001. You'd drool at the current price! Its 5 times the IPO price, thats 500% increase in just 1 year, its like winning the lottery.

But ofcourse not all IPOs have a happy story to tell. In the local stock market, 2 very prominent companies had their IPO last year. Manila Water Company (MWC) and SM Investments Corp (SM). MWC had an IPO price of P6.50 while SM is at P250. Both IPOs were oversubscribed. The two IPOs were from the best of the business industry: MWC by the Ayala's and SM by the Sy's. I expected both stocks to skyrocket at the first day of trading and continue with its progress, but the sad thing is, it did not.

For MWC it did reach a high of 7.60 but has started to go as low as 5.60 and has since been fluctuating above and below the IPO price (most of the time it was under the IPO price).

For SM, it opened below IPO price, slid down to 216 level in a few days and has never gone far beyond 260 level. Most of the time it was under the IPO price.

Good thing I was late in subscribing to MWC shares, if I did made it in time, I would have been holding this stock for nearly a year now, and still no significant increase from the IPO price. That's why when the IPO offer was announced in our office, I immediately remembered MWC and SM and so I declined the option to buy the stock. Fortunately enough, when I checked the condition of our office's stock price recently, it has already dropped nearly 50% from the offer price. Imagine that!... the money that you invested last june has now decreased by half! (Its like a mid year 50% off sale on the price of the stock!).

For those of my officemates who are holding on to this stock, all I can is say that we could hope that "patience" will have its rewards, but if you do not have patience, I suggest you immediately exit this stock once it bounces back to a level where the profit can cover for your expenses.

I will be posting my analysis on this stock in the next blog entry. Watch for it!

Links Links Links!!!

o Just a compilation of links. Enjoy!

Finance

Tsupitero.com
(www.tsupitero.com)
-site owned by Miko Sayo. This site is updated weekly and features technical analysis of selected stocks in the PSE. So if you would want to know what stocks to buy, you can check out Miko Sayo's website for buy and sell recommendation. I sometimes try to validate my analysis with his findings to see if other analysts are also seeing the same thing that im seeing in the charts.

Finance Manila
(www.financemanila.net)
-site owned by bruce. This site is one of the convergence site for traders. Expect heavy discussion on local stocks and current stock market situations. If youd like to know whats up with you favorite stock, you can check out the specific entry of your stock in the forum.

Accord Capital
(www.accordcapital.ph)
-site owned by accord capital. This is the website of the broker firm that sponsored the location for Bonner and Danny's Technical Analysis seminar. I frequent this site for Bonner Dytoc and Ron Rodrigo's analysis of the market. They are also in the process of providing online trading system for their clients. So do check out their system.

Investopedia
(www.investopedia.com)
-This is the site where i go to when I would want to know a financial term that i've read somewhere. They also have series of different articles on technical analysis as well as fundamental analysis. Their article collection is a treasure trove of financial knowledge.

Stock Charts
(www.stockcharts.com)
-On times when i forget the criteria for a valid chart pattern, i usually check out this website and re-orient myself on the patterns. Ofcourse this site do contain other stock analysis articles as well.

History

Walk this way
(www.celdrantours.blogspot.com)
- Blog site owned by the streetwalker Carlos Celdran. Saw him on a tv show in abs-cbn and I was very much entertained by the way he conducted the museum tour in San Agustin Church. His way of delivering the story behind the historical exhibit makes you fully understand the "how" and "why"....not just knowing the usual "what" info. Checkout his blogsite for the schedule of tours. Will try to catch one of his tours in the near future.

Religion

Know Ur Guardian Angel
(www.viloria.com/viloria/adi/guardian.shtml)
-Want to know your guardian angel? Try this website.

Fun

ipod flea commercial
(too long to write down =p so just click the link)
-IPod craze showcases the smallest ipod ever. If you think ipod nano or the ipod shuffle was the smallest ipod ever, check out the ipod flea!


Will post some other links in the future =).

Unknown Device Identifier

Went to my wife's hometown last week to spend the new year at their house. They had an old AMD-K6 being used by my brother-in-law. The set-up was so slow as it was sporting a Windows ME OS and it had a difficult time loading the OS. Took nearly 30 mins to load the desktop. So I volunteered my services to re-format and downgrade the OS to Win98.

Created a boot diskette and started formatting. I was able to install the Win98 SE completely until I found out that my brother-in-law doesn't have the supporting drivers for the cards. It was a big problem as I was responsible for formatting the PC. I should have checked first if the drivers were available. So off I went scouring for a computer shop that could help me. Fortunately, I was able to find one.

The technician used a software called Unknown Device Identifier. It was able to identify the computer parts model numbers and vendors. And with the help of the internet, the technician was able to download the proper drivers for the PC setup. It was a close call for me, I thought I will be spending thousands of pesos to replace all the cards. =p

Here is the site where you can download the software Unknown Device Identifier, its a freeware!

Once you have identified your device, here is one of the sites where you can download the drivers http://www.driverguide.com/

Happy New Year!!!!

Happy New Year !!!
May 2006 be profitable year for all of us!

Sana lakeh kitah naten ha!

Looking forward for the January Effect! =p

Oi Dod! Google Earth mo nga ako! =p

Nasubukan nyo na ba yun Google Earth na program? Kung ndi pa ito yun link i-download nyo na http://earth.google.com/

Nun nakita ko yun program napa nganga na lang ako.....ang galing! to the detail! Medyo addicting yun software. Imagine....talo pa nya yun Cebu Pacific......lower than the low cost air fare!!! Pede mo pa masabi na nakapag libot ka around the world in 8 minutes!

Yun isa nga ka officemate ko, naaliw din sya. Hinanap nya yun bahay ng tita nya sa states, nun makita nya tinext nya yun tita sya sinabi nya, "uy tita yun kulay ba ng bubong ng bahay nyo eh blue?" . Syempre...gulat yun tita nya har har har!!!

Try mo, pag nasubukan mo maaaliw ka.... naka punta na ako sa CSI LasVegas (huuuu..are u...hu hu hu hu =P) , sa Disneyland, Disneyworld, Holywood!, Japan, atbp! Nakita ko na yun office ni Donald Trump, yun Area 51, yun Airforce Graveyard, yun Washington, Pentagon, Ground Zero! Whitehouse.

Sa pinas medyo malabo yun map, pero sa Angeles, Bulacan at Cavite malinaw yun map. Kita mo yun clark airbase tsaka Sangley point Cavite. Yun iba medyo maaaninag mo lang.

Try mo, sa isang upuan lang mauubos oras mo sa kakaisip ng lugar na pupuntahan!

Tara na! Google Earth tayo! =p

Charting is very subjective

I tried to validate my FPH analysis with the other members of the email group and with their help, they validated that my findings were.... incorrect....hehehehehe =p. But they did open my eyes to the right pattern that they are also seing. So here's the chart courtesy of Joel.

The pattern is a symmetrical triangle from july to november. It already broke out, but it retraced back to the break out level. MAs are providing support.

Why not a coop in the office?

During last Saturday night's Technical Analysis Graduation cum xmas party I was able to chat with one of my batch mates in the training, Sir Gil Garcia. Sir Gil is a professor at UST and he is currently teaching co-op class at UST. Yup you've heard it right co-op as in co-operative, like credit cooperative, consumer coop etc.

According to Sir Gil, UST is the only school in Manila offering such curriculum. I've heard from news report before that cooperatives will be included in high school curriculum. But I think it did not push thru. But definitely teaching of business/finance/co-op classes in HS is a welcome change.

I have had chances before of hearing presentations on the benefits of coops but I've brushed aside invitations to become a member. My main reason for brushing it aside is pure ignorance. My initial impression on coops is that its something for the "rural", but ofcourse, its pure ignorance. Coop is a vehicle for affordable financing much like your Zero percent installment craze of you credit card and it’s a perfect example of Pinoy's Bayanihan.

Though you might not have heard nor have been part of any cooperative, im sure you've been at one time, part of a "Paluwagan" system. A Cooperative is nearly the same, where in members contribute to build up a fund except it is much more complex ofcourse ;) .

On the course of our discussions, I’ve learned that Sir Gil is managing the fund from the UST teachers coop. I got much more curious on how the coop has been beneficial to the teachers. Since the start of their coop's existence, they have already gathered millions in pesos for their pooled funds. Sir Gil patiently answered all of my queries on coop and i must say he has explained it to me with zest. Lets just say that if cooperative was a religion, I would have been enticed to convert faith =p.

That’s when I got the idea of "why not a coop in our office?” Maybe it’s the first IT company based coop (but I think Intel employees already bagged that title). We already have a Socials Committee in our office tasked with creating FUN for the employees, why not create another group...a Coop group tasked with creating FUNDS for the employee =). This is one thing that the company should take a look into. Its not just beneficial to the employee, but also to the company. A Socials Committee and a Coop Group hand in hand can supplement the employees Social and Financial welfare within the company. Its a powerful tool for the company for keeping valuable human resources intact within the company.

My hats off to Sir Gil Garcia for being such an advocate of Coops. For more info visit the CDA website http://www.cda.gov.ph/

I graduated from the El Dorado Technical Training Institute!!!!

I graduated from the El Dorado Technical Training Institute!!!!

Inay! Gradute na ako!!! Hehehehe kala mo naman talagang nag graduate.. =p Last Saturday yun graduation cum xmas party cum batch get together cum batch2 revalida sa Pioneer Centre ng Technical Analysis Training namin (hindi cosmetology training!).

Nag start last October yun training and it went on for 12 Saturday Night sessions. Parang Alcoholics Anonymous nga ang dating ng first session namin... "Hi Im __ and I have been trading since ____. So far i have been loosing ___ percent of my portfolio. My worst trade was when i bought ___ stock. I bought it at __ and then it went down to __."

So far, ang masasabi ko....must attend yun Technical Analysis Training nila Boss Bonner and Danny. Dami ko natutunan. Nun una, bottom picker lang ako eh. Walang diskarte sa pag trade. Buy High Sell Low yun naging trading system ko most of the time. Pero nun maka attend ako ng training nila......buy high sell low parin ako.....hehehehhe joke lang. I may not be gaining much sa trades ko, pero I know when to enter and when to exit. Yun nga lang, it takes practice to perfect your trading system. Its not as Technical as it sounds like, there are still different variables affecting your trade. Isa na dyan yun emotion, its very hard to control greed and at the same time masyado ding nakaka apekto sa emotion mo kung natatalo ka na sa position mo.

Pero definitely, recommendable yun training nila. You'd get to study how they trade. Both Bonner and Danny are seasoned and very accomplished traders, so you know you are getting your money's worth!

For those who would like to try the training, they will be conducting another training on Jan 2006. Number of sessions might not be the same as what we took kasi they are streamlining their curriculum. If interested, just send an email to bonnerdytoc@yahoo.com

Special thanks nga pala to Accord Capital. Sila ang kumupkop samin during the training. If interested, you can check out their website www.accordcapital.ph