In Retrospect: PEP

PEP

PEP’s amazing 1 day move 2 weeks ago did not have much of a momentum as the price just consolidated sideways last week and even closing the gap last Friday. It would be safer to liquidate positions on this stock since it has already touched the cutloss level of 1.24 and price may still continue to trend lower

StockWatch (Jan 07-11, 2008): PSEi, GLO, PEP

PSEi (Chart : Daily Support: 3400/3200 Resistance: 3660)

We’re in a not so good start for the year with the index plunging 140 points lower. Currently the index is trading in a downward range with support at 3400. I’d rather like to see the index trade in a downward range than see it violently breakdown, but of course were not in control of the market. Couple of things worth observing, first, MACD is below centerline and below signal line, both confirming the current bearish sentiment. Second, a bullish divergence seems to have formed, price formed a lower low, while RSI and MACD formed a higher low, but I’m skeptical with this observation because the divergence is not very well defined or noticeable. Third, volume in the index seems to be diminishing. If selling continues with diminishing volume, this might be good, because this means selling pressure is diminishing and the index may have a chance of recovering. However, this ‘chance’ of recovery is not 100% sure, because once selling momentum is started, the index can continue to go lower even with low volume, it can only be stopped with increased buying sentiment. What we can expect for next week is for the index to continue its downward movement considering that DJIA went 200 points lower last Friday, this will definitely have an effect in the local market. Let’s just hope that support at 3400 will endure the selling pressure and hold off any further downward movement.

GLO (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1605/1640 Support: 1475/1445/1405)

GLO is interestingly consolidating in a symmetrical triangle. Still too early for a breakout and anything can still happen. This coming week, this stock will still probably trade lower, so watchout for support at 1475/1445/1405, the previous lows. Watchout also for buying sentiment accompanied by volume of above 100T shares traded. This could indicate a bullish move in the making.

PEP (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.52 Support:1.26)

PEP seems to have moved considerably last Friday with price gapping up 0.02 pts and volume at 14M. The only pattern I could see with the stock is a descending triangle and if you would consider the pole formed, the descending triangle might also be a flag formation. A descending triangle is still similar to a symmetrical triangle and can also unusually break out instead of breaking down, which indicates bullishness for the stock. If you would consider the triangle, target price is at 1.60, if you would consider the flag formation, the target price is at 1.80. If you buy in at 1.34, cutloss would be 1.24.

In Retrospect: LCB, APXB, PEP, JFC

LCB

LCB has proven its bullishness. It was able to move past 0.50 resistance level and continued up to as high as 0.60. MACD also followed as well with the movement of the price. This stock is now over bought and may move down to sideways for the coming week. If we consider the downward channel where it broke out from, the target price is near 0.65. It is possible that a flag/pennant may form for the coming week.

APXB

APXB was not able to move up at par with LCB’s bullishness. Currently the MACD is in the position of forming a bearish divergence, but this is still not final. Any further downward move will definitely seal the bearish divergence. However, looking at the recent trading days, the upward move by this stock has volume, though it may not be as large as the breakout volume, but this is definitely a bullish sign. So I’m more inclined to see the MACD forming a higher high. Considering the downward channel it brokeout from, the target price of the stock is near 8.50.

PEP

PEP went as low as 0.78 and made a large bounce reaching the target price of 1.10 within one day. Watchout for a flag to form. There may still be some play left for this stock considering that there was only 1 day where there was a sell down. But this is left to be proven by next week. If the stock is bought up with volume of around above 10M, there is still momentum for this stock. If the stock is sold down below 0.90 with high volume, then this means the play is over.

JFC

JFC went to as low as 44.50 and went to as high as 50. As of current there is strong resistance at 50. The downward trend for this stock is still intact. Movement for this week may either be up to sideward. There is still resistance at 55. Watch out for the possible formation and break out of an inverted H&S.

StockWatch (Nov 12-16, 2007): PSEi, LCB, APXB, PEP, JFC

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3800 Support: 3650/3620/3520)

The index suffered another plunge last Thursday following after the Dow 200 points plunge. As of last Friday Dow took yet another 200 pts plunge after other financial institutions have also started to announce their losses from the Subprime crisis. This recent plunge will definitely be felt this week in our index. As of current we are seeing a bearish divergence forming with the RSI, however, this is still not confirmed as the trough has not yet formed. The symmetrical triangle I have noted before is still intact after the plunge last Thursday and I expect that this will be broken come Monday. Next support levels are 3650 (23.6% Fib retracement), 3620 (previous low) and 3520 (previous low of the gap up last Sept and at the same time, the 38.2% fib retracement). Aside from the above mentioned support levels, another thing to watch out is the MACD crossing below the center line. If this happens, then we may see further downward movement.

LCB(Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.50 Support: 0.42)

LC and LCB surprisingly gapped up with a big upward spread and were accompanied by large volume. This gap up has broken LC/LCB’s long standing downward trend. However, there is something that is not so good on this breakout, for LCB, the wicker of the candle for the breakout day was larger than the body, while for LC, the price opened and closed on the same level. This means there is still strong resistance along the way up. What may probably be good to know is that even if there is strong resistance along the way, there was a large volume on the breakout which may translate to a very strong support level. For LCB, there is still an upcoming resistance at 0.50 which is the previous high from 2005. A thing to watch out though is the MACD, this stock has now formed a higher high, and the MACD needs to follow. If this does not happen, then this is a warning sign for an upcoming bearish action.

APXB (Chart: Daily Resistance: 7 Support: 6.30)

APX/APXB has a similar situation with LC/LCB. The recent breakout from the longstanding resistance line was accompanied with volume. Price formed a higher high and MACD needs to follow. If MACD is not able to form a higher high, then this might be a bearish indicator. For both APX/APXB and LC/LCB, considering the plunge in Dow last Friday, it is highly likely that these stocks would be sold down and if it does, a bearish divergence may form.

PEP (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.94 /0.98 Support: 0.75/0.72)

This one I think was pointed out in the Absolute Trader’s forum by Yeahbah. PEP brokeout from the inverted head and shoulder formation with a large volume and spread. Target is around 1.10. This is currently doing a return move to re-test the resistance turned support at 0.75. It’s a wait-and-see what will happen by next week considering the recent events in the US market. If price bounces from support, this would be a good time to buy.

JFC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 51 Support: 47)

JFC is a candidate for range trading. Price level at 47 is a support level and may expect a bounce from that level as RSI below 30 is very much oversold right now. Entry at 47, sell at 50, cutloss at 46.50.

In Retrospect: PCP, NI, JFC, GEO

PCP

PCP went to as high as 0.75 before moving down to as low as 0.53. Price movement for this week may either be side to down. Next support is 52/49/45

NI

NI went only as high as 27 and as low as 23. I was wrong on this one, neither a break out nor an upward move happened. Price continued to move downwards. I guess I was wrong at anticipating an MACD cross above the signal line to propel an upward move, which never happened.

JFC

JFC went to as low as 53 for the week. I was wrong again on the upward move, as price went down. Triangle is still intact so this is still a stock to watch.

GEO

Move down last week and somehow invalidated the ascending triangle. Looks like further downward move for this week.

StockWatch (July 16-20) : PCP, NI, JFC, GEO, PEP, WIN

PCP (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.61 Support: 0.45)

PCP gapped up and brokeout from an upward biased channel (probably a weird looking symmetrical triangle) doubling the price in just 1 week. Target price for this pattern is 0.65. But looking at a larger picture below (PCP-Weekly chart), we can see that PCP has formed a rounding bottom with a target price of 1.14. But this rounding bottom may still have a possibility of moving sideways forming a cup and handle. PCP is definitely a buy.

PCP-Weekly Chart

NI (Chart: Daily Resistance: 30/28.50 Support: 22.50/19.75)

NI has formed a symmetrical triangle with a possible MACD cross above signal line. Price may still move higher this week. The current symmetrical has a target price of 44. But this symmetrical triangle may become an ascending triangle if the previous high of 30 will become a strong resistance. Current price of 26 is a buy considering a resistance of 30. It’s a wait-and-see if this week would be a breakout or just an ordinary continuation of the upward move probably up to resistance of 30.

JFC( Chart: Daily Resistance: 57/61 Support: 54/53)

JFC’s symmetrical triangle is still intact (see StockWatch and In Retrospect for Jul2-6). The price went to as low as 54. For the coming week, price movement is side to upward. Target price for the symmetrical triangle is 68.50. At current price of 54, this is considered a buy.

GEO (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.05 Support: 2.70/2.50)

GEO has shown signs of divergence of the RSI and MACD against price. MACD and RSI has formed a lower low while price has formed a higher low. As of current, there is still room for further upward move. The pattern looks like a small ascending triangle, but the volume last July 5 seems to break the diminishing volume characteristic of an ascending triangle. If the ascending triangle is really valid and breaks out, target price will be at 3.70. With consideration of the divergence, it might be good to lighten your position at that level and buy back later.


PEP might move towards 0.98 possibly forming either a symmetrical or ascending triangle with possible MACD crossover

WIN might move toward 0.75 possibly forming either a symmetrical or ascending triangle, with possible MACD crossover