StockWatch (Feb 09-13, 2009): PSEi, MWC, JGS, BPI

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2004/2068/2200 Support: 1818)

The index made an unexpected rally on the last 2 days of trading last week. The index had a white candle with a very small wicker accompanied with large volume. This suggests strength possibly for the short term only. Another remarkable action last week, is that the index is now above the 65 day MA. Judging from the RSI and the stochastics, there is still a little bit room for upward movement before the rally gets capped. Hopefully, the large volume last week could sustain further upward movement this week. The rally was definitely a welcome sight for the index as it prevented the index from forming lower lows.

Watchout for resistance at 2004/2068, these are previous high on the chart, while 2200 is the 130day MA level. It is highly possible that after the rally, there will once again be a short sideward movement before it moves down, which has been the pattern since November 2008. Once the index starts to move sideways again, this would be the best time to cash in on your gains.

There is still no reversal pattern seen in the charts and it looks like the index will continue to move within a range.

MWC(Chart: Daily Resistance: 12.50/12.75 Support: 11.00/9.50)

I was wrong in assuming that this would be a fast trade. As it turned out, it took more than a week before the rally last Jan 23 continued. This got me worried a bit, but the low volume on the days where the stock went down provided some consolation that the selling action is week and that there is still a possibility of a continuation of the rally. From last week’s trade, patience paid off when the stock continued its rally towards 12.50. It seems to be a result of a breakout of a small symmetrical triangle, or if you would consider, a pennant formation with the pole from Jan 23. Both of the pattern’s target price is already reached and it also has touched resistance at 12.50. There may still be room for a little more upward movement as the RSI and stochastics seems to suggest. But I would rather sell for now and observe how the stock would play for the following days. A gap and breakdown with large volume last Jan 16 isn’t easy to ignore. I believe that it would take more than the volume from last week’s rally for the stock to be able to move past the gap, so volume is an important indicator of where the stock would go. If by next week volume doesn’t pick-up, the rally/re-test of previous support-turned-resistance line would fail to move further upward.

JGS (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.00 Support: 1.58)

JGS seems to be forming a rounding bottom. However, there is not much volume towards the other end of the rounding bottom. Rounding bottoms usually have large volumes on both ends of the pattern. It looks like this will encounter resistance anytime soon as RSI is now in the over bought level. Watchout for this stock as it may form another rounding bottom and possibly result in a double bottom formation. But this would take another 3-4 months before this gets fully realized

BPI (Chart: Daily Resistance: 38 Support: 33.50)

BPI had some promising move last week. Trading last Friday closed the gap that was formed last Jan 29 with volume and also forming a gap-up. This gap up gave way to the formation of an island reversal from the recent downward movement since the start of 2009. However, there is an upcoming resistance at 38, which is the 65 day MA, so volume needs to pickup for next week for it to be able to sucessfully move past the resistance.

Also, there is another promising pattern forming for BPI. Looking at the weekly chart(see inset picture), it seems that the stock has touched support from previous low last Jul 2008, which is a possible double bottom formation. Volume last week was relatively large compared to the successive white candles last Jul 2008 from the weekly chart, which suggests a very good support. Ofcourse it is too early for a break-out, but the opportunity of taking advantage of the formation of the upward leg of the possible double bottom is very enticing, so it is best to exercise caution if you intend to ride the leg. If you got in at 36.50 and volume thins out at 38.00, then it would be best to get out of the stock.

StockWatch (Jan 26-30, 2009): PSEi, MWC

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1910/2000 Support:1830)

Just as things are looking good for the index, a series of unfortunte things happened. First, the index is still unable to move past the 65 day MA, second, a breakdown from the current support line occurred and lastly, this breakdown paved the way for the index to form a lower low. This is the second time that the break from the support line happened. The first is the break of support last Dec 22, 2008, but the index was able to recover the following week which is why I’ve redrawn my support line. From the looks of the index on the last 3 trading days for the past week, there maybe a correction that would happen for the coming week. Volume on the last 2 days were almost the same as the day the support line was broken, and the index was able to stay above the recently formed previous low. The RSI, currently near oversold and the stochastics seem to point to the possibility of a correction or a short rally.

However, the MACD is now below the signal line and below the centerline, a double whammy if I may consider, which is not a good thing to see. If a rally pushes through next week, this would be a good time to exit the market for a while.

Observe the following for the weeks to come: The 65 day MA seems to be a very strong resistance as of the moment. If the index would re-test the 65 day MA without sufficient volume, it may just be deflected again downwards, watchout for the formation a lower low. If the re-test is accompanied with good volume, then I believe it would be safe to get in the market again.


MWC(Chart: Daily Resistance: 12.50 Support:9.30)

For those who are fast on the trigger, MWC is presenting an opportunity to make profit for the short term. After breaking down from the symmetrical triangle, the stock was able to find a new support and correct from the lows. I think the correction is phenomenal as it had almost the same volume as the breakdown volume and a lengthy white candle. This is definitely showing strength, but probably only for the short term. The opportunity being presented here, for those who are fast on the trigger, would be the retest of the support-turned-resistance line at 12.50. You have to be fast on this one as the volume last Friday suggests that the return trip to the resistance line would be fast. If you are unable to get the stock at P10.50 – P11.00, it would be best to just observe. Sell near resistance of 12.50 if you were able to get the stock.

StockWatch (Jan 19-23, 2009): PSEi, MWC, WEB

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2000 Support: 1910)

The index closed lower for last week with the 65 day MA preventing the index from moving further upward. Looks like we have to redraw the symmetrical triangle that was seen previously with new support and resistance lines. At this point it is possible that the symmetrical triangle we’ve redrawn may turn into an ascending triangle, either way, both can have a possible target of 2400. The volume (not considering the dates where there were unusually high volume) currently diminishing, coupled with the formation of higher lows, suggests that supply is dwindling and that buyers are willing to buy at a higher price. I am hoping that this action be sustained for the coming weeks to pave the way for a breakout.

For the coming week, there may still be futher selling as suggested by the stochastics. There is still no clear reversal sign.


MWC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 12.25 Support: 10.00/8.00)

Looks like a breakdown of the symmetrical triangle for MWC with very large volume. This is one stock to avoid for now. Downward target price is at 8.00. At this point, the stock is currently oversold, expect a pull back to re-test the support-turned-resistance at 12.25 for the coming week.

WEB (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.031/0.035/0.037 Support: 0.030)

WEB brokeout of a possible small ascending triangle with large volume and a lengthy white candle. Target price is at 0.038. There are a couple of hindrance to the target price, first is the 65 day MA at 0.031, then the 130 day MA at 0.035 and lastly the 260 day MA at 0.037. Price at current (0.031) is a very ideal price to get in the stock. Cutloss when it dips back to 0.030.

StockWatch (Dec 17-21, 2007): PSEi, SMC, MWC, SMPH

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3630 Support: 3500/3450)

After a great upward move breaking the resistance line, the index was unable to hold its position above the resistance line and fell below the line. The gains that was made the previous week was wiped out last week. The bearish move by the index was a surprise for me as I was very much expecting that the index would probably move sideways and consolidate further before moving upward considering the bullish signs that is has manifested. Looks like the general expectation that the index will reach 4000 level before the year end will not happen. We only have this week to consider as a normal trading week as the trading action on the last week of the year will probably be lethargic as some may be on holiday mode already. So it will be impossible for the index to rally 500 points in just 1 week. The index may still reach the 3520 level next week before moving either sideways or upward in between 3600-3700

SMC(Chart: Daily Resistance: 60.50/62 Support: 58/55)

SMC and SMCB had a very bullish move last week breaking several resistance lines with large volume. The stock went as high as 60.50 and may still continue to move probably reaching up to 62. However, looking at the 3 consecutive trading days where it made a wild run upwards, it has formed a “Three advancing white soldier” candle stick pattern, with the third candle stick showing signs of weakness as the body of the candle stick is smaller relative to the first and second candle sticks. I believe that the recent upward move is already a sufficient gain for those who have this stock, so it would be best to start cashing in on those gains. The stock is still bullish, so we can just buy back at later time, probably with in the level of 50-55. Don’t forget the ex-div date on Dec 18, if you get too complacent with the recent bullishness of the stock, you just might find yourself loosing some gains come ex-div date.

MWC( Chart: Daily Resistance: 18.50 Support: 17)

MWC is showing signs of divergence of MACD movement against price. Price has formed a higher high, while MACD seems to be having a hard time to establish a higher high. Price as seen on past movement, after a run up, the price action goes on sideways, so expect that price may move sideways with support at 17. Watch out if price moves below 17 with volume. If it does, we may see price to move towards 13.

SMPH (Chart: Daily Resistance: 10.75 Support: 10/9.30)

SMPH broke down from a support line of around 10.50 and with large volume. As of current the area pattern seems to be a head and shoulder or a symmetrical triangle. Either way, its downward target price is around 6.00. However, RSI is currently oversold, so there is a chance that a bounce may happen and hopefully that bounce would have volume that may counter the effects of the breakdown. If that bounce is able to counter the breakdown, then that is a very bullish action and may be considered as a failed head and shoulder. Assuming this becomes a failed head and shoulder, a good volume to support the action would be around 30M shares. Otherwise it’s just a futile attempt by the bulls to re-instate the price above the resistance line.

In Retrospect : MWC, MB, IMP

MWC

MWC continued to trade at support level of 8.90. The 65 day MA and the 130 day MA are starting to converge. There may be a possibility of the stock to move up this week, but the MA’s might prevent the price to move above 9.30. Still avoid this stock, any upward movement may just be a short bounce. If the upward movement breaks resistance at 9.50, this maybe a good sign that the impending descending triangle is invalidated.

MB

Still waiting for passengers to board the long haul flight.

IMP

Symmetrical triangle area pattern for IMP is still intact, but illiquid.

StockWatch (Mar 12-16, 2007): MWC, MB, IMP

MWC(Chart: Daily Resistance: 9.80 Support: 8.90)

MWC is dangerously forming a descending triangle. Recommendation: Avoid for now.

MB (Chart: Weekly Resistance: 1.14/1.24 Support: 1.0)

MB caught my attention because of the divergence between the price movement and the MACD movement. Looks like the bearish sentiment for this stock is slowly being replaced by bullishness. This stock is for those who are comfortable with long haul flight.

IMP (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.021 Support: 0.019)

IMP seems to be forming a symmetrical triangle. Possible upside of up to 0.029. Recommendation: Buy at 0.019. Sell if it goes below 0.019

In Retrospect : URC, MWC, TEL, PCOR

URC
URC broke the support at 18.50 and went to as low as 18 before closing at 18.25. Recommendation: Observe, price may either move sideways or down.

MWC
Broke out of a falling wedge, but it still needs to break out from the 65 day MA at 9.40. Target price is at 11. Recommendation: Buy, but be on the look out for the resistance at 9.40

TEL
TEL challenged the support at 2610 and went as low as 2570. Price may still go to as low as the next support at 2550. But price may bounce up from support within the week.
Recommendation: Buy near 2550, sell if it goes below support

PCOR
PCOR went to as high as 4.70 with very high volume. If this is a continuation of the break out last Jan 17, then the 4.70 target price has been reached.

StockWatch (Jan 29 – Feb 2, 2007): URC, MWC, TEL, PCOR

URC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 19/19.50 Support: 18.50)

URC could either be a descending triangle or a symmetrical triangle. If it is a symmetrical triangle, it needs to takeout the 3 MA’s before breaking out. Recommendation: Buy near support. If price goes below support, sell

MWC ( Chart: Daily Resistance: 9.00/9.50 Support: 8.80/8.60)

MWC seems to be forming a falling wedge. At current, it is still too early to tell as price may still bounce at 8.80 and may distort the falling wedge formation. Recommendation: Wait and observe, check if support will hold. If support holds and is accompanied by volume of around 10M and above, buy.


TEL ( Chart: Daily Resistance: 2720 Support: 2600/2550)

TEL gapped down with little volume, which might be a good indicator that there are still a lot of traders holding on to the stock. At this point price may still move down or sideways, probably testing support at 2600. What is promising about TEL is that is has now broken its sideways movement and the trading last week has had the price moving above the resistance of 2610 with price going above 2800. This may be a start of an upward channel. Recommendation: The stock is a candidate for range trading. Buy near support and sell at 2800 and beyond. If it goes below 2550, sell.

PCOR ( Chart Daily Resistance: 4.20/4.35 Support: 4.10)

PCOR broke out of a small channel last Jan 17 and was accompanied by 20M volume. I personally thought that the breakout would somehow be able to sustain the momentum and break the resistance that formed since August. But to my dismay, the price went down and went back inside the channel. But analyzing the volume on the downward movement, there was far less volume on the downward move, which is good sign that a lot are still holding on to the stock. Add the increase in volume in the recent trading, which could indicate that there is accumulation going on at 4.10-4.20 level. A break above 4.20 is imminent this week if the volume still picks up. Recommendation: Buy at 4.10-4.20. Sell if price goes below 4.10.

InRetrospect:MIC, MERB, GLO, MWC

MIC

Though the pennant formation was still intact on the first day of trading, the proper break out did not happen on the second day of trading as the volume was not sufficient. The price movement for the remaining days was still accompanied with volume, but there seems to be a standoff between the bulls and the bears as the opening and closing price were near or the same.

MERB

The ascending triangle was invalidated as the price broke the ascending triangle with insufficient volume. Price might move down to sidewards this week as the stock is already very much overbought and last Friday’s volume might be a sign that a lot of traders are starting to cash in on the profit.

GLO

The bulls were able to avert the gap down that happened previously. Price went sidewards, then gapped up. For this week, there is still room for price to move upwards, but it first has to surpass resistance at 1280

MWC

8.80 proved to be a strong support as price bounced off from this level. Currently 9.50 is the immediate resistance. Though price is now moving upward, we still need to see an increase in volume in order for the price to continue moving upward.

StockWatch (Jan 15-19, 2007): MIC, MERB, GLO, MWC

MIC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2 Support: 1.85)

MIC is showing signs of Flag/Pennant formation. The pole was formed for 2 days and last Friday’s trading has started the pull back to form either a flag or pennant. This week, price may move side to downward. Recommendation: Wait for another day to see if formation is still intact. If formation is still valid, buy near support at 1.85.

MERB( Chart: Daily Resistance: 59.50 Support: 55)

MERB is forming an ascending triangle with resistance at 59.50. A possible upside of P8 can be realized if the ascending triangle is broken with volume. At this point it might still be too early for the price to break out of the triangle. Price may still consolidate within the triangle. Recommendation: We may see an upward movement this week and you might be buying near resistance if you buy early. Wait for price to pull back from the resistance level before buying (probably near 55-57 level)


GLO (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1210 Support: 1180/1160)

Price gapped down during the last two trading days and went as low as 1180. It is currently evident that bears rule movement of this stock. There is a possibility of a short upward or sideward movement. If bears still continue to push the price below 1180, next support is at 1160. Recommendation: Wait and observe, price may still go down to 1160 and below as MACD is opening downward and support level since June was broken.

MWC( Chart: Daily Resistance: 9 Support: 8.80/8.50)

MWC also broke the support line extending from June and is currently way below it. Recommendation: Wait and observe. MACD currently shows a negative outlook for this stock, but the RSI is near oversold level and note also that volume is diminishing which might be indication that sellers are getting thin. We may see either down or sideward movement. If support at 8.80 is broken, next support is at 8.50.

StockWatch (Jun 29-30, 2006) SMPH, MWC

SMPH (Chart:Daily ** Resistance: 7.40 ** Support: 6.90)

MACD has already generated a buy signal. What I am currently seeing is a small ascending triangle with resistance at 7.40. If a proper breakout happens at 7.50 we can see a target of 8.0, but the MA’s are currently blocking the target. If the breakout does not happen and the price moves further downward, we may expect a support of 6.90 and price movement to be sideways.


MWC (Chart: Daily ** Resistance: 7.20 ** Support: 6.90)

MWC is forming a symmetrical triangle with support at 6.90. I am expecting a breakout at 7.30 with a target of 8.0. So far, all indicators are in favor of an upward price movement: all 3 MA’s are below the current price, MACD has generated a buy signal and is currently above the 0 line. Hopefully, the support holds and we might be able to see the breakout.

Inretrospect (Mar 19-24 2006) JGS, SMPH, MWC

JGS
Whoa!!! And the ball is out of this field!!! This stock turned mad bull and charged its way up unceasingly. In my last week’s analysis, the target price that I set was at 6.10, and last Friday it did reach our target price. Lucky are those who were able to ride the bull. Mang libre naman kayo! =p. You’d ask when would the upward movement end? Well ofcourse no one knows! Just practice your discipline and get out of that stock, coz it has already reached its target price. It may still kick up some fluctuations by Monday, but I wouldn’t bet a 100% on that as RSI is nearing oversold level. The stock is good for long hold, but ofcourse being a tsupitero, it is best to sell now, then buy later at a lower price when the price of the stock pulls back, then hold it if your really going for long.

SMPH
In my analysis last week, I’ve said that this week would be SMPH’s week, but I guess I was expecting a lot from this stock. I was expecting it to fly, but it did not, what happened was there was a lot of accumulation at 7.90. and it has for the whole week, tried to cross below the 65 day MA. MACD is now positioning itself to cross down, and its weekly and monthly MACD does not confirm a bullish trend that I was expecting. Looks like 8.0 has proven itself to be a strong resistance while 7.90 looks also like a strong support. Will it go down? Im not sure, but if next week is still characterized by accumulation at 7.90 level, we may still have a chance of breaking the 8.0 –8.10 level. If the support at 7.80 – 7.90 does not hold, we could expect price move down to 7.60

MWC
Nothing new here, as from my previous analysis, I was expecting accumulation at 6.40 and there was accumulation at that level. The only thing new was the 130-day MA catching up with the 6.40 support. MACD has now crossed below signal line, sign of things to come? My bet is that it would still be able to maintain the 6.40 support