StockWatch (Mar 14-18, 2011): PSEi, GEO

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3980 Support: 3700)

The index continued its upward movement last week but stopped short of moving beyond the resistance line near 3970, which is also the 65 day MA line.

The upward movement was accompanied with large value turn over, but it was not able to sustain its upward movement and created a black candle last Friday.

Though the value turn over last Friday was relatively low, it is still a little bit worrying as the black candle formed is a hammer. A Hammer usually seen on the upward movement may mean a toppish situation. Hammer found on the top is a reversal sign; this however needs to be confirmed by further downward trading next week.

But even if we do not wait for confirmation of the hammer, there are some other indicators telling us of a bearish situation. First is the MACD, which has currently reached the center line or zero line. When an MACD coming from the negative starts to move upwards, the center line usually acts as a resistance and is not easily breached. Second is the RSI, which is also displaying bearish signal as it is near the 70 oversold level. Last is the stochastic momentum index (top chart), which has crossed below the moving average line.

With the recent disaster in Japan, this would definitely be a factor in next week’s trading activity and add to the bearish activity. Up until when would the downward movement continue is anybody’s guess? Next level of support is at 3700, hopefully that would hold.

GEO (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.65 Support: 0.57/0.53)

GEO seems to have broken out of a falling wedge with a large spread and volume last Friday. However, GEO has a history of creating bull traps. Almost all of the previous white candle with large volume and spread always falls back to previous levels creating a bull trap. So for this recent bullish activity, exercise caution as this may be another bull trap, considering that the index maybe on its way down next week.

In Retrospect: TA, SMCB, GEO, PX, MEG

TA

Target price for TA is reached and has gone beyond up to 2.30 establishing a new high. There is profit taking as of the moment, but price may still move up once profit taking is over. Profit taking may push the price down to 1.80 level, the 38.2% fib retracement.

SMCB

SMCB moved lower and formed a double bottom at 59.50. It invalidated the earlier triangle that I saw. It seems now that 59.50 is a strong support now. Resistance is still at 66 and the bullish divergence is still intact. The double bottom I think is another confirmation that the downward trend is reversing. We have to look at the upcoming resistance at 66, if it is a strong resistance and produces a lower high for the price and a higher high for the MACD and RSI, this is another confirmation of the trend reversal.

GEO

GEO was one of the stocks that was definitely affected by the Glorietta 2 blast creating a gap down on the first trading day after the blast. It has now covered the gap made. This rally would be a good time to sell as there is still no clear bullish indication to contradict the bearish divergence that was seen last week. Price may still move to as high as 2.90 or beyond, however watch for MACD and RSI forming a lower high.

PX

PX formed a higher high for the price, but the RSI and MACD has yet to register a higher high. RSI’s bearish divergence is still intact and now we watch for the MACD if it would follow to exhibit a bearish divergence.

MEG

Bearish divergence on the RSI is still intact. It’s still a wait and see if other indicators will confirm the bearish divergence.

StockWatch (Oct 22-26, 2007): PSEi, TA, SMCB, GEO, PX, MEG

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3835/3863/3896 Support: 3750/3600)

Cautious trading may prevail next week as a reaction to the Glorietta 2 bombing. I think that those spooked by the tragic terroristic act will sell immediately on Monday. However, even if the bombing did not happen, our market is really on its way down for the short term. As seen in the chart, after breaking the previous high, the index was not able to sustain its position above the support line. It eventually moved below the support line and even lower. As of current, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, triggering a sell for the short term. A good picture though that is currently forming in the chart is a falling wedge. Given the recent bullishness from the index’s lowest last August, to its highest this October, it is highly likely that current downward move we are experiencing is a prelude to the formation of the falling wedge. A falling wedge indicates short term bearishness and once it breaks above the resistance line, further bullish sentiment is expected. The target level of the falling wedge is around 3900.

TA (Chart: Daily Resistance: 1.52 Support:1.34 )

TA gapped up on Friday with a large volume. Conservative target price of the breakout is at 1.80.

SMCB( Chart: Daily Resistance: 66 Support: 61)

SMCB is exhibiting a bullish divergence. Both MACD and RSI registered a higher high, but the price registered lower highs. Also, it seems that it is forming a symmetrical triangle as of current with 61 as support and 66 as resistance/break out level. The target price for the symmetrical triangle is at 74. This stock may encounter further resistance from the 3 MA’s at the levels of 69-72.

GEO(Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.90 Support: 2.48)

GEO is exhibiting signs of bearish divergence. Both RSI and MACD registered a lower high, but the price still registered a higher high. Sell.

PX (Chart:Daily Resistance: 9.70 Support: 9.50/8.90)

PX is also exhibiting bearish divergence of RSI against price. Price formed a higher high, but RSI formed lower high. Sell.

MEG (Chart: Daily Resistance: 4.60 Support: 4.25/3.85)

MEG will probably exhibit a bearish divergence between RSI and Price. As of current, the peak of the RSI is not yet formed, but considering the price has already gone higher, RSI still has not registered a higher high. We are just waiting for confirmation of the RSI peak forming a lower high. It would be best to sell on rally.

In Retrospect: GEO

GEO

GEO price movement fell back inside the small ascending triangle but was able to move above the resistance of 1.64 on the succeeding days. This move back in the triangle has somehow tainted the formation’s bullish expectations. The price currently stopped near 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The volume is increasing on the past trading days, but the price movement still has the 130day MA approaching as resistance. If the volume continues to increase on the coming week, there maybe a chance that the target price may be reached.

StockWatch (Sept 10-14, 2007): PSEi, Mining, GEO

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3380 Support: 3260)

Last week at the Absolute Traders CAF session, Chairman Fitz Aclan also noticed the inverted H&S forming in the index. With the first 2 trading days down movement of the market I was already thinking if this is the start of the right shoulder’s formation. In my analysis from the gaps formed, I was expecting that the right shoulder should start its formation when it reaches near 3460 level. It is only now when I saw the index’s chart that I came to verify that the recent activity in the market was just a sideways movement. So this definitely is not yet the right shoulder’s start of formation. This is now the critical part of the movement, the recent week’s sideways movement can mean any thing. If traders are still bullish on the market, the sideways movement is just a healthy pause for a further upward move. If traders have started to get bearish once again, the sideways move may be an exhaustion of the buying activity and we may see the index move down. Things to watch out for this week is the 130 day MA acting as resistance at 3380 and the gap formed between 3210 and 3260. A move above the resistance line means there is a good chance for price to move up to the 35 day MA at 3500 for now. A move to close the gap means were in for another bearish ride

Mining Index (Chart: Daily Resistance: 6270 Support: 6030/5900)

The mining index caught my attention because of the gap, the great spread and high volume last Friday. This led me to look thoroughly at this index as to what area pattern it broke out from. But, as I tried to turn the image upside down, flip it left to right, I was not able to see any area pattern from where it broke out. But on further analysis of the gaps formed, rather than being a bullish indicator, the gap with big spread and high volume was rather a bearish warning. Index has already formed a break away gap, runaway gap and now, the recent gap formed was the exhaustion gap. Considering the runaway gap as a halfway point to the top, coupled with the exhaustion gap, this means the current index level is already near the top. The current index level is also being blocked by the 35 day MA. Things to look out for this week are the resistance level of 6270 which is also the 35 day MA, support level at 6030 which is the 130 day MA and the RSI reaching the oversold level. The gap, big spread and high volume may still attract buyers, and possibly contribute to a short upward move before moving sideways

GEO (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.00/2.04 Support: 1.64/1.52)

GEO seems to have formed a small ascending triangle and broke above resistance at 1.64. The target price for the small triangle is 2.20. Along its way up it may encounter resistance at 2.0 the psychological resistance and 2.04 the 10day Simple Moving Average. Best price to get in on this stock is below 1.76. Cutloss is at 1.62. Recommended selling price is at 2.18. The breakout volume is good; however this may still be affected by general market sentiment and also in particular the mining index, so keep watch of the movement this week.

In Retrospect: PCP, NI, JFC, GEO

PCP

PCP went to as high as 0.75 before moving down to as low as 0.53. Price movement for this week may either be side to down. Next support is 52/49/45

NI

NI went only as high as 27 and as low as 23. I was wrong on this one, neither a break out nor an upward move happened. Price continued to move downwards. I guess I was wrong at anticipating an MACD cross above the signal line to propel an upward move, which never happened.

JFC

JFC went to as low as 53 for the week. I was wrong again on the upward move, as price went down. Triangle is still intact so this is still a stock to watch.

GEO

Move down last week and somehow invalidated the ascending triangle. Looks like further downward move for this week.

StockWatch (July 16-20) : PCP, NI, JFC, GEO, PEP, WIN

PCP (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.61 Support: 0.45)

PCP gapped up and brokeout from an upward biased channel (probably a weird looking symmetrical triangle) doubling the price in just 1 week. Target price for this pattern is 0.65. But looking at a larger picture below (PCP-Weekly chart), we can see that PCP has formed a rounding bottom with a target price of 1.14. But this rounding bottom may still have a possibility of moving sideways forming a cup and handle. PCP is definitely a buy.

PCP-Weekly Chart

NI (Chart: Daily Resistance: 30/28.50 Support: 22.50/19.75)

NI has formed a symmetrical triangle with a possible MACD cross above signal line. Price may still move higher this week. The current symmetrical has a target price of 44. But this symmetrical triangle may become an ascending triangle if the previous high of 30 will become a strong resistance. Current price of 26 is a buy considering a resistance of 30. It’s a wait-and-see if this week would be a breakout or just an ordinary continuation of the upward move probably up to resistance of 30.

JFC( Chart: Daily Resistance: 57/61 Support: 54/53)

JFC’s symmetrical triangle is still intact (see StockWatch and In Retrospect for Jul2-6). The price went to as low as 54. For the coming week, price movement is side to upward. Target price for the symmetrical triangle is 68.50. At current price of 54, this is considered a buy.

GEO (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.05 Support: 2.70/2.50)

GEO has shown signs of divergence of the RSI and MACD against price. MACD and RSI has formed a lower low while price has formed a higher low. As of current, there is still room for further upward move. The pattern looks like a small ascending triangle, but the volume last July 5 seems to break the diminishing volume characteristic of an ascending triangle. If the ascending triangle is really valid and breaks out, target price will be at 3.70. With consideration of the divergence, it might be good to lighten your position at that level and buy back later.


PEP might move towards 0.98 possibly forming either a symmetrical or ascending triangle with possible MACD crossover

WIN might move toward 0.75 possibly forming either a symmetrical or ascending triangle, with possible MACD crossover

In Retrospect: TBGI, MIC, GEO

TBGI broke the 2.50 resistance but was only able to move up to 2.55 before moving downwards. The price was blocked by the 130 day MA and moved to as low as 2.30. The symmetrical triangle is still intact and the MACD has now crossed above the zero line. Price action may move side to down this week probably a chance to get the stock near support level of 2.14. Recommendation: Watch out for support at 2.26 (65 day MA)/2.14 (trend line), these are levels where it would be good to buy. Cut loss if it goes below 2.10

MIC consolidated on the first 3 days of trading with 3.15 as resistance and move higher on the fourth day up to 3.60. The last day exhibited profit taking as the price went from 3.60 down to 3.30 closing at 3.40. Next resistance is at 3.80. There was no follow through with the volume after the breakout. RSI is currently overbought, so expect for the stock to move side to down. Recommendation: Sell a part of the position and buy back at a later time if the price moves down. MACD still looks good, so if RSI goes down from being overbought with price still moving sideways instead of down, start buying back. The next resistance at 3.80 is the target price for the Feb-April ascending triangle.


GEO went further down to as low as 1.76.

StockWatch ( April 23-27, 2007): TBGI, MIC, GEO

TBGI (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.50/2.90/3.35 Support: 2.24/2.14)

TBGI broke out from a sidewards movement with very high volume. If the upward movement would still continue, it may break out from a symmetrical triangle with resistance at 2.50. The target price for the symmetrical triangle is 4.15. Recommendation: Buy on breakout. Expect resistance at 2.90 and 3.35 level. If you buy at 2.60, cut loss is at 2.40.

MIC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.15/3.40 Support: 2.60/2.44/2.30)

MIC has broken out of the long symmetrical triangle. Conservative target price is at 4.90/5.0. Next resistance is at 3.15 and 3.40, which are previous highs. Recommendation: Buy. Succeeding trading days should have the same or higher volume; otherwise it may find it hard to break the coming resistance levels. If upon reaching near resistance level, price movement shows weakness, sell a portion a buy back at a lower level.

GEO (Chart: Daily Resistance: 2.14 Support: 1.90)

GEO is displaying a divergence of MACD from the price movement. MACD displayed lower high, while price displayed a higher high. The recent break above 2.0 with less volume seems to indicate that not a lot are interested with the stock at that price level. Recommendation: Sell.