StockWatch (May 12-16, 2008): PSEi, ASIA

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3050 Support: 2710/2670)

The index had a good 2 day rally last week. Volume for the last 2 days of trading was significant and it looks like it may continue for the coming week. The trough for the price and indicators is already visible and we are seeing a positive divergence on the MACD, RSI and Price. It is again good to note that the MACD never went lower and is currently oscillating near the zero line. Also the MACD is about to cross the signal line, so we can probably see more buying action next week. Still no sign of a reversal area pattern, so it’s still generally a downward trending index for now.


ASIA (Chart: Daily Resistance: 10 Support: 7.20/6.00)

ASIA is now out of a downward trend since Feb 2007 as it broke out from the resistance line and also a falling wedge area pattern. The target price for the area pattern breakout is around 16.00. The last 3 days of buying action was accompanied with a very significant volume. The only resistance on its way up is the 260 day MA at 10.00. Also looking at a larger picture, this stock seems to be forming a cup and handle formation. Watchout though for some profit taking action this coming week as RSI is very much overbought. MACD is looking good as it now crossed above the center line. You could probably buy the dips, but watch out if the price heads back to the breakout level at 7.20

In Retrospect: ASIA, JFC, SMC

ASIA

ASIA went to as low as 11.50 one of its support level. The symmetrical triangle support line needs to be redrawn a little bit. In my opinion, a strong support level at 11.75 was established last week. Movement for this week could be sideways or up. Price action is very near the apex, so this is still a stock to watch. Buy only on break out.

JFC

Good thing with JFC is that the support line was very much respected on the trading days last week. It went up to as high as the resistance level of 56. MACD has crossed over the signal line which is very good. Another good indicator is a divergence of MACD and price last week. Any of these things could happen next week: a) Sell down to the 65 day MA support of around 54 possibly because of those who would want to cash in already. b.) RSI to move down near 50, or c.) A break out! A satisfactory breakout volume should be above 2M shares. Target price is 67.

SMC

Nothing significant happened, except that the stock moved sideways, forming an ascending triangle. However, the volume does not seem to confirm the formation. Though the rounding bottom is still intact. Still a stock to watch.

StockWatch (July 2-6) : ASIA, JFC, SMC

ASIA( Chart: Daily Resistance: 13.00/13.50 Support: 11.75/11.50)

ASIA is forming a symmetrical triangle with a target price of 23. Currently, price is near support line from Feb, which is a good buy level. Symmetrical triangle is near the apex, so breakout (or down) should happen anytime soon. Otherwise we have to redraw our support and resistance line. Aside from the symmetrical triangle, on a bigger picture, the charts is showing signs of a rounding bottom or cup and handle formation, however this formation is not yet ripe for the picking.

JFC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 56 Support: 52.50/ 49.50)

JFC is forming a symmetrical triangle with target price of 67. Price is currently near the support line from May, so this is currently a good buy level.

SMC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 76.50/80 Support: 72)

SMC is forming a small rounding bottom with resistance at 80. As of now anything could still happen, the rounding bottom formation might be replaced with a symmetrical triangle or ascending triangle depending on the outcome of the trading next week. Buy only on breakout.

In Retrospect: EPHI, URC, ASIA,ATI

EPHI

Retraced back to 2.75. Possibility of a flag or pennant formation is now impossible as price may still move downwards for this week. There may be support at 2.60 level.

URC

I was wrong with the observation about the divergence. Based from what was taught in the advanced TA class, a shorter time period makes the divergence more credible. The divergence I pointed out was from Feb to May which somehow lessens the credibility of the divergence. When I looked at the shorter period in between Apr and May, there was no indication of divergence as the MACD moved together with the price both creating a lower low. Still looking for a sign of reversal, as of now support is at 15.75. A break lower than that could mean a continuation of the down trend.

ASIA

The support line needs to be redrawn as the price move sideways hitting the support line of the triangle. The symmetrical triangle is still intact. As of current the lowest price is at 12.00, but it could still move down to 11.50 for this week. At 11.50, this could be a good buy at that level assuming RSI still moves further near the 40 level and MACD does not cross below the zero line.

ATI
Price did moved further to 6.20, but the flag or pennant anticipated is already invalidated. After moving down to 6.20, price moved sideways invalidating the formation.

In Retrospect: EPHI, URC, ASIA,ATI

EPHI

Retraced back to 2.75. Possibility of a flag or pennant formation is now impossible as price may still move downwards for this week. There may be support at 2.60 level.

URC

I was wrong with the observation about the divergence. Based from what was taught in the advanced TA class, a shorter time period makes the divergence more credible. The divergence I pointed out was from Feb to May which somehow lessens the credibility of the divergence. When I looked at the shorter period in between Apr and May, there was no indication of divergence as the MACD moved together with the price both creating a lower low. Still looking for a sign of reversal, as of now support is at 15.75. A break lower than that could mean a continuation of the down trend.

ASIA

The support line needs to be redrawn as the price move sideways hitting the support line of the triangle. The symmetrical triangle is still intact. As of current the lowest price is at 12.00, but it could still move down to 11.50 for this week. At 11.50, this could be a good buy at that level assuming RSI still moves further near the 40 level and MACD does not cross below the zero line.

ATI
Price did moved further to 6.20, but the flag or pennant anticipated is already invalidated. After moving down to 6.20, price moved sideways invalidating the formation.

StockWatch (May 07- 11) : EPHI, URC, ASIA,ATI

EPHI (Chart: Daily Resistance: 3.10 Support: 2.40)

Possible return move for this week. Watch out for retracement near to 2.60. This is also a possible candidate for a flag formation.

URC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 16.75 Support: 15.75)

No chart pattern for URC except for the RSI reaching oversold level. We need to watch also the divergence of the MACD against price movement. If a higher low has been recorded in the MACD and price still moves lower, this may be a good sign of a reversal from its current down trend.

ASIA (Chart: Daily Resistance: 13.50 Support: 12.25)

ASIA is forming a symmetrical triangle, with a very promising target of above 23. The chart is very promising as MACD is consolidating above the zero line which is an indicator or bullishness. Recommendation: Buy only on break out. If the price moves further downwards, it may still go to as low as 11.

ATI (Chart: Daily Resistance: 6.80 Support: 6.30/ 5.60)

ATI may be forming a pennant or flag formation. Watch out for further downward move towards 6.20 level.

In Retrospect : ASIA, COL, APC, UPM

ASIA

ASIA went up for another day before the sell down. The possibility of a flag or pennant formation fizzled out .

COL

COL seem to have successfully broken the pennant formation and has reached the target price at 7.5.

APC

APC retested support and seems to be on a sideward movement for the moment. Might have established support at 0.41. If price moves below 0.41, sell.

UPM

The possible symmetrical triangle was invalidated as price went to as low as 0.68. Price formation transformed to either a downward channel or a slender symmetrical triangle.

StockWatch (Feb 19-23): ASIA, COL, APC, UPM

ASIA (Chart: Daily Resistance: 13 Support: 10.25)

ASIA maybe forming a flag or a pennant. The pole is already formed; we just have to wait for the flag or pennant. Recommendation: Wait for 3 days to see if a flag or pennant forms

COL (Chart: Daily Resistance:6.2 Support: 5.6 )

COL may be forming a flag or pennant also. The pole has been formed and we just have to wait for the formation of the flag or pennant. Recommendation: Wait for 3 days to see if a flag or pennant is formed

APC (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.47 Support: 0.40)

APC seem to have broken from a symmetrical triangle in the last minute. A possible upside of 0.58. Recommendation: Buy near support. Price may re-test support before moving upwards again.

UPM (Chart: Daily Resistance: 0.80 Support: 0.72)

UPM still has its symmetrical triangle intact. Possible upside of P1.00. Recommendation: Wait for the break out. At this point the price should bounce up. If not, this means a prolonged symmetrical triangle. This is also a candidate for range trading. Buy at support, sell at resistance. If price move further down, sell at 0.70