StockWatch (Jun 20-24, 2011): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 4200/4340 Support: 4080/3950)

The index has now breached the support line from April 2011 as well as the 65 day Moving Average. The index is currently retesting the support-turned-resistance line and based from the candle sticks formed, the bears are winning the battle. Specially last Friday, the bulls tried to move the index higher, but were unable to do so and the bears event went further with their victory, reclaiming the advances made by the white candle last Wed.

The breaking of the channel has a downward target level of around 4000. But prior to reaching that level, there is support at 4080 level which is the 130 day moving average.

MACD on the daily chart is now below the center line and MACD on the weekly chart has now touched the signal line and is about to cross below.

If the bearish sentiment starts to steam roll the bulls, then keep your eyes peeled for the 3700 level, this is the neck line of a possible double top formation.

I would suggest making use of the short rallies to get rid of your stocks and still keep liquid for the time being.

StockWatch (Jun 13-17, 2010): PSEi

PSEi –Weekly

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 4340 Support: 4180)

As of trading last week, we are still on sideways movement trading between the range of 4180 and 4340. There are more negative technical instances than positive ones, so it would still be best to keep liquid if you do not plan on trading the range.

First negative thing that can be seen on the chart is a possible triple top formation. Support line for this triple top is the 4180 level. If the index goes below that support line, possible downward target level would be around 4000.

Second negative thing that can be seen on the chart is the MACD on the daily chart which is about to cross below the center line. While on the weekly chart, we can also see the MACD about to cross below the signal line.
Third negative thing that can be seen on the stock, particularly visible on the weekly chart is the possibility of the 5th wave in the Elliot wave count as well as the inability of the index to create higher high.

For the positive, first, we are still above the support line of 4180 and the 65 day moving average is about to converge with that support level. This could provide strong support for the index cancelling out the triple top formation that is looming.

Second, the stochastics on the daily chart would most likely start to move upwards again, this could materialize if the first positive mentioned above happens.

While it is most likely that for next week we could expect a rally towards the resistance line, this is just a positive action on the index for the short term. The first and second positive items I have mentioned above will just cancel out the first negative item, but this still leaves us with a negative signal for the MACD on both daily and weekly charts and the 5th Elliot wave. The odds are stacked in favor of the bears, so exercise caution on your range trades.

StockWatch (Jun 06-10, 2011): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 4340 Support: 4180)

The index generally moved sideways with an upward bias last week, and as of last Friday, the upward movement stopped short of moving beyond the resistance line.

There is still no significant signal that can be seen from the index that would suggest that it would be able to break above the resistance line. As of current, there is higher possibility for the index to move sideways again with a downward bias by next week as it nears the resistance line. Expect further range trading next week between 4180 and 4340. I would still suggest keeping liquid for the moment until probably the index is able to move above the resistance line.

StockWatch (May 30-Jun 03, 2011): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 4340 Support: 4170)

The index continued to move downward at the start of last week, but was able to recoup losses on the last 2 trading days.

A question of whether this is already the continuation of the upward trend is still unanswered until it is able to break above previous high of 4340. As of current the pattern we are seeing now is a sideways movement trading between 4170 and 4340.

Most of the positive stocks last week were the index stocks and in general most of the other stocks did not react well to the 2 day index run. So for next week, keeping liquid is still best, but for those who would like to take advantage of the ranging action, it would be best to play only a small portion of your portfolio.

StockWatch (May 23-27, 2011):PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily Resistance: 4340 Support: 4260/4220)

The index just moved sideways last week, but the movement is marred with a lot of sell down action.

As I mentioned last week there is a potential for the index to form a double top or a head-and-shoulder formation. What I forgot to consider is that there is also a potential for the index to form a bullish ascending triangle. However, we are still to see higher lows to be formed for the ascending triangle. If the index continued to move lower towards 4200, this would somehow eliminate the possibility of the ascending triangle, giving more possibility for the double top or head-and-shoulder formation.

There is still no indication from either the stochastic or MACD that any bullish action is imminent, so continue to be liquid until we are able to see positive improvements on the index.