StockWatch (Sep 17-21, 2012): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily      Resistance: 5360         Support: 5230)

The index was able to gain some positive movement on the last trading day last week, but stopped short just below the support-turned-resistance line.

All indicators are confirming the recent positive movement.  We now only have the support-turned-resistance line to conquer and it is a wait and see moment if the index has the strength to sustain the recent upward movement and cross above that resistance line.

If the index is able to move above the resistance line, this can be a signal to get in the market once again.

Do watch out for the RSI, as it nears the overbought level.  If the index has the strength, RSI @70 would not even matter, but if otherwise, that RSI level can be a resistance for the index.

StockWatch (Sep 10-14, 2012): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily      Resistance: 5230/5320            Support: 5170/5110)

It has been three weeks now and the index is still moving sideways.  The general sentiment of the market, expressed by the chart is one of indecision.

Looking at the R-squared and Line regression slope, we could see the green line(linear regression slope) just a few ticks away from its centerline (green horizontal line), which means we may have a positive trend, albeit for the short term, but the blue line (r-squared) is now near its lowest.  So we might be having a positive movement for the index, but something that might not be sustainable.

The MACD seems to be confirming the positive movement as it is about to cross above its signal line.  But the small opening or distance of the MACD to the signal line seems to also confirm that the cross over might not have the strength to sustain its position.

Do watch out for the following resistance line on its way up: 5230- 50 day MA and 5320 the support-turned-resistance line connecting the troughs of June to July.

StockWatch (Sep 3-7, 2012): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily      Resistance:5230/5280             Support: 5110/4880)

The index broke down from the symmetrical triangle 2 weeks ago, and its downward target level is near 4880 which is also the line of the 200 day moving average.  

So the question is, will the index plunge down to the 280 day moving average? 

Currently, thanks to the 100 day moving average, the index is still hanging on that line. We could see that even if the index moves lower than the 100 day moving average, it still manages to close near the 100 day MA.  So there are still a relatively stronger force in the market that is preventing the index from further breaking down.

Where the market will head to on the short term is something that could not be ascertained, as we have been moving sideways on the short term for the past 2 weeks. 

On the long term outlook, we have a strong downward trend given that the index broke down not just from the symmetrical triangle, but the 10 and 50 day moving average.  If the index breaks above the 10 day moving average (or the 50 day MA), this is not yet a sign of resumption of the upward movement because we still have the previous support turned resistance line blocking the index’s way.

On the top of the chart, you could see a blue and green line. The blue line represents the R-squared and the green line represents the linear regression slope.   The green line shows the trend, a positive (above zero green line) or negative trend (below zero). The blue line shows the strength of the current trend. 

The green line confirms that we are on a downward trend. The blue line tells the strength of the downward trend, and right now, it confirms that the downward trend is strong, which re-affirms the break down from the symmetrical triangle, 10 and 50 day MA. 

What is interesting though is that the green line seems to be arching its way upward, which means we are having some positive trend, the big BUT is that the blue line seems to be moving downward.  Putting those two lines together means, we may be having some positive upward movement, BUT, the movement might not be that strong. 

Do watch out for a bounce and retracing of the index back to the resistance line near 5230.   If the index is unable to move above the resistance line, it confirms what the green and blue line seems to be indicating.

StockWatch (Aug 13-17, 2012): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily  Resistance: 5330  Support: 5210)

For the past 2 weeks the index has been moving sideways, mostly flat. Connecting the peaks and lows for June and July, it seems that the index may be in a symmetrical triangle formation. 

As of the moment, we may be seeing further downward movement from the index as the stochastic momentum index line is now below the moving average.   MACD also seems to be at a point where it is about to move below its moving average line.

Do watch out if the index moves below 5210, which is near the support line connecting the lowest level in June and July.  A move below the support line would indicate the symmetrical triangle breaking downward. 

StockWatch (Aug 5-9, 2012): PX

PX (Chart: Daily   Resistance: 23.10   Support: 19.86)

Even before the tailings leak that happened last week for Philex, this stock is already on its way down after breaking down from a symmetrical triangle.   The recent news only sealed the fate of this stock as volume increased selling the stock down.

With the symmetrical triangle, the downward target price for this stock is near 18.   Expect another dead cat bounce by next week as the stock is already below the RSI oversold level.