StockWatch (Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2013): PSEi, PNX

 PSEi Weekly

 PSEi (Chart: Daily  Resistance: 6240  Support: 6080)

In the past 2 weeks the index has been volatile.  We can see in the chart that for the past 2 weeks, the index has been intermittently, for every 2-3 days, having a black(red) candle stick.  If that pattern is reliable, the index is due for another black candle within the week.

Even if we do not base it from the above observed pattern, we can already visibly see a decline of confidence with the market, seeing the RSI, MACD and the Stochastics moving down.

In the weekly chart, a possible hanging man is spotted on the last trading day of last week.  A hanging man is a bearish reversal.  The indicators does not clearly display the same sentiment as all of them are moving upwards, but looking closer, we can see that the RSI is now very much overbought giving credence to the hanging man candle stick.

Right now the index is moving in a tight upward channel between 6080 to 6240.  The 10 day Moving average is also in the same range.  The 10-day moving average has not been breached lower since the start of the year, so we are expecting this to provide strong support.  The index may still move higher next week, but do watch out if the index moves lower than the 10day moving average.  Hold the buying for the moment, and if the index moves lower than the 10 day moving average, start to sell. 

PNX (Chart: Daily  Resistance: 10.40   Support: 9.60)

PNX caught my attention due to its unusual white candle accompanied by large volume.  This seems to be a breakout of a channel, but its target price is already reached.  Plus, the RSI is now overbought.

This does present a possible opportunity, but it is not yet recommendable to buy now given that the RSI is overbought and the target has been reached.  It is possible however that this transforms to a flag pattern, so do watch out for that possibility.

For those who are risk averse, you can buy this stock as long as it does not go below support of 9.60.

StockWatch (Jan 14-18, 2013) : PSEi, TA, NIKL

 PSEi (Chart: Daily    Resistance: 6100    Support: 5960/ 5860)

The index has once again created a new high last week.   We are generally still on an upward trend, but expect some downward to sideways movement by next week.

Next support is near 5960 which is the 10 day Moving Average.

A rising wedge seems to be forming in the index.  This is a bearish indicator, so keep an eye on other signals that may form in the coming weeks such as bearish divergence from the MACD.

 TA (Chart: Daily  Resistance: 1.50/1.55   Support: 1.40/1.30)

TA has a flag formation, with a target price of near 1.55.   As of current, the stock is now near its target price.  There may still be some push left in this stock and may still reach the 1.50 to 1.55 level by this week.   For those who have this stock, be prepared to get off the ride near 1.50.

NIKL (Chart: Daily  Resistance:  20.65   Support: 19.20)

NIKL has been continuously rising since last week and even showed bullishness by creating a gap up on the last trading day.

A very good thing for this stock is that there is a large amount of volume supporting the upward movement.   So expect the stock to rise further.

This stock is a buy, however,  looking at the RSI, the stock is now very much overbought, so expect downward to sideways movement.

For those who would like to take part of the action, I would recommend buying the dips as long as the stock can keep its price above 18.50.  Sell if it goes lower than 18.50

StockWatch (Dec 17-21, 2012): PSEi, PX

 PSEi (Chart: Daily    Resistance: 5866   Support: 5650/5511)

Looks like the index has now reached its highest level for the year when it started to fall last week.   The downward action of the index was expected because the market has long been overbought since the last week of November.

The index crossed lower than the 10 day Moving Average, the next support would be near 5650 which is an extension of the previous support since last Sept and then the next support level is at 5511 which is the 50 day Moving Average.

Expect a long sideways movement for the index on January once it finds support because it is unlikely that the index will continue with its recent bullish action, given that the MACD, RSI and Stochastics are all going or opening down.

PX (Chart: Daily   Resistance: 15.30    Support: 14.50/12.50)

Since the mine tailings disaster that PX got involved in, the stock was something to avoid.   But with the recent market activity for this stock,  it seems that there a new lease on this stock’s chances of making some big money.

Recent market activity showed a possible inverse head and shoulder formation. The left shoulder and head is already formed, and with the brewing downward action of the market, it might help with the right shoulder formation. But breakout might not happen until after 2 months, as the left shoulder and head took about 2 months each to be formed.

This is definitely something to watch out for, not just for the possible area formation, but also because of the recent spike in volume since the start of December.

If the inverse head and shoulder materializes, the possible upside target would be somewhere near 18.00.

StockWatch (Dec 3-7, 2012): PSEi

PSEi (Chart: Daily     Resistance: 5650/5700     Support: 5540)

The index made a new all time high last week, however, it has now reached RSI of 75 and may start pulling down by this week.

I would suggest put a hold on the buying activity.  If index pulls down and the support provided by the 10 day MA near 5540 is breached, you need to start considering selling portions of your portfolio.

StockWatch (Nov 26-30, 2012): PSEi, JGS, GLO

 PSEi (Chart:  Daily Resistance: 5580   Support: 5480)

The index broke out from the ascending triangle earlier than expected.  I was still expecting it to consolidate for another week before breaking out.  But trading sentiment seems to be positive, probably due to the yearly window dressing by fund managers and buy backs by the companies.

Fundamentally the companies are still the same and company profit is not the main reason why the stock market index is breaking new highs.   While there is an advantage of profiting from the new bullish state of the market, do not however expect that this will last long.  Usually, by Jan or Feb, the stock market goes down again after the window dressing period is over.

When the RSI reaches 70, expect a pull back to happen with the index anytime by first week of December.

JGS (Chart: Daily   Resistance: 38.50    Support: 35.25)

Last week JGS had a sudden increase in volume and price creating a possible flag/pennant area pattern.

As long as the stock does not go below the 10 day moving average or around 36 price level, this stock is a good candidate to acquire considering the possible pennant or flag area pattern, which could take the stock near 45 giving a possible 10% return in a short span of time.

 GLO (Chart:  Daily    Resistance:  1150    Support: 1121)

There seems to be something brewing with GLO.   The stock has been consolidating for the past 5-6 months and it looks like in 2- 3 weeks time, something will happen to this stock.   Although I am not sure what will happen as it could either be positive of negative considering the symmetrical triangle the stock has been manifesting in its consolidation.
If a break out happens, we can see this stock moving towards 1400 level, otherwise, this could go as low as 900.